Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
78
Down 61%
1 arb excluded
$26.0K
$-13.0K
Smart Money Signal
45 of 78 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borderlocket | Downavg 46.7¢ | $2.6K | $5.6K | +$3.0K | 29% 55-137 (192) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-5.0K | 36% 27-47 (74) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-4.0K | 45% 464-556 (1020) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 82.3¢ | $3.7K | $3.8K | +$86.39 | 60% 670-448 (1118) |
 AtomforgeCTR | Upavg 54.6¢ | $3.2K | — | $-3.2K | 23% 223-759 (982) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 53.7¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$81.13 | 46% 644-760 (1404) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 52.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$233.04 | 42% 462-637 (1099) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 49¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$101.27 | 52% 4124-3876 (8000) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 58.8¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 55% 3949-3285 (7234) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 68.4¢ | $957.44 | $911.82 | -$45.62 | 50% 528-528 (1056) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Upavg 49.3¢ | $824.98 | — | -$824.98 | 54% 238-205 (443) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 55.6¢ | $724.18 | $765.38 | +$41.2 | 55% 577-463 (1040) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 52.2¢ | $673.09 | $757.24 | +$84.15 | 44% 497-642 (1139) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 47¢ | $376.71 | $800.75 | +$424.04 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $477.81 | $651.55 | +$173.74 | 50% 495-492 (987) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 52.4¢ | $613.96 | $598.05 | -$15.92 | 53% 547-489 (1036) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Upavg 50.8¢ | $757.96 | — | -$757.96 | 51% 503-487 (990) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
SP spartacray | Downavg 56.5¢ | $595.24 | $523.88 | +$251.99 | 58% 608-441 (1049) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 51.9¢ | $665.88 | — | -$486.58 | 56% 2419-1897 (4316) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $277.15 | $429.82 | +$176.78 | 47% 1374-1576 (2950) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 63.1¢ | $393.2 | $402.85 | +$12.65 | 53% 4251-3707 (7958) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 46.4¢ | $284.09 | $405.02 | +$120.94 | 48% 1221-1313 (2534) |
BO bosona | Downavg 37.4¢ | $565.1 | $397.97 | +$112.94 | 50% 4095-4042 (8137) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 59¢ | $554.26 | $420.61 | +$175.87 | 59% 627-433 (1060) |
Invested
$2,593.73
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$3.0K
Record
29%
55-137 (192)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-5.0K
Record
36%
27-47 (74)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.0K
Record
45%
464-556 (1020)
Invested
$3,739.15
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$86.39
Record
60%
670-448 (1118)
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$3,179.18
Value
—
PnL
$-3.2K
Record
23%
223-759 (982)
Invested
$2,534.32
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$81.13
Record
46%
644-760 (1404)
Invested
$1,250.15
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$233.04
Record
42%
462-637 (1099)
Invested
$1,325.77
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$101.27
Record
52%
4124-3876 (8000)
Invested
$1,406.01
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
55%
3949-3285 (7234)
Invested
$957.44
Value
$911.82
PnL
-$45.62
Record
50%
528-528 (1056)
Invested
$824.98
Value
—
PnL
-$824.98
Record
54%
238-205 (443)
Invested
$724.18
Value
$765.38
PnL
+$41.2
Record
55%
577-463 (1040)
Invested
$673.09
Value
$757.24
PnL
+$84.15
Record
44%
497-642 (1139)
Invested
$376.71
Value
$800.75
PnL
+$424.04
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Invested
$477.81
Value
$651.55
PnL
+$173.74
Record
50%
495-492 (987)
Invested
$613.96
Value
$598.05
PnL
-$15.92
Record
53%
547-489 (1036)
Invested
$757.96
Value
—
PnL
-$757.96
Record
51%
503-487 (990)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$595.24
Value
$523.88
PnL
+$251.99
Record
58%
608-441 (1049)
Invested
$665.88
Value
—
PnL
-$486.58
Record
56%
2419-1897 (4316)
Invested
$277.15
Value
$429.82
PnL
+$176.78
Record
47%
1374-1576 (2950)
FairValueMachineInvested
$393.2
Value
$402.85
PnL
+$12.65
Record
53%
4251-3707 (7958)
Invested
$284.09
Value
$405.02
PnL
+$120.94
Record
48%
1221-1313 (2534)
Invested
$565.1
Value
$397.97
PnL
+$112.94
Record
50%
4095-4042 (8137)
Invested
$554.26
Value
$420.61
PnL
+$175.87
Record
59%
627-433 (1060)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
borderlocket
Down — $5.6K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $3.8K
Atomforge
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $2.5K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $1.5K
blue.birds
Down — $1.4K
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
EZTRADENL2
Down — $911.82