Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Up 57%
4 arb excluded
$28.2K
$-4.1K
Smart Money Signal
34 of 60 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $7.3K | -$21.74 | 56% 177-140 (317) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.3K | +$5.85 | 33% 31-62 (93) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.4K | +$14.97 | 45% 470-569 (1039) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.7K | $3.4K | +$1.6K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.6K | |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 72.5¢ | $2.1K | $2.3K | +$257.33 | 60% 686-457 (1143) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 29.3¢ | $640 | $2.2K | +$1.5K | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 37.3¢ | $919.79 | $1.3K | +$416.74 | 42% 474-649 (1123) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 53.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$113 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 60.1¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $877.03 | +$3.04 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 73.7¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 50% 4114-4061 (8175) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 72.2¢ | $545.29 | — | -$545.29 | 48% 875-935 (1810) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 58.6¢ | $610.9 | $583.22 | -$27.68 | 20% 254-1040 (1294) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 55.1¢ | $484.65 | — | -$484.65 | 44% 511-652 (1163) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 74.3¢ | $615.09 | — | -$615.09 | 48% 875-948 (1823) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 58.3¢ | $441.66 | $494.6 | +$52.94 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.1¢ | $153.96 | $494.6 | +$340.64 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.3¢ | $287.7 | — | -$287.7 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 67.3¢ | $303.03 | — | -$300.92 | 56% 592-472 (1064) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 43.2¢ | $225.27 | $305.48 | +$82.31 | 53% 4267-3715 (7982) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 74¢ | $316.19 | — | -$316.19 | 37% 513-891 (1404) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 70.7¢ | $327.53 | $273.67 | -$53.86 | 50% 504-506 (1010) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 66.3¢ | $281.58 | $274.01 | -$5.32 | 50% 541-539 (1080) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 42.7¢ | $340.72 | — | -$340.72 | 46% 655-779 (1434) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Downavg 63.5¢ | $308.08 | — | -$308.08 | 53% 563-497 (1060) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $231.19 | $235.91 | +$4.72 | 98% 2405-48 (2453) |
Invested
$8,793
Value
$7.3K
PnL
-$21.74
Record
56%
177-140 (317)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$5.85
Record
33%
31-62 (93)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$14.97
Record
45%
470-569 (1039)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,082.95
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$257.33
Record
60%
686-457 (1143)
Invested
$640
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
Invested
$919.79
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$416.74
Record
42%
474-649 (1123)
Invested
$1,445.93
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$113
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$1,008.54
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
Invested
$950
Value
$877.03
PnL
+$3.04
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Invested
$1,077.75
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
50%
4114-4061 (8175)
Invested
$545.29
Value
—
PnL
-$545.29
Record
48%
875-935 (1810)
NIULAI4Invested
$610.9
Value
$583.22
PnL
-$27.68
Record
20%
254-1040 (1294)
Invested
$484.65
Value
—
PnL
-$484.65
Record
44%
511-652 (1163)
Invested
$615.09
Value
—
PnL
-$615.09
Record
48%
875-948 (1823)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$441.66
Value
$494.6
PnL
+$52.94
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Both legs:
Invested
$303.03
Value
—
PnL
-$300.92
Record
56%
592-472 (1064)
FairValueMachineInvested
$225.27
Value
$305.48
PnL
+$82.31
Record
53%
4267-3715 (7982)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$316.19
Value
—
PnL
-$316.19
Record
37%
513-891 (1404)
Invested
$327.53
Value
$273.67
PnL
-$53.86
Record
50%
504-506 (1010)
Invested
$281.58
Value
$274.01
PnL
-$5.32
Record
50%
541-539 (1080)
Invested
$340.72
Value
—
PnL
-$340.72
Record
46%
655-779 (1434)
Invested
$308.08
Value
—
PnL
-$308.08
Record
53%
563-497 (1060)
Invested
$231.19
Value
$235.91
PnL
+$4.72
Record
98%
2405-48 (2453)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.3K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.3K
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Up — $2.3K
uninformedfloww
Up — $2.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.3K
blue.birds
Up — $1.3K
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $877.03
bosona
CTRDown — $0