Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Up 59%
9 arb excluded
$17.7K
$-3.6K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 55 top traders (58%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.0K | +$142.88 | 56% 177-140 (317) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.5K | +$541.86 | 45% 470-569 (1039) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 46.9¢ | $824.65 | — | -$824.65 | 46% 655-779 (1434) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $945 | +$56.03 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 73.1¢ | $730.57 | — | -$730.57 | 55% 3964-3302 (7266) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 70.2¢ | $667.32 | — | -$667.32 | 52% 4164-3913 (8077) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 42.8¢ | $510.57 | $621.63 | +$111.06 | 42% 474-649 (1123) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33¢ | $205.41 | $621.63 | +$416.22 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.8¢ | $305.16 | — | -$305.16 | |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 79.8¢ | $640 | — | -$610.2 | 60% 686-457 (1143) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 36¢ | $263.94 | $377.49 | +$113.55 | 44% 511-652 (1163) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Downavg 83.8¢ | $376.55 | — | -$376.55 | 50% 541-539 (1080) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $280.24 | $356.58 | +$76.34 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.7¢ | $95.21 | $356.58 | +$261.38 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.3¢ | $185.04 | — | -$185.04 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 84.9¢ | $359.01 | $381.04 | +$22.03 | 48% 487-520 (1007) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 76.9¢ | $405.82 | $353.53 | -$52.29 | 20% 254-1040 (1294) |
BO bosona | Upavg 78.4¢ | $469.68 | $300.55 | -$169.13 | 50% 4114-4061 (8175) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $308.16 | $278.98 | -$29.18 | 37% 513-891 (1404) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.4¢ | $112.74 | $278.98 | +$166.23 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.9¢ | $195.42 | — | -$195.42 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 86.1¢ | $223.46 | — | -$223.46 | 56% 592-472 (1064) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 50¢ | $175.16 | $350.32 | +$175.16 | 48% 1242-1341 (2583) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $207.13 | $213.27 | +$6.15 | 44% 447-568 (1015) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 75¢ | $159.92 | $213.27 | +$53.35 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 12.5¢ | $47.2 | — | -$47.2 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 38.6¢ | $150.36 | $258.06 | +$107.71 | 52% 1456-1332 (2788) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR | Downavg 61.8¢ | $120.44 | — | -$89.24 | 46% 1350-1577 (2927) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 39.2¢ | $118.17 | $202.96 | +$84.8 | 53% 4267-3715 (7982) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 48.5¢ | $162.15 | $183.17 | +$21.02 | 43% 732-958 (1690) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 58.2¢ | $124.13 | $157.12 | +$32.99 | 51% 513-499 (1012) |
Invested
$8,558
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$142.88
Record
56%
177-140 (317)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$541.86
Record
45%
470-569 (1039)
Invested
$824.65
Value
—
PnL
-$824.65
Record
46%
655-779 (1434)
Invested
$950
Value
$945
PnL
+$56.03
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Invested
$730.57
Value
—
PnL
-$730.57
Record
55%
3964-3302 (7266)
Invested
$667.32
Value
—
PnL
-$667.32
Record
52%
4164-3913 (8077)
Invested
$510.57
Value
$621.63
PnL
+$111.06
Record
42%
474-649 (1123)
Both legs:
Invested
$640
Value
—
PnL
-$610.2
Record
60%
686-457 (1143)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$263.94
Value
$377.49
PnL
+$113.55
Record
44%
511-652 (1163)
Invested
$376.55
Value
—
PnL
-$376.55
Record
50%
541-539 (1080)
Invested
$280.24
Value
$356.58
PnL
+$76.34
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Both legs:
Invested
$359.01
Value
$381.04
PnL
+$22.03
Record
48%
487-520 (1007)
NIULAI4Invested
$405.82
Value
$353.53
PnL
-$52.29
Record
20%
254-1040 (1294)
Invested
$469.68
Value
$300.55
PnL
-$169.13
Record
50%
4114-4061 (8175)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$308.16
Value
$278.98
PnL
-$29.18
Record
37%
513-891 (1404)
Both legs:
Invested
$223.46
Value
—
PnL
-$223.46
Record
56%
592-472 (1064)
Invested
$175.16
Value
$350.32
PnL
+$175.16
Record
48%
1242-1341 (2583)
Invested
$207.13
Value
$213.27
PnL
+$6.15
Record
44%
447-568 (1015)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$150.36
Value
$258.06
PnL
+$107.71
Record
52%
1456-1332 (2788)
Invested
$120.44
Value
—
PnL
-$89.24
Record
46%
1350-1577 (2927)
FairValueMachineInvested
$118.17
Value
$202.96
PnL
+$84.8
Record
53%
4267-3715 (7982)
machinelearnedInvested
$162.15
Value
$183.17
PnL
+$21.02
Record
43%
732-958 (1690)
Invested
$124.13
Value
$157.12
PnL
+$32.99
Record
51%
513-499 (1012)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.0K
machine-earning
Up — $3.5K
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $945
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
Up — $500