Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.6K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Signal

34 of 56 top traders (61%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up34 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares9,306

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Down22 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,518

Combined PnL$-4.8K

Up — 61%Down — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0	36% 27-47 (74)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$0	45% 464-556 (1020)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.0K	$4.0K	+$2.0K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.0K	—	$-2.0K
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$192.33	48% 1221-1313 (2534)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 55.7¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$116.29	60% 670-448 (1118)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 44.6¢	$904.8	—	-$904.8	42% 462-637 (1099)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 45.5¢	$707.11	$815.36	+$108.25	52% 4124-3876 (8000)
ST stepaheadCTR	Downavg 67.3¢	$570.79	—	-$570.79	55% 3949-3285 (7234)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Upavg 68.1¢	$486.3	$580.06	+$93.76	50% 495-492 (987)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 56.4¢	$475.12	$507.83	+$33.53	53% 547-489 (1036)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.8¢	$537.95	—	-$494.39	56% 2419-1897 (4316)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 12.6¢	$55.7	$441.41	+$385.71	37% 679-1149 (1828)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 42.9¢	$576.29	—	-$576.29	46% 644-760 (1404)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 47.3¢	$412.55	—	-$386.45	44% 497-642 (1139)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 78.1¢	$348.16	$345.25	-$2.77	50% 528-528 (1056)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 72.4¢	$265.12	$276.44	+$11.32	55% 577-463 (1040)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR	Downavg 49.3¢	$248.11	—	-$248.11	49% 487-498 (985)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 56.7¢	$215.86	$239	+$23.14	46% 965-1112 (2077)
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 48.4¢	$222.8	—	-$222.8	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 66.1¢	$199.56	$228.88	+$29.32	59% 627-433 (1060)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 65.6¢	$251.4	$356.63	+$118.39	60% 621-416 (1037)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Upavg 73.6¢	$228.24	$192.03	-$36.21	50% 499-498 (997)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.6¢	$141.25	$192.03	+$50.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.4¢	$86.99	—	-$86.99
FairValueMachine	Upavg 58.2¢	$198.65	$187.62	-$11.03	53% 4251-3707 (7958)
DE devonpollARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$180	$180	+$0	53% 314-280 (594)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$90	$180	+$90
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$90	—	-$90
BO bosona	Upavg 53.5¢	$390.95	$287.39	+$104.25	50% 4095-4042 (8137)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

27-47 (74)

Both legs:

Up$2,50050¢+$2.5K

Down$2,50050¢$-2.5K

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

464-556 (1020)

Both legs:

Up$2,00050¢+$2.0K

Down$2,00050¢$-2.0K

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$2,085.76

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$192.33

Record

48%

1221-1313 (2534)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,556.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$116.29

Record

60%

670-448 (1118)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$904.8

Value

—

PnL

-$904.8

Record

42%

462-637 (1099)

blue.birds

Invested

$707.11

Value

$815.36

PnL

+$108.25

Record

52%

4124-3876 (8000)

stepaheadCTR

Down

Invested

$570.79

Value

—

PnL

-$570.79

Record

55%

3949-3285 (7234)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Invested

$486.3

Value

$580.06

PnL

+$93.76

Record

50%

495-492 (987)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$475.12

Value

$507.83

PnL

+$33.53

Record

53%

547-489 (1036)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$537.95

Value

—

PnL

-$494.39

Record

56%

2419-1897 (4316)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$55.7

Value

$441.41

PnL

+$385.71

Record

37%

679-1149 (1828)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$576.29

Value

—

PnL

-$576.29

Record

46%

644-760 (1404)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$412.55

Value

—

PnL

-$386.45

Record

44%

497-642 (1139)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$348.16

Value

$345.25

PnL

-$2.77

Record

50%

528-528 (1056)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$265.12

Value

$276.44

PnL

+$11.32

Record

55%

577-463 (1040)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR

Down

Invested

$248.11

Value

—

PnL

-$248.11

Record

49%

487-498 (985)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$215.86

Value

$239

PnL

+$23.14

Record

46%

965-1112 (2077)

38791873984189CTR

Down

Invested

$222.8

Value

—

PnL

-$222.8

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$199.56

Value

$228.88

PnL

+$29.32

Record

59%

627-433 (1060)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$251.4

Value

$356.63

PnL

+$118.39

Record

60%

621-416 (1037)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Invested

$228.24

Value

$192.03

PnL

-$36.21

Record

50%

499-498 (997)

Both legs:

Up$141.2573.6¢+$50.77

Down$86.9944.4¢-$86.99

FairValueMachine

Invested

$198.65

Value

$187.62

PnL

-$11.03

Record

53%

4251-3707 (7958)

devonpollARB<$100

Down

Invested

$180

Value

$180

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

314-280 (594)

Both legs:

Up$9050¢+$90

Down$9050¢-$90

bosona

Invested

$390.95

Value

$287.39

PnL

+$104.25

Record

50%

4095-4042 (8137)

Smart Money Signal

34 of 56 top traders (61%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa858d10f...b38a13

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794512400

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0

machine-earning

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.9K

-$192.33

Bonereaper

Up — $1.7K

+$116.29

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Down — $0

-$904.8

blue.birds

Up — $815.36

+$108.25

stepahead

CTR

Down — $0

-$570.79

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Up — $580.06

+$93.76

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $507.83

QuantumPebble673

Arbitrage — excluded