Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 66%

20 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.2K

Combined PnL

$404.06

Smart Money Signal

25 of 40 top traders (63%)20 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up25 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,614

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Down15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,066

Combined PnL-$678.29

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.5K	$7.6K	+$9.25	56% 177-140 (317)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.9K	—	$-4.0K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.8K	$7.6K	+$4.0K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	+$51.31	33% 31-62 (93)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.4K	$4.7K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.3K	—	$-2.4K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	+$113.46	45% 470-569 (1039)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	$3.6K	+$1.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.8K
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 97.1¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$59.8	48% 1242-1341 (2583)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$925.92	-$2.69	51% 2266-2202 (4468)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$462.96	$925.92	+$464.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$442.5	—	-$467.1
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$476.49	$468.1	-$8.39	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.9¢	$327.2	$468.1	+$140.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.6¢	$149.29	—	-$149.29
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 89.8¢	$449.05	$409.46	-$39.59	46% 655-779 (1434)
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.4¢	$81.5	—	-$81.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.8¢	$367.55	$409.46	+$41.91
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 72¢	$503.1	$508.61	+$5.5	55% 3964-3302 (7266)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72¢	$366.13	$508.61	+$142.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.5¢	$136.98	—	-$136.98
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 68.7¢	$521.38	$434.8	-$5.11	60% 686-457 (1143)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$416.84	$473.47	+$56.63	52% 4164-3913 (8077)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.5¢	$300.77	$473.47	+$172.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 30¢	$116.07	—	-$116.07
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 92.3¢	$382.18	$397.64	+$15.46	50% 541-539 (1080)
└ Up leg	Upavg 92.3¢	$367.03	$397.64	+$30.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 4.7¢	$15.16	—	-$15.16
BO bosona	Upavg 65.7¢	$459.99	$699.99	+$240	50% 4114-4061 (8175)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 27.5¢	$207.32	$140.02	-$67.3	42% 474-649 (1123)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.5¢	$121.71	—	-$121.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.1¢	$85.61	$140.02	+$54.41
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 60.9¢	$237.45	$310.5	+$73.05	59% 643-441 (1084)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.9¢	$189.1	$310.5	+$121.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.8¢	$48.35	—	-$48.35
AL almach	Upavg 60.2¢	$305.04	$507.06	+$202.02	48% 875-935 (1810)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$228.12	$271.65	+$43.53	37% 513-891 (1404)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.9¢	$187.22	$271.65	+$84.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.8¢	$40.9	—	-$40.9
MO mo-money	Upavg 75.9¢	$295.63	$389.47	+$93.85	48% 875-948 (1823)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 66.6¢	$212.87	$224.73	+$11.86	52% 1456-1332 (2788)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.6¢	$149.64	$224.73	+$75.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.6¢	$63.23	—	-$63.23
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$149.24	$153.3	+$4.06	46% 985-1137 (2122)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.7¢	$56.57	—	-$56.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.5¢	$92.67	$153.3	+$60.63
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR<$100	Downavg 25¢	$90.48	—	-$90.48	48% 487-520 (1007)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Downavg 5.1¢	$18.98	—	-$18.98	51% 524-507 (1031)
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 40.9¢	$102.33	—	-$102.33	52% 666-603 (1269)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 68.3¢	$123.42	$134.7	+$11.28	49% 3525-3636 (7161)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.3¢	$92.06	$134.7	+$42.64
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.4¢	$31.37	—	-$31.37

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,500

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$9.25

Record

56%

177-140 (317)

Both legs:

Down$3,890.2950¢$-4.0K

Up$3,784.8650¢+$4.0K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$51.31

Record

33%

31-62 (93)

Both legs:

Up$2,360.0150¢+$2.5K

Down$2,290.7550¢$-2.4K

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$113.46

Record

45%

470-569 (1039)

Both legs:

Up$1,798.650¢+$1.9K

Down$1,694.650¢$-1.8K

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$2,021.43

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$59.8

Record

48%

1242-1341 (2583)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$925.92

PnL

-$2.69

Record

51%

2266-2202 (4468)

Both legs:

Up$462.9650¢+$464.41

Down$442.550¢-$467.1

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢-$250

Up$25050¢+$250

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$476.49

Value

$468.1

PnL

-$8.39

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

Both legs:

Up$327.269.9¢+$140.9

Down$149.2932.6¢-$149.29

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$449.05

Value

$409.46

PnL

-$39.59

Record

46%

655-779 (1434)

Both legs:

Down$81.516.4¢-$81.5

Up$367.5589.8¢+$41.91

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$503.1

Value

$508.61

PnL

+$5.5

Record

55%

3964-3302 (7266)

Both legs:

Up$366.1372¢+$142.48

Down$136.9836.5¢-$136.98

Bonereaper

Invested

$521.38

Value

$434.8

PnL

-$5.11

Record

60%

686-457 (1143)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$416.84

Value

$473.47

PnL

+$56.63

Record

52%

4164-3913 (8077)

Both legs:

Up$300.7763.5¢+$172.7

Down$116.0730¢-$116.07

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$382.18

Value

$397.64

PnL

+$15.46

Record

50%

541-539 (1080)

Both legs:

Up$367.0392.3¢+$30.61

Down$15.164.7¢-$15.16

bosona

Invested

$459.99

Value

$699.99

PnL

+$240

Record

50%

4114-4061 (8175)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$207.32

Value

$140.02

PnL

-$67.3

Record

42%

474-649 (1123)

Both legs:

Down$121.7127.5¢-$121.71

Up$85.6161.1¢+$54.41

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$237.45

Value

$310.5

PnL

+$73.05

Record

59%

643-441 (1084)

Both legs:

Up$189.160.9¢+$121.41

Down$48.3523.8¢-$48.35

almach

Invested

$305.04

Value

$507.06

PnL

+$202.02

Record

48%

875-935 (1810)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$228.12

Value

$271.65

PnL

+$43.53

Record

37%

513-891 (1404)

Both legs:

Up$187.2268.9¢+$84.43

Down$40.929.8¢-$40.9

mo-money

Invested

$295.63

Value

$389.47

PnL

+$93.85

Record

48%

875-948 (1823)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$212.87

Value

$224.73

PnL

+$11.86

Record

52%

1456-1332 (2788)

Both legs:

Up$149.6466.6¢+$75.08

Down$63.2342.6¢-$63.23

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$149.24

Value

$153.3

PnL

+$4.06

Record

46%

985-1137 (2122)

Both legs:

Down$56.5728.7¢-$56.57

Up$92.6760.5¢+$60.63

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$90.48

Value

—

PnL

-$90.48

Record

48%

487-520 (1007)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.98

Value

—

PnL

-$18.98

Record

51%

524-507 (1031)

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$102.33

Value

—

PnL

-$102.33

Record

52%

666-603 (1269)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$123.42

Value

$134.7

PnL

+$11.28

Record

49%

3525-3636 (7161)

Both legs:

Up$92.0668.3¢+$42.64

Down$31.3736.4¢-$31.37

Smart Money Signal

25 of 40 top traders (63%)20 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x288e2f42...430b23

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794519600

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $2.1K

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

QuantumPebble673

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded