Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$25.2K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 52 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $7.7K | +$20.55 | 56% 177-140 (317) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | -$0.61 | 33% 31-62 (93) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.4K | -$33.86 | 45% 470-569 (1039) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$14.22 | 99% 557-3 (560) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$902.27 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 65.5¢ | $537.84 | $684.11 | +$146.26 | 43% 732-958 (1690) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 72.3¢ | $625.68 | $642.01 | +$16.33 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 57.4¢ | $556.37 | $559.77 | +$3.4 | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 88¢ | $502.64 | $512.75 | +$10.11 | 50% 541-539 (1080) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 58¢ | $400.6 | $427.43 | +$26.83 | 60% 686-457 (1143) |
BO bosona | Downavg 80.9¢ | $343.8 | $424.95 | +$81.15 | 50% 4114-4061 (8175) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $472.33 | $408.98 | -$30.54 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 82.7¢ | $326.55 | $376.22 | +$51.17 | 53% 563-497 (1060) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 71.3¢ | $394.83 | $344.17 | -$18.4 | 46% 655-779 (1434) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 59¢ | $410.64 | $343.29 | -$64.94 | 42% 474-649 (1123) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 66¢ | $196.72 | $242.92 | +$46.19 | 59% 643-441 (1084) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 67.3¢ | $162.37 | $215.73 | +$53.36 | 37% 513-891 (1404) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $184.16 | $160 | -$24.16 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.7¢ | $82.8 | $160 | +$77.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47¢ | $101.36 | — | -$101.36 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 74.2¢ | $148.62 | $200.32 | +$51.7 | 48% 875-948 (1823) |
RA rabadabadoo | Downavg 57.8¢ | $177.6 | $170.67 | -$6.93 | 46% 985-1137 (2122) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 77¢ | $129.45 | $168.22 | +$38.77 | 52% 666-603 (1269) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 64.9¢ | $213.6 | $155.21 | -$14.39 | 53% 4267-3715 (7982) |
AL almach | Downavg 74.4¢ | $118.12 | $158.69 | +$40.57 | 48% 875-935 (1810) |
Invested
$8,677
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$20.55
Record
56%
177-140 (317)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$0.61
Record
33%
31-62 (93)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$33.86
Record
45%
470-569 (1039)
Invested
$1,407.75
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$14.22
Record
99%
557-3 (560)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$902.27
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
machinelearnedInvested
$537.84
Value
$684.11
PnL
+$146.26
Record
43%
732-958 (1690)
Invested
$625.68
Value
$642.01
PnL
+$16.33
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$556.37
Value
$559.77
PnL
+$3.4
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
Invested
$502.64
Value
$512.75
PnL
+$10.11
Record
50%
541-539 (1080)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$400.6
Value
$427.43
PnL
+$26.83
Record
60%
686-457 (1143)
Invested
$343.8
Value
$424.95
PnL
+$81.15
Record
50%
4114-4061 (8175)
Invested
$472.33
Value
$408.98
PnL
-$30.54
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$326.55
Value
$376.22
PnL
+$51.17
Record
53%
563-497 (1060)
Invested
$394.83
Value
$344.17
PnL
-$18.4
Record
46%
655-779 (1434)
Invested
$410.64
Value
$343.29
PnL
-$64.94
Record
42%
474-649 (1123)
Invested
$196.72
Value
$242.92
PnL
+$46.19
Record
59%
643-441 (1084)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$162.37
Value
$215.73
PnL
+$53.36
Record
37%
513-891 (1404)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$184.16
Value
$160
PnL
-$24.16
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Both legs:
Invested
$148.62
Value
$200.32
PnL
+$51.7
Record
48%
875-948 (1823)
Invested
$177.6
Value
$170.67
PnL
-$6.93
Record
46%
985-1137 (2122)
Invested
$129.45
Value
$168.22
PnL
+$38.77
Record
52%
666-603 (1269)
FairValueMachineInvested
$213.6
Value
$155.21
PnL
-$14.39
Record
53%
4267-3715 (7982)
Invested
$118.12
Value
$158.69
PnL
+$40.57
Record
48%
875-935 (1810)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.7K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.8K
machine-earning
Down — $3.4K
THG.
Down — $1.4K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
Down — $684.11
blue.birds
Down — $642.01
stepahead
Down — $559.77
EZTRADENL2
Down — $512.75
ByteBadger92
Down — $500