Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 28% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
57
Down 28%
$10.1K
$-16.0K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 57 top traders (28%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.4K | 56% 177-140 (317) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 33% 31-62 (93) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 470-569 (1039) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 94.3¢ | $2.8K | $3.0K | +$170.27 | 60% 686-457 (1143) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$923.6 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BO bosona | Upavg 89.3¢ | $1.2K | $631.08 | -$81.15 | 50% 4114-4061 (8175) |
AL almach | Upavg 88.9¢ | $1.1K | $642.45 | -$43.22 | 48% 875-935 (1810) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
MO mo-money | Upavg 86.7¢ | $509.19 | $496.9 | -$12.28 | 48% 875-948 (1823) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 66.2¢ | $374.49 | $413.39 | +$38.9 | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 65.5¢ | $381.67 | $339.52 | -$42.15 | 42% 474-649 (1123) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 91¢ | $285.01 | $298.33 | +$13.32 | 50% 541-539 (1080) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 74¢ | $216.38 | $274.5 | +$58.12 | 50% 498-507 (1005) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 81.9¢ | $227.88 | $261.81 | +$48.28 | 58% 622-451 (1073) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 72.4¢ | $244.84 | $240.99 | -$3.85 | 46% 655-779 (1434) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 90¢ | $230.92 | $226.43 | -$4.49 | 43% 732-958 (1690) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 65.1¢ | $266.99 | $218.57 | -$6.63 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 60.5¢ | $180.78 | $217.26 | +$36.48 | 44% 511-652 (1163) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 77.4¢ | $154.92 | $189.93 | +$35.02 | 60% 636-425 (1061) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 67.2¢ | $138.17 | $152.39 | +$38.72 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 75¢ | $112.5 | $150 | +$37.5 | 74% 1116-401 (1517) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 81.4¢ | $138.17 | $133.83 | -$4.34 | 59% 643-441 (1084) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 52.2¢ | $70.5 | $132.43 | +$61.93 | 51% 513-499 (1012) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 76.4¢ | $104.74 | $112.81 | +$12.14 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
Invested
$8,727
Value
—
PnL
$-7.4K
Record
56%
177-140 (317)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
33%
31-62 (93)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
470-569 (1039)
Invested
$2,805.77
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$170.27
Record
60%
686-457 (1143)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$923.6
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Invested
$1,230.11
Value
$631.08
PnL
-$81.15
Record
50%
4114-4061 (8175)
Invested
$1,093.44
Value
$642.45
PnL
-$43.22
Record
48%
875-935 (1810)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$509.19
Value
$496.9
PnL
-$12.28
Record
48%
875-948 (1823)
Invested
$374.49
Value
$413.39
PnL
+$38.9
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
Invested
$381.67
Value
$339.52
PnL
-$42.15
Record
42%
474-649 (1123)
Invested
$285.01
Value
$298.33
PnL
+$13.32
Record
50%
541-539 (1080)
Invested
$216.38
Value
$274.5
PnL
+$58.12
Record
50%
498-507 (1005)
Invested
$227.88
Value
$261.81
PnL
+$48.28
Record
58%
622-451 (1073)
Invested
$244.84
Value
$240.99
PnL
-$3.85
Record
46%
655-779 (1434)
machinelearnedInvested
$230.92
Value
$226.43
PnL
-$4.49
Record
43%
732-958 (1690)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$266.99
Value
$218.57
PnL
-$6.63
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$180.78
Value
$217.26
PnL
+$36.48
Record
44%
511-652 (1163)
Invested
$154.92
Value
$189.93
PnL
+$35.02
Record
60%
636-425 (1061)
Invested
$138.17
Value
$152.39
PnL
+$38.72
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
BoneOhioInvested
$112.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$37.5
Record
74%
1116-401 (1517)
Invested
$138.17
Value
$133.83
PnL
-$4.34
Record
59%
643-441 (1084)
Invested
$70.5
Value
$132.43
PnL
+$61.93
Record
51%
513-499 (1012)
Invested
$104.74
Value
$112.81
PnL
+$12.14
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $3.0K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $631.08
almach
Up — $642.45
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
mo-money
Up — $496.9