Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 51% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Up 52%
14 arb excluded
$31.4K
$-8.2K
Smart Money Signal
28 of 55 top traders (51%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.5K | $6.0K | +$194.44 | 56% 177-140 (317) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $3.1K | — | $-3.1K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $3.0K | $6.0K | +$3.3K | |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.3K | +$400.96 | 33% 31-62 (93) |
TH THG. | Upavg 98.3¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$58.61 | 99% 557-3 (560) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $2.8K | +$535.4 | 45% 470-569 (1039) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 57.8¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | -$120.61 | 46% 655-779 (1434) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $2.2K | $1.3K | -$888.27 | 60% 686-457 (1143) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.2¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.6¢ | $579.86 | $1.3K | +$690.82 | |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 49.7¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.8K | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 81.9¢ | $2.3K | — | $-2.3K | 48% 875-948 (1823) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 62.3¢ | $913.72 | $1.4K | +$584.04 | 20% 254-1040 (1294) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.2 | 49% 936-980 (1916) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 46.2¢ | $878.06 | $1.0K | +$131.1 | 42% 474-649 (1123) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.9¢ | $412.12 | — | -$412.12 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.2¢ | $465.93 | $1.0K | +$543.22 | |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $925.07 | +$20.76 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BO bosona | Upavg 70.2¢ | $1.0K | $746.99 | -$168.79 | 50% 4114-4061 (8175) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 56.3¢ | $643.56 | $654.33 | +$10.78 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.6¢ | $275.05 | — | -$275.05 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.3¢ | $368.5 | $654.33 | +$285.83 | |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 50.6¢ | $482.94 | — | -$477.96 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 57.3¢ | $521.71 | $554.17 | +$34.76 | 50% 541-539 (1080) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 62.8¢ | $607.42 | $523.68 | -$83.75 | 56% 592-472 (1064) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 59.6¢ | $610.49 | — | -$454.12 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Downavg 56.7¢ | $564.29 | — | -$563.11 | 53% 563-497 (1060) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 46.3¢ | $413.55 | $448.03 | +$34.49 | 44% 511-652 (1163) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.3¢ | $217.94 | — | -$217.94 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.7¢ | $195.6 | $448.03 | +$252.43 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 67.1¢ | $328 | $413.18 | +$85.18 | 51% 513-499 (1012) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 75.9¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.1K | 48% 875-935 (1810) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 36.5¢ | $271.54 | — | -$271.54 | 53% 4267-3715 (7982) |
Invested
$8,517
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$194.44
Record
56%
177-140 (317)
Both legs:
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$400.96
Record
33%
31-62 (93)
Invested
$3,441.39
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$58.61
Record
99%
557-3 (560)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$535.4
Record
45%
470-569 (1039)
Invested
$2,209.07
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$120.61
Record
46%
655-779 (1434)
Invested
$2,158.94
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$888.27
Record
60%
686-457 (1143)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,750.44
Value
—
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
Invested
$2,258.03
Value
—
PnL
$-2.3K
Record
48%
875-948 (1823)
NIULAI4Invested
$913.72
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$584.04
Record
20%
254-1040 (1294)
Invested
$1,306.91
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.2
Record
49%
936-980 (1916)
Invested
$878.06
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$131.1
Record
42%
474-649 (1123)
Both legs:
Invested
$950
Value
$925.07
PnL
+$20.76
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Invested
$1,045.86
Value
$746.99
PnL
-$168.79
Record
50%
4114-4061 (8175)
Invested
$643.56
Value
$654.33
PnL
+$10.78
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Both legs:
Invested
$482.94
Value
—
PnL
-$477.96
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$521.71
Value
$554.17
PnL
+$34.76
Record
50%
541-539 (1080)
Invested
$607.42
Value
$523.68
PnL
-$83.75
Record
56%
592-472 (1064)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$610.49
Value
—
PnL
-$454.12
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$564.29
Value
—
PnL
-$563.11
Record
53%
563-497 (1060)
Invested
$413.55
Value
$448.03
PnL
+$34.49
Record
44%
511-652 (1163)
Both legs:
Invested
$328
Value
$413.18
PnL
+$85.18
Record
51%
513-499 (1012)
Invested
$1,701.32
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
48%
875-935 (1810)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$271.54
Value
—
PnL
-$271.54
Record
53%
4267-3715 (7982)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
ARBArbitrage — excluded
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.3K
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
Up — $2.8K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $2.1K
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
CTRDown — $0
NIULAI4
Up — $1.4K
0x50f7
Up — $1.3K