Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
54
Down 56%
7 arb excluded
$10.0K
$-17.7K
Smart Money Signal
30 of 54 top traders (56%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-6.7K | 56% 177-140 (317) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 33% 31-62 (93) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 470-569 (1039) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 90.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$88.88 | 60% 686-457 (1143) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 71.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$3.15 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
BO bosona | Upavg 89.6¢ | $2.2K | $851.12 | -$773.29 | 50% 4114-4061 (8175) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 34.1¢ | $530.69 | — | -$530.69 | 46% 655-779 (1434) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 49.5¢ | $531.76 | $541.52 | +$9.76 | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 87.7¢ | $545.66 | $490 | -$55.66 | 50% 541-539 (1080) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 36.9¢ | $228.8 | — | -$228.8 | 43% 732-958 (1690) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 85.6¢ | $431.17 | $385.54 | -$45.63 | 44% 447-568 (1015) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Upavg 53.3¢ | $381.56 | $394.24 | +$12.68 | 50% 504-514 (1018) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.3¢ | $210.15 | $394.24 | +$184.09 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.7¢ | $171.41 | — | -$171.41 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 72.6¢ | $411.16 | $356.38 | -$54.78 | 51% 513-499 (1012) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 85¢ | $550.15 | — | -$550.15 | 48% 875-935 (1810) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 37.4¢ | $366.05 | — | -$366.05 | 42% 474-649 (1123) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 48.3¢ | $244.55 | $255.43 | +$10.88 | 44% 511-652 (1163) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 51.6¢ | $220.89 | $274.15 | +$53.27 | 56% 592-472 (1064) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $196.81 | $300 | +$103.19 | 48% 487-520 (1007) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.5¢ | $142.61 | $300 | +$157.39 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.2¢ | $54.2 | — | -$54.2 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 29.4¢ | $185.34 | $250.31 | +$123.09 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 57.9¢ | $236.61 | — | -$236.61 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 68.9¢ | $216.61 | $219.15 | +$2.54 | 53% 563-497 (1060) |
RA rabadabadoo | Upavg 66.5¢ | $182.17 | $174.51 | -$7.66 | 46% 985-1137 (2122) |
 ohioism | Upavg 48.4¢ | $93.25 | $155.74 | +$73.44 | 48% 1361-1500 (2861) |
Invested
$8,587
Value
—
PnL
$-6.7K
Record
56%
177-140 (317)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
33%
31-62 (93)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
470-569 (1039)
Invested
$2,261.23
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$88.88
Record
60%
686-457 (1143)
Invested
$1,057.02
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$3.15
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$2,217.14
Value
$851.12
PnL
-$773.29
Record
50%
4114-4061 (8175)
Invested
$530.69
Value
—
PnL
-$530.69
Record
46%
655-779 (1434)
Invested
$531.76
Value
$541.52
PnL
+$9.76
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$545.66
Value
$490
PnL
-$55.66
Record
50%
541-539 (1080)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$228.8
Value
—
PnL
-$228.8
Record
43%
732-958 (1690)
Invested
$431.17
Value
$385.54
PnL
-$45.63
Record
44%
447-568 (1015)
Invested
$381.56
Value
$394.24
PnL
+$12.68
Record
50%
504-514 (1018)
Both legs:
Invested
$411.16
Value
$356.38
PnL
-$54.78
Record
51%
513-499 (1012)
Invested
$550.15
Value
—
PnL
-$550.15
Record
48%
875-935 (1810)
Invested
$366.05
Value
—
PnL
-$366.05
Record
42%
474-649 (1123)
Invested
$244.55
Value
$255.43
PnL
+$10.88
Record
44%
511-652 (1163)
Invested
$220.89
Value
$274.15
PnL
+$53.27
Record
56%
592-472 (1064)
Invested
$196.81
Value
$300
PnL
+$103.19
Record
48%
487-520 (1007)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$185.34
Value
$250.31
PnL
+$123.09
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$236.61
Value
—
PnL
-$236.61
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$216.61
Value
$219.15
PnL
+$2.54
Record
53%
563-497 (1060)
Invested
$182.17
Value
$174.51
PnL
-$7.66
Record
46%
985-1137 (2122)
ohioismInvested
$93.25
Value
$155.74
PnL
+$73.44
Record
48%
1361-1500 (2861)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $2.3K
blue.birds
Up — $1.1K
bosona
Up — $851.12
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $541.52
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500