Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 37%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$-12.8K

Smart Money Signal

21 of 55 top traders (38%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares14,982

Combined PnL$-13.2K

Down34 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares10,101

Combined PnL+$433.02

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	—	$-7.2K	56% 177-140 (317)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.9K	33% 31-62 (93)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$76.31	45% 470-569 (1039)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 83.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$80.47	60% 686-457 (1143)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$1.65	51% 2266-2202 (4468)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$475	$950	+$475
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$472.5	—	-$473.35
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 71.9¢	$432.19	$433.52	+$1.33	51% 513-499 (1012)
ST stepahead	Downavg 54.3¢	$299.31	$350.67	+$51.36	55% 3964-3302 (7266)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$279.95	$395.29	+$115.34	50% 504-514 (1018)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.4¢	$187.32	$395.29	+$207.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.2¢	$92.64	—	-$92.64
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 91.5¢	$291.43	$295.09	+$4.12	50% 541-539 (1080)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70¢	$283.29	$262.51	-$20.78	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 66.9¢	$198.99	$240.94	+$41.94	52% 4164-3913 (8077)
BO bosona	Downavg 69.3¢	$229.89	$242.81	+$12.92	50% 4114-4061 (8175)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 72.3¢	$259.38	$213.93	-$45.45	37% 513-891 (1404)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 57.7¢	$214.66	$199.99	-$14.67	52% 1456-1332 (2788)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 75.9¢	$180.27	$181.02	+$0.76	53% 563-497 (1060)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$188.46	$186.16	-$2.31	42% 474-649 (1123)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.7¢	$98.05	$186.16	+$88.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.2¢	$90.41	—	-$90.41
OhioAICTR	Upavg 47.1¢	$197.18	—	-$197.18	49% 459-482 (941)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 68.6¢	$160.14	$162.93	+$2.79	66% 2369-1200 (3569)
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 59.2¢	$88.18	$148.87	+$60.69	48% 383-420 (803)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 43.4¢	$301.87	—	-$301.87	43% 732-958 (1690)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 51.2¢	$59.56	$116.36	+$56.8	53% 4267-3715 (7982)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 66¢	$112.92	$114.09	+$1.17	44% 511-652 (1163)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 63.2¢	$126	$112.37	-$13.63	55% 1432-1173 (2605)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,570

Value

—

PnL

$-7.2K

Record

56%

177-140 (317)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

33%

31-62 (93)

machine-earning

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$76.31

Record

45%

470-569 (1039)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,253.67

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$80.47

Record

60%

686-457 (1143)

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$1.65

Record

51%

2266-2202 (4468)

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

QuantumPebble673

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$432.19

Value

$433.52

PnL

+$1.33

Record

51%

513-499 (1012)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$299.31

Value

$350.67

PnL

+$51.36

Record

55%

3964-3302 (7266)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$279.95

Value

$395.29

PnL

+$115.34

Record

50%

504-514 (1018)

Both legs:

Down$187.3247.4¢+$207.97

Up$92.6443.2¢-$92.64

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$291.43

Value

$295.09

PnL

+$4.12

Record

50%

541-539 (1080)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$283.29

Value

$262.51

PnL

-$20.78

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$198.99

Value

$240.94

PnL

+$41.94

Record

52%

4164-3913 (8077)

bosona

Down

Invested

$229.89

Value

$242.81

PnL

+$12.92

Record

50%

4114-4061 (8175)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$259.38

Value

$213.93

PnL

-$45.45

Record

37%

513-891 (1404)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$214.66

Value

$199.99

PnL

-$14.67

Record

52%

1456-1332 (2788)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$180.27

Value

$181.02

PnL

+$0.76

Record

53%

563-497 (1060)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$188.46

Value

$186.16

PnL

-$2.31

Record

42%

474-649 (1123)

Both legs:

Down$98.0552.7¢+$88.1

Up$90.4156.2¢-$90.41

OhioAICTR

Invested

$197.18

Value

—

PnL

-$197.18

Record

49%

459-482 (941)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$160.14

Value

$162.93

PnL

+$2.79

Record

66%

2369-1200 (3569)

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$88.18

Value

$148.87

PnL

+$60.69

Record

48%

383-420 (803)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$301.87

Value

—

PnL

-$301.87

Record

43%

732-958 (1690)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$59.56

Value

$116.36

PnL

+$56.8

Record

53%

4267-3715 (7982)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$112.92

Value

$114.09

PnL

+$1.17

Record

44%

511-652 (1163)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$126

Value

$112.37

PnL

-$13.63

Record

55%

1432-1173 (2605)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 55 top traders (38%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0bbff762...75a0b7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794520200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Down — $3.8K

+$76.31

Bonereaper

Down — $1.3K

+$80.47

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$1.65

ByteBadger92

Down — $500

+$0

QuantumPebble673

Down — $500

+$0

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down — $433.52

+$1.33

stepahead

Down — $350.67

+$51.36

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$115.34

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