Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
53
Up 30%
$9.5K
$-16.5K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 53 top traders (30%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-7.7K | 56% 177-140 (317) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 33% 31-62 (93) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 470-569 (1039) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$22.13 | 99% 557-3 (560) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$4.15 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 88.5¢ | $695.74 | $786.38 | +$90.64 | 43% 732-958 (1690) |
BO bosona | Downavg 83.6¢ | $594.66 | $711.24 | +$116.58 | 50% 4114-4061 (8175) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 90.2¢ | $607.04 | $672.67 | +$65.63 | 48% 875-948 (1823) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 87.2¢ | $397.95 | $437.09 | +$39.14 | 46% 655-779 (1434) |
AL almach | Downavg 87.7¢ | $415.98 | $474.09 | +$58.11 | 48% 875-935 (1810) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 82.5¢ | $485.46 | $362.69 | -$122.78 | 60% 686-457 (1143) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 87.4¢ | $368.72 | $375.67 | +$6.95 | 50% 541-539 (1080) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 86.8¢ | $350.51 | $351.37 | +$0.86 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 80.5¢ | $302.68 | $327.13 | +$24.45 | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 94¢ | $285 | $300 | +$15 | 54% 243-208 (451) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 84.3¢ | $146.65 | $170.05 | +$23.4 | 55% 1432-1173 (2605) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 79¢ | $131.13 | $135.21 | +$22.8 | 52% 610-566 (1176) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 81¢ | $113.5 | $140.13 | +$26.63 | 59% 643-441 (1084) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 87.7¢ | $117.45 | $124.38 | +$6.94 | 53% 563-497 (1060) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 81.4¢ | $101.96 | $125.21 | +$23.25 | 58% 622-451 (1073) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 89.3¢ | $86.29 | $85 | +$0.23 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 78.5¢ | $63.4 | $80 | +$16.6 | 60% 636-425 (1061) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $76.26 | $68.88 | -$7.38 | 42% 474-649 (1123) |
Invested
$8,938
Value
—
PnL
$-7.7K
Record
56%
177-140 (317)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
33%
31-62 (93)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
470-569 (1039)
Invested
$2,191.2
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$22.13
Record
99%
557-3 (560)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$4.15
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
machinelearnedInvested
$695.74
Value
$786.38
PnL
+$90.64
Record
43%
732-958 (1690)
Invested
$594.66
Value
$711.24
PnL
+$116.58
Record
50%
4114-4061 (8175)
Invested
$607.04
Value
$672.67
PnL
+$65.63
Record
48%
875-948 (1823)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$397.95
Value
$437.09
PnL
+$39.14
Record
46%
655-779 (1434)
Invested
$415.98
Value
$474.09
PnL
+$58.11
Record
48%
875-935 (1810)
Invested
$485.46
Value
$362.69
PnL
-$122.78
Record
60%
686-457 (1143)
Invested
$368.72
Value
$375.67
PnL
+$6.95
Record
50%
541-539 (1080)
Invested
$350.51
Value
$351.37
PnL
+$0.86
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$302.68
Value
$327.13
PnL
+$24.45
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
Invested
$285
Value
$300
PnL
+$15
Record
54%
243-208 (451)
Invested
$146.65
Value
$170.05
PnL
+$23.4
Record
55%
1432-1173 (2605)
Invested
$131.13
Value
$135.21
PnL
+$22.8
Record
52%
610-566 (1176)
Invested
$113.5
Value
$140.13
PnL
+$26.63
Record
59%
643-441 (1084)
Invested
$117.45
Value
$124.38
PnL
+$6.94
Record
53%
563-497 (1060)
Invested
$101.96
Value
$125.21
PnL
+$23.25
Record
58%
622-451 (1073)
Invested
$86.29
Value
$85
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$63.4
Value
$80
PnL
+$16.6
Record
60%
636-425 (1061)
Invested
$76.26
Value
$68.88
PnL
-$7.38
Record
42%
474-649 (1123)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $2.2K
soswald1
Down — $950
machinelearned
Down — $786.38
bosona
Down — $711.24
mo-money
Down — $672.67
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0