Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 58%
2 arb excluded
$9.2K
$-10.4K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 55 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 36% 27-47 (74) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 464-556 (1020) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 92.3¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$71.11 | 60% 670-448 (1118) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$40.24 | 48% 1221-1313 (2534) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$11.83 | 74% 1097-389 (1486) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 51% 2225-2153 (4378) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $356.42 | $361.99 | +$5.57 | 98% 2353-45 (2398) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 91.1¢ | $261.69 | $276.17 | +$14.48 | 50% 528-528 (1056) |
BO bosona | Downavg 92.9¢ | $249.94 | $259.32 | +$9.38 | 50% 4095-4042 (8137) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $208.89 | $211 | +$2.11 | 99% 546-3 (549) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 79.7¢ | $234.28 | $198.79 | -$35.49 | 42% 462-637 (1099) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 76¢ | $188.13 | $179.89 | +$12.34 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 99¢ | $131.33 | $131.3 | -$0.03 | 33% 675-1344 (2019) |
XJ xjansfsaCTR | Upavg 51¢ | $124.9 | — | -$124.9 | 43% 25-33 (58) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 92.4¢ | $120.8 | $121.33 | +$0.53 | 59% 627-433 (1060) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 73.8¢ | $93.01 | $122.44 | +$29.43 | 52% 600-552 (1152) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 73.3¢ | $116.04 | $109.24 | -$6.8 | 55% 3949-3285 (7234) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 49.8¢ | $118.9 | — | -$118.9 | 50% 466-464 (930) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 74.2¢ | $105.82 | $81.68 | -$24.14 | 37% 506-874 (1380) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 79.3¢ | $63.62 | $80.27 | +$16.65 | 66% 2317-1186 (3503) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Upavg 39.2¢ | $67.17 | — | -$67.17 | 51% 503-487 (990) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $69.06 | $84.5 | +$15.44 | 48% 476-511 (987) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58¢ | $49.01 | $84.5 | +$35.49 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.7¢ | $20.05 | — | -$20.05 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $66.06 | $75 | +$8.94 | 47% 1374-1576 (2950) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
36%
27-47 (74)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
464-556 (1020)
Invested
$2,366.94
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$71.11
Record
60%
670-448 (1118)
Invested
$1,999.45
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$40.24
Record
48%
1221-1313 (2534)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,726.42
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$11.83
Record
74%
1097-389 (1486)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
51%
2225-2153 (4378)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$356.42
Value
$361.99
PnL
+$5.57
Record
98%
2353-45 (2398)
Invested
$261.69
Value
$276.17
PnL
+$14.48
Record
50%
528-528 (1056)
Invested
$249.94
Value
$259.32
PnL
+$9.38
Record
50%
4095-4042 (8137)
Invested
$208.89
Value
$211
PnL
+$2.11
Record
99%
546-3 (549)
Invested
$234.28
Value
$198.79
PnL
-$35.49
Record
42%
462-637 (1099)
Invested
$188.13
Value
$179.89
PnL
+$12.34
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
pspspsps5Invested
$131.33
Value
$131.3
PnL
-$0.03
Record
33%
675-1344 (2019)
Invested
$124.9
Value
—
PnL
-$124.9
Record
43%
25-33 (58)
Invested
$120.8
Value
$121.33
PnL
+$0.53
Record
59%
627-433 (1060)
Invested
$93.01
Value
$122.44
PnL
+$29.43
Record
52%
600-552 (1152)
Invested
$116.04
Value
$109.24
PnL
-$6.8
Record
55%
3949-3285 (7234)
Invested
$118.9
Value
—
PnL
-$118.9
Record
50%
466-464 (930)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$105.82
Value
$81.68
PnL
-$24.14
Record
37%
506-874 (1380)
Invested
$63.62
Value
$80.27
PnL
+$16.65
Record
66%
2317-1186 (3503)
Invested
$67.17
Value
—
PnL
-$67.17
Record
51%
503-487 (990)
Invested
$69.06
Value
$84.5
PnL
+$15.44
Record
48%
476-511 (987)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.06
Value
$75
PnL
+$8.94
Record
47%
1374-1576 (2950)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $2.4K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.0K
BoneOhio
Down — $1.7K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $361.99
EZTRADENL2
Down — $276.17