Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
Resolved Up. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
57
Down 23%
2 arb excluded
$9.8K
$-17.5K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 57 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.8K | 57% 171-131 (302) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 36% 27-47 (74) |
TH THG. | Upavg 98.8¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$43.69 | 99% 546-3 (549) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 464-556 (1020) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 69.1¢ | $507.99 | $572.43 | +$64.44 | 55% 3949-3285 (7234) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.3¢ | $554.3 | $489.99 | +$0.21 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 73.3¢ | $553.44 | $488.25 | -$65.19 | 60% 670-448 (1118) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 72.2¢ | $472.75 | $449.25 | -$23.51 | 46% 644-760 (1404) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 75.2¢ | $473.46 | $437.98 | +$24.32 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
BO bosona | Upavg 84.1¢ | $512.19 | $353.31 | -$158.88 | 50% 4095-4042 (8137) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Downavg 45.4¢ | $363.7 | — | -$363.7 | 50% 466-464 (930) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 72.6¢ | $393.94 | $302.75 | -$63.59 | 42% 462-637 (1099) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 77.9¢ | $298.85 | $219.89 | -$78.96 | 44% 497-642 (1139) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 91.2¢ | $240.61 | $212.33 | -$28.28 | 50% 509-503 (1012) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 82.5¢ | $165.47 | $184.21 | +$18.75 | 50% 528-528 (1056) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 74.7¢ | $133.54 | $168.66 | +$38.09 | 55% 1381-1151 (2532) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR | Downavg 37.7¢ | $109.28 | — | -$109.28 | 44% 440-556 (996) |
RA rabadabadoo | Upavg 71.7¢ | $146 | $138.93 | -$6.68 | 46% 965-1112 (2077) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 70.8¢ | $122.24 | $130 | +$16.26 | 49% 445-472 (917) |
AL almach | Upavg 85.9¢ | $165.63 | $128.51 | -$30.82 | 48% 859-914 (1773) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 88.9¢ | $104.08 | $117.12 | +$13.04 | 51% 503-487 (990) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 83.8¢ | $136.65 | $116.02 | -$20.63 | 48% 859-929 (1788) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 86.4¢ | $103.7 | $109.67 | +$5.97 | 58% 608-441 (1049) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 82.4¢ | $97.14 | $106.31 | +$9.18 | 53% 4251-3707 (7958) |
Invested
$8,932
Value
—
PnL
$-8.8K
Record
57%
171-131 (302)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
36%
27-47 (74)
Invested
$3,456.31
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$43.69
Record
99%
546-3 (549)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
464-556 (1020)
Invested
$507.99
Value
$572.43
PnL
+$64.44
Record
55%
3949-3285 (7234)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$554.3
Value
$489.99
PnL
+$0.21
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Invested
$553.44
Value
$488.25
PnL
-$65.19
Record
60%
670-448 (1118)
Invested
$472.75
Value
$449.25
PnL
-$23.51
Record
46%
644-760 (1404)
Invested
$473.46
Value
$437.98
PnL
+$24.32
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
Invested
$512.19
Value
$353.31
PnL
-$158.88
Record
50%
4095-4042 (8137)
Invested
$363.7
Value
—
PnL
-$363.7
Record
50%
466-464 (930)
Invested
$393.94
Value
$302.75
PnL
-$63.59
Record
42%
462-637 (1099)
Invested
$298.85
Value
$219.89
PnL
-$78.96
Record
44%
497-642 (1139)
Invested
$240.61
Value
$212.33
PnL
-$28.28
Record
50%
509-503 (1012)
Invested
$165.47
Value
$184.21
PnL
+$18.75
Record
50%
528-528 (1056)
Invested
$133.54
Value
$168.66
PnL
+$38.09
Record
55%
1381-1151 (2532)
Invested
$109.28
Value
—
PnL
-$109.28
Record
44%
440-556 (996)
Invested
$146
Value
$138.93
PnL
-$6.68
Record
46%
965-1112 (2077)
OhioAIInvested
$122.24
Value
$130
PnL
+$16.26
Record
49%
445-472 (917)
Invested
$165.63
Value
$128.51
PnL
-$30.82
Record
48%
859-914 (1773)
Invested
$104.08
Value
$117.12
PnL
+$13.04
Record
51%
503-487 (990)
Invested
$136.65
Value
$116.02
PnL
-$20.63
Record
48%
859-929 (1788)
Invested
$103.7
Value
$109.67
PnL
+$5.97
Record
58%
608-441 (1049)
FairValueMachineInvested
$97.14
Value
$106.31
PnL
+$9.18
Record
53%
4251-3707 (7958)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $572.43
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
Up — $489.99
Bonereaper
Up — $488.25
CrouchPredictions
Up — $449.25
blue.birds
Up — $437.98