Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
53
Up 31%
$8.5K
$-17.2K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 53 top traders (30%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.6K | 56% 177-140 (317) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 33% 31-62 (93) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 470-569 (1039) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 90¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$245.07 | 48% 1242-1341 (2583) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 92.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$48.24 | 60% 686-457 (1143) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 67¢ | $734.45 | $1.1K | +$361.7 | 43% 732-958 (1690) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$899.23 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 75.3¢ | $415.96 | $319.75 | -$96.21 | 46% 655-779 (1434) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 68.8¢ | $251.75 | $262.17 | +$10.41 | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 83.2¢ | $229.93 | $257.86 | +$27.92 | 50% 541-539 (1080) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 69.7¢ | $224.59 | $258.51 | +$33.92 | 42% 474-649 (1123) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 67.6¢ | $200.72 | $249.04 | +$48.33 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 86.3¢ | $178.16 | $164 | -$14.16 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 78.4¢ | $171.34 | $140.25 | -$31.1 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 70.6¢ | $120.28 | $146.08 | +$25.8 | 58% 622-451 (1073) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 88.1¢ | $150.09 | $120.37 | -$29.72 | 51% 524-507 (1031) |
BO bosona | Downavg 88.8¢ | $106.6 | $120 | +$13.4 | 50% 4114-4061 (8175) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 78.9¢ | $99.55 | $108.57 | +$9.02 | 49% 3525-3636 (7161) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 99¢ | $99 | $100 | +$1 | 52% 666-603 (1269) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 85.3¢ | $90.73 | $92.99 | +$3.9 | 53% 563-497 (1060) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 78.5¢ | $78.51 | $95.61 | +$17.1 | 59% 643-441 (1084) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $60.46 | $81.66 | +$21.2 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $87.4 | $80.98 | -$4.67 | 46% 985-1137 (2122) |
Invested
$8,705
Value
—
PnL
$-7.6K
Record
56%
177-140 (317)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
33%
31-62 (93)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
470-569 (1039)
Invested
$2,199.41
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$245.07
Record
48%
1242-1341 (2583)
Invested
$1,784.05
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$48.24
Record
60%
686-457 (1143)
machinelearnedInvested
$734.45
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$361.7
Record
43%
732-958 (1690)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$899.23
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$415.96
Value
$319.75
PnL
-$96.21
Record
46%
655-779 (1434)
Invested
$251.75
Value
$262.17
PnL
+$10.41
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
Invested
$229.93
Value
$257.86
PnL
+$27.92
Record
50%
541-539 (1080)
Invested
$224.59
Value
$258.51
PnL
+$33.92
Record
42%
474-649 (1123)
Invested
$200.72
Value
$249.04
PnL
+$48.33
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$178.16
Value
$164
PnL
-$14.16
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$171.34
Value
$140.25
PnL
-$31.1
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$120.28
Value
$146.08
PnL
+$25.8
Record
58%
622-451 (1073)
Invested
$150.09
Value
$120.37
PnL
-$29.72
Record
51%
524-507 (1031)
Invested
$106.6
Value
$120
PnL
+$13.4
Record
50%
4114-4061 (8175)
Invested
$99.55
Value
$108.57
PnL
+$9.02
Record
49%
3525-3636 (7161)
Invested
$99
Value
$100
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
666-603 (1269)
Invested
$90.73
Value
$92.99
PnL
+$3.9
Record
53%
563-497 (1060)
Invested
$78.51
Value
$95.61
PnL
+$17.1
Record
59%
643-441 (1084)
Invested
$60.46
Value
$81.66
PnL
+$21.2
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
Invested
$87.4
Value
$80.98
PnL
-$4.67
Record
46%
985-1137 (2122)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.4K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.7K
machinelearned
Down — $1.1K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $319.75