Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.8K

Combined PnL

$-8.6K

Smart Money Signal

35 of 51 top traders (69%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares11,273

Combined PnL$-9.5K

Up35 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares14,656

Combined PnL+$906.43

Down — 31%Up — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.8K	36% 27-47 (74)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.7K	45% 464-556 (1020)
BO borderlocket	Upavg 79.9¢	$2.6K	$3.3K	+$659.13	29% 55-137 (192)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$225.36	48% 1221-1313 (2534)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 89.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$93.11	60% 670-448 (1118)
ST stepahead	Upavg 77.7¢	$924.14	$982.02	+$57.87	55% 3949-3285 (7234)
Atomforge	Upavg 77.5¢	$1.2K	$884.53	+$51.25	23% 223-759 (982)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 87.7¢	$742.7	$800.98	+$58.28	44% 440-556 (996)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$681.96	$679.4	-$2.56	52% 4124-3876 (8000)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.4¢	$512.33	$679.4	+$167.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.9¢	$169.63	—	-$169.63
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Downavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 52.1¢	$539.51	$496.56	-$3.52	56% 2419-1897 (4316)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 88.7¢	$527.72	$440.26	-$87.46	46% 644-760 (1404)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 68.3¢	$391.08	$410.22	+$19.14	42% 462-637 (1099)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.3¢	$280.23	$410.22	+$129.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.2¢	$110.85	—	-$110.85
machinelearned	Upavg 77¢	$417.26	$421.16	+$3.9	43% 722-943 (1665)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 84.7¢	$372.14	$381.24	+$9.1	50% 528-528 (1056)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 79.8¢	$366.78	$332.08	-$34.7	37% 506-874 (1380)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 77.8¢	$311.27	$311.34	+$0.07	50% 4095-4042 (8137)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.8¢	$242.35	$311.34	+$68.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.5¢	$68.92	—	-$68.92
FairValueMachine	Upavg 72.1¢	$251.73	$296.04	+$44.3	53% 4251-3707 (7958)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 83.4¢	$305.05	$288.09	+$2.23	53% 1432-1294 (2726)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 62.7¢	$247.09	$266.62	+$19.54	44% 497-642 (1139)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 82.2¢	$357.59	$256.49	+$12.88	22% 74-262 (336)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 85.3¢	$238.48	$272.35	+$33.87	50% 509-503 (1012)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 75.7¢	$194.95	$245.53	+$54.57	55% 577-463 (1040)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 74.8¢	$185.18	$195.99	+$10.81	59% 627-433 (1060)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.8¢	$146.67	$195.99	+$49.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.8¢	$38.51	—	-$38.51
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 72.4¢	$176.7	$172.98	-$3.72	55% 1381-1151 (2532)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.4¢	$125.25	$172.98	+$47.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.2¢	$51.45	—	-$51.45

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

36%

27-47 (74)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

45%

464-556 (1020)

borderlocket

Invested

$2,624.1

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$659.13

Record

29%

55-137 (192)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$2,225.36

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$225.36

Record

48%

1221-1313 (2534)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,699.47

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$93.11

Record

60%

670-448 (1118)

stepahead

Invested

$924.14

Value

$982.02

PnL

+$57.87

Record

55%

3949-3285 (7234)

Atomforge

Invested

$1,182.3

Value

$884.53

PnL

+$51.25

Record

23%

223-759 (982)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$742.7

Value

$800.98

PnL

+$58.28

Record

44%

440-556 (996)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$681.96

Value

$679.4

PnL

-$2.56

Record

52%

4124-3876 (8000)

Both legs:

Up$512.3375.4¢+$167.06

Down$169.6320.9¢-$169.63

QuantumPebble673CTR

Down

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

ByteBadger92

Invested

$539.51

Value

$496.56

PnL

-$3.52

Record

56%

2419-1897 (4316)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$527.72

Value

$440.26

PnL

-$87.46

Record

46%

644-760 (1404)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$391.08

Value

$410.22

PnL

+$19.14

Record

42%

462-637 (1099)

Both legs:

Up$280.2368.3¢+$129.99

Down$110.8522.2¢-$110.85

machinelearned

Invested

$417.26

Value

$421.16

PnL

+$3.9

Record

43%

722-943 (1665)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$372.14

Value

$381.24

PnL

+$9.1

Record

50%

528-528 (1056)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$366.78

Value

$332.08

PnL

-$34.7

Record

37%

506-874 (1380)

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$311.27

Value

$311.34

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

4095-4042 (8137)

Both legs:

Up$242.3577.8¢+$68.99

Down$68.9222.5¢-$68.92

FairValueMachine

Invested

$251.73

Value

$296.04

PnL

+$44.3

Record

53%

4251-3707 (7958)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$305.05

Value

$288.09

PnL

+$2.23

Record

53%

1432-1294 (2726)

GoodFallen

Invested

$247.09

Value

$266.62

PnL

+$19.54

Record

44%

497-642 (1139)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$357.59

Value

$256.49

PnL

+$12.88

Record

22%

74-262 (336)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$238.48

Value

$272.35

PnL

+$33.87

Record

50%

509-503 (1012)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$194.95

Value

$245.53

PnL

+$54.57

Record

55%

577-463 (1040)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$185.18

Value

$195.99

PnL

+$10.81

Record

59%

627-433 (1060)

Both legs:

Up$146.6774.8¢+$49.32

Down$38.5116.8¢-$38.51

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$176.7

Value

$172.98

PnL

-$3.72

Record

55%

1381-1151 (2532)

Both legs:

Up$125.2572.4¢+$47.73

Down$51.4523.2¢-$51.45

Smart Money Signal

35 of 51 top traders (69%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf22d999a...80eaad

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794512700

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $0

machine-earning

Down — $0

borderlocket

Up — $3.3K

+$659.13

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $2.0K

-$225.36

Bonereaper

Up — $1.8K

+$93.11

stepahead

Up — $982.02

+$57.87

Atomforge

Up — $884.53

+$51.25

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Up — $800.98

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

QuantumPebble673

Down — $0