Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
55
Up 33%
2 arb excluded
$10.9K
$-16.0K
Smart Money Signal
18 of 55 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.9K | 57% 171-131 (302) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.3K | 36% 27-47 (74) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 546-3 (549) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-2.7K | 45% 464-556 (1020) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 51% 2225-2153 (4378) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 92.5¢ | $836 | $800 | -$18.14 | 51% 1409-1375 (2784) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 67.9¢ | $646.29 | $634.46 | -$11.83 | 60% 670-448 (1118) |
AL almach | Downavg 71.9¢ | $487.49 | $677.77 | +$190.28 | 48% 859-914 (1773) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 48.3¢ | $256.55 | $522.62 | +$266.07 | 43% 722-943 (1665) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BO bosona | Downavg 64¢ | $453.08 | $562.94 | +$109.86 | 50% 4095-4042 (8137) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $598.12 | $490.99 | -$1.18 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 66.6¢ | $349.61 | $399.45 | +$49.84 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 26.1¢ | $346.83 | — | -$346.83 | 46% 644-760 (1404) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 83.1¢ | $360.63 | $343.5 | -$16.88 | 50% 528-528 (1056) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 57.1¢ | $328.45 | $335 | +$6.55 | 55% 3949-3285 (7234) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 85.5¢ | $354.94 | $263.99 | -$90.95 | 55% 577-463 (1040) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 69.2¢ | $191.33 | $276.41 | +$85.07 | 48% 859-929 (1788) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 88.3¢ | $189.9 | $173.74 | -$16.16 | 42% 462-637 (1099) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $155.23 | $160.28 | +$5.05 | 49% 487-498 (985) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 73.5¢ | $126.1 | $155.3 | +$29.2 | 53% 547-489 (1036) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 51.5¢ | $128.79 | $250 | +$121.21 | 53% 656-587 (1243) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Downavg 81.5¢ | $148.82 | $120 | -$28.82 | 37% 506-874 (1380) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81.5¢ | $97.8 | $120 | +$22.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.9¢ | $51.02 | — | -$51.02 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $119.26 | $231.37 | +$112.1 | 48% 1221-1313 (2534) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 87.6¢ | $129.99 | $110 | -$19.99 | 44% 497-642 (1139) |
Invested
$8,822
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
57%
171-131 (302)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.3K
Record
36%
27-47 (74)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
546-3 (549)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-2.7K
Record
45%
464-556 (1020)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
51%
2225-2153 (4378)
Invested
$836
Value
$800
PnL
-$18.14
Record
51%
1409-1375 (2784)
Invested
$646.29
Value
$634.46
PnL
-$11.83
Record
60%
670-448 (1118)
Invested
$487.49
Value
$677.77
PnL
+$190.28
Record
48%
859-914 (1773)
machinelearnedInvested
$256.55
Value
$522.62
PnL
+$266.07
Record
43%
722-943 (1665)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$453.08
Value
$562.94
PnL
+$109.86
Record
50%
4095-4042 (8137)
Invested
$598.12
Value
$490.99
PnL
-$1.18
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Invested
$349.61
Value
$399.45
PnL
+$49.84
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
Invested
$346.83
Value
—
PnL
-$346.83
Record
46%
644-760 (1404)
Invested
$360.63
Value
$343.5
PnL
-$16.88
Record
50%
528-528 (1056)
Invested
$328.45
Value
$335
PnL
+$6.55
Record
55%
3949-3285 (7234)
Invested
$354.94
Value
$263.99
PnL
-$90.95
Record
55%
577-463 (1040)
Invested
$191.33
Value
$276.41
PnL
+$85.07
Record
48%
859-929 (1788)
Invested
$189.9
Value
$173.74
PnL
-$16.16
Record
42%
462-637 (1099)
Invested
$155.23
Value
$160.28
PnL
+$5.05
Record
49%
487-498 (985)
Invested
$126.1
Value
$155.3
PnL
+$29.2
Record
53%
547-489 (1036)
Invested
$128.79
Value
$250
PnL
+$121.21
Record
53%
656-587 (1243)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$148.82
Value
$120
PnL
-$28.82
Record
37%
506-874 (1380)
Both legs:
Invested
$119.26
Value
$231.37
PnL
+$112.1
Record
48%
1221-1313 (2534)
Invested
$129.99
Value
$110
PnL
-$19.99
Record
44%
497-642 (1139)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $800
Bonereaper
Down — $634.46
almach
Down — $677.77
machinelearned
Down — $522.62
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0