Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
44
Down 73%
6 arb excluded
$17.3K
$-7.7K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 44 top traders (73%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.1K | 58% 160-118 (278) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$21 | 34% 17-33 (50) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | +$127.9 | 46% 455-541 (996) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 532-3 (535) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 70.3¢ | $767.93 | $701.61 | -$66.32 | 60% 653-441 (1094) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.3¢ | $551.93 | $498.6 | +$2.03 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 81.6¢ | $455.74 | $432.7 | -$23.04 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 71.2¢ | $483.97 | $350.19 | -$133.78 | 42% 451-624 (1075) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.2¢ | $249.21 | $350.19 | +$100.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.8¢ | $234.76 | — | -$234.76 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 69.3¢ | $339.17 | $364.52 | +$25.35 | 55% 3928-3274 (7202) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 72.8¢ | $254.09 | $186.34 | -$67.75 | 44% 486-629 (1115) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.8¢ | $135.58 | $186.34 | +$50.76 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.3¢ | $118.51 | — | -$118.51 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 60.4¢ | $155.19 | $201.89 | +$46.7 | 56% 566-450 (1016) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 91.2¢ | $169.66 | $163.25 | -$6.16 | 50% 512-520 (1032) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 67.6¢ | $188.76 | $149.65 | -$39.11 | 52% 590-538 (1128) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 83¢ | $124.5 | $150 | +$25.5 | 53% 4236-3699 (7935) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 60.1¢ | $262.26 | $146.78 | +$41.19 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 92.6¢ | $138.18 | $149.3 | +$11.12 | 43% 706-932 (1638) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359CTR | Upavg 34.3¢ | $134.91 | — | -$134.91 | 50% 485-481 (966) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 74.7¢ | $104.74 | $120 | +$15.26 | 36% 490-866 (1356) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 57.8¢ | $123.1 | $115.95 | +$4.65 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 67.7¢ | $103.46 | $128.05 | +$24.59 | 47% 1347-1530 (2877) |
RA rabadabadooARB<$100 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $105.46 | $88.83 | -$16.63 | 47% 943-1084 (2027) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.2¢ | $56.17 | $88.83 | +$32.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.4¢ | $49.29 | — | -$49.29 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 65.8¢ | $83.37 | $79.56 | -$3.81 | 46% 636-736 (1372) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.8¢ | $52.37 | $79.56 | +$27.19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 6.4¢ | $31 | — | -$31 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $104.5 | $100 | -$4.5 | 50% 490-486 (976) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65¢ | $65 | $100 | +$35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.8¢ | $39.5 | — | -$39.5 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $87.89 | $84.29 | -$3.6 | 59% 614-422 (1036) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.6¢ | $59.52 | $84.29 | +$24.77 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.2¢ | $28.37 | — | -$28.37 |
Invested
$8,616
Value
—
PnL
$-7.1K
Record
58%
160-118 (278)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$21
Record
34%
17-33 (50)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$127.9
Record
46%
455-541 (996)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
532-3 (535)
Invested
$767.93
Value
$701.61
PnL
-$66.32
Record
60%
653-441 (1094)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$551.93
Value
$498.6
PnL
+$2.03
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Invested
$455.74
Value
$432.7
PnL
-$23.04
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$483.97
Value
$350.19
PnL
-$133.78
Record
42%
451-624 (1075)
Both legs:
Invested
$339.17
Value
$364.52
PnL
+$25.35
Record
55%
3928-3274 (7202)
Invested
$254.09
Value
$186.34
PnL
-$67.75
Record
44%
486-629 (1115)
Both legs:
Invested
$155.19
Value
$201.89
PnL
+$46.7
Record
56%
566-450 (1016)
Invested
$169.66
Value
$163.25
PnL
-$6.16
Record
50%
512-520 (1032)
Invested
$188.76
Value
$149.65
PnL
-$39.11
Record
52%
590-538 (1128)
FairValueMachineInvested
$124.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$25.5
Record
53%
4236-3699 (7935)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$262.26
Value
$146.78
PnL
+$41.19
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
machinelearnedInvested
$138.18
Value
$149.3
PnL
+$11.12
Record
43%
706-932 (1638)
Invested
$134.91
Value
—
PnL
-$134.91
Record
50%
485-481 (966)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$104.74
Value
$120
PnL
+$15.26
Record
36%
490-866 (1356)
Invested
$123.1
Value
$115.95
PnL
+$4.65
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$103.46
Value
$128.05
PnL
+$24.59
Record
47%
1347-1530 (2877)
Invested
$105.46
Value
$88.83
PnL
-$16.63
Record
47%
943-1084 (2027)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.37
Value
$79.56
PnL
-$3.81
Record
46%
636-736 (1372)
Both legs:
Invested
$104.5
Value
$100
PnL
-$4.5
Record
50%
490-486 (976)
Both legs:
Invested
$87.89
Value
$84.29
PnL
-$3.6
Record
59%
614-422 (1036)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $4.0K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $701.61
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $498.6
blue.birds
Down — $432.7
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Down — $364.52