Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 87% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Up 87%
2 arb excluded
$24.7K
$-6.1K
Smart Money Signal
52 of 60 top traders (87%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.0K | 56% 177-140 (317) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | +$140.39 | 33% 31-62 (93) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 557-3 (560) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.5K | +$164.46 | 45% 470-569 (1039) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 82¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$257.24 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$22.68 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $475 | $950 | +$475 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $433.74 | — | -$452.32 | |
ST stepahead | Upavg 79.2¢ | $849.16 | $892.35 | +$43.19 | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 90.7¢ | $798.29 | $804.56 | +$6.27 | 50% 541-539 (1080) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 76.3¢ | $525.62 | $529.28 | +$3.67 | 37% 513-891 (1404) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 82.9¢ | $479.2 | $510.92 | +$31.71 | 46% 655-779 (1434) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 82.5¢ | $465.91 | $480.1 | +$17.65 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 71.5¢ | $452.32 | $460.53 | +$8.21 | 60% 686-457 (1143) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $541.38 | $365.82 | -$175.56 | 43% 732-958 (1690) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71.3¢ | $260.95 | $365.82 | +$104.86 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23¢ | $280.42 | — | -$280.42 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.1¢ | $390.63 | $402.16 | +$11.53 | 98% 2405-48 (2453) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 81.4¢ | $422.27 | $374.52 | -$47.74 | 42% 474-649 (1123) |
AL almach | Upavg 84.5¢ | $328.98 | $371.85 | +$42.87 | 48% 875-935 (1810) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 69.8¢ | $315.67 | $340.65 | +$24.98 | 51% 524-507 (1031) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 80.3¢ | $339.5 | $326.03 | -$13.47 | 44% 511-652 (1163) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 93.8¢ | $282.03 | $296.13 | +$14.1 | 20% 254-1040 (1294) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 85.8¢ | $247.86 | $279.81 | +$32.46 | 53% 563-497 (1060) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 63.2¢ | $351.46 | $256.01 | +$14.38 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 85.9¢ | $241.72 | $261.72 | +$20 | 50% 504-514 (1018) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 75.9¢ | $220.58 | $256.13 | +$50.11 | 55% 1432-1173 (2605) |
Invested
$8,844
Value
—
PnL
$-7.0K
Record
56%
177-140 (317)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$140.39
Record
33%
31-62 (93)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
557-3 (560)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$164.46
Record
45%
470-569 (1039)
Invested
$1,171.85
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$257.24
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$22.68
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Both legs:
Invested
$849.16
Value
$892.35
PnL
+$43.19
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
Invested
$798.29
Value
$804.56
PnL
+$6.27
Record
50%
541-539 (1080)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$525.62
Value
$529.28
PnL
+$3.67
Record
37%
513-891 (1404)
Invested
$479.2
Value
$510.92
PnL
+$31.71
Record
46%
655-779 (1434)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$465.91
Value
$480.1
PnL
+$17.65
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$452.32
Value
$460.53
PnL
+$8.21
Record
60%
686-457 (1143)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$541.38
Value
$365.82
PnL
-$175.56
Record
43%
732-958 (1690)
Both legs:
Invested
$390.63
Value
$402.16
PnL
+$11.53
Record
98%
2405-48 (2453)
Invested
$422.27
Value
$374.52
PnL
-$47.74
Record
42%
474-649 (1123)
Invested
$328.98
Value
$371.85
PnL
+$42.87
Record
48%
875-935 (1810)
Invested
$315.67
Value
$340.65
PnL
+$24.98
Record
51%
524-507 (1031)
Invested
$339.5
Value
$326.03
PnL
-$13.47
Record
44%
511-652 (1163)
NIULAI4Invested
$282.03
Value
$296.13
PnL
+$14.1
Record
20%
254-1040 (1294)
Invested
$247.86
Value
$279.81
PnL
+$32.46
Record
53%
563-497 (1060)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$351.46
Value
$256.01
PnL
+$14.38
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$241.72
Value
$261.72
PnL
+$20
Record
50%
504-514 (1018)
Invested
$220.58
Value
$256.13
PnL
+$50.11
Record
55%
1432-1173 (2605)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.8K
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
Up — $3.5K
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.4K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Up — $892.35
EZTRADENL2
Up — $804.56
x-MoneyForWhiskas
Up — $529.28
CrouchPredictions
Up — $510.92