Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Down 68%
5 arb excluded
$52.4K
$-8.1K
Smart Money Signal
36 of 53 top traders (68%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH Sharky6999 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $25.0K | $25.0K | +$25 | 99% 84-1 (85) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.5K | $8.1K | +$76.78 | 56% 177-140 (317) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 33% 31-62 (93) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | +$4.47 | 49% 936-980 (1916) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 557-3 (560) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 45% 470-569 (1039) |
RO Rock.San | Downavg 99.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$2.64 | 93% 85-6 (91) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 94.7¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$45.64 | 60% 686-457 (1143) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$2.74 | 98% 2405-48 (2453) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $905 | -$8.45 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $452.5 | $905 | +$462.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $471.35 | — | -$471.2 | |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
 machinelearned | Downavg 73.7¢ | $413.12 | $497.74 | +$84.62 | 43% 732-958 (1690) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 47.1¢ | $198.49 | $293.04 | +$99.77 | 42% 474-649 (1123) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 64.9¢ | $281.17 | $280.71 | -$0.47 | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 56.8¢ | $212.89 | $267.5 | +$54.61 | 44% 511-652 (1163) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 62.4¢ | $188.33 | $232.82 | +$44.49 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 61.6¢ | $252.73 | $215 | -$37.73 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 71.7¢ | $160.08 | $156.86 | +$7.37 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $93.73 | $99.68 | +$5.95 | 60% 2531-1695 (4226) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 79.8¢ | $93.83 | $95.51 | +$1.68 | 50% 541-539 (1080) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR<$100 | Upavg 61.1¢ | $91.64 | — | -$91.64 | 50% 498-507 (1005) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 86.9¢ | $97.86 | $78 | -$19.86 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 40.2¢ | $71 | $60 | -$11 | 48% 661-703 (1364) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.7¢ | $28.6 | $60 | +$31.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.2¢ | $42.4 | — | -$42.4 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $41.98 | $73.32 | +$31.34 | 59% 643-441 (1084) |
Invested
$24,978
Value
$25.0K
PnL
+$25
Record
99%
84-1 (85)
Invested
$8,509
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$76.78
Record
56%
177-140 (317)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
33%
31-62 (93)
Invested
$4,463.54
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$4.47
Record
49%
936-980 (1916)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
557-3 (560)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
45%
470-569 (1039)
Invested
$2,632.93
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$2.64
Record
93%
85-6 (91)
Invested
$2,281.69
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$45.64
Record
60%
686-457 (1143)
Invested
$1,470.26
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$2.74
Record
98%
2405-48 (2453)
Invested
$950
Value
$905
PnL
-$8.45
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
machinelearnedInvested
$413.12
Value
$497.74
PnL
+$84.62
Record
43%
732-958 (1690)
Invested
$198.49
Value
$293.04
PnL
+$99.77
Record
42%
474-649 (1123)
Invested
$281.17
Value
$280.71
PnL
-$0.47
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
Invested
$212.89
Value
$267.5
PnL
+$54.61
Record
44%
511-652 (1163)
Invested
$188.33
Value
$232.82
PnL
+$44.49
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$252.73
Value
$215
PnL
-$37.73
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$160.08
Value
$156.86
PnL
+$7.37
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
Invested
$93.73
Value
$99.68
PnL
+$5.95
Record
60%
2531-1695 (4226)
Invested
$93.83
Value
$95.51
PnL
+$1.68
Record
50%
541-539 (1080)
Invested
$91.64
Value
—
PnL
-$91.64
Record
50%
498-507 (1005)
Invested
$97.86
Value
$78
PnL
-$19.86
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$71
Value
$60
PnL
-$11
Record
48%
661-703 (1364)
Both legs:
Invested
$41.98
Value
$73.32
PnL
+$31.34
Record
59%
643-441 (1084)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Sharky6999
Down — $25.0K
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.1K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $4.5K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Rock.San
Down — $2.6K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.2K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded