Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.1K

Combined PnL

$-5.7K

Smart Money Signal

31 of 53 top traders (58%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up31 traders

Total Value$22.8K

Total Shares22,822

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Down22 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,967

Combined PnL$-6.7K

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	$7.6K	-$30.87	58% 160-118 (278)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-5.0K	34% 17-33 (50)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$4.68	49% 903-945 (1848)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$3.14	46% 455-541 (996)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.9K	$3.8K	+$1.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	74% 1071-381 (1452)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 63¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$122.29	60% 653-441 (1094)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 44.7¢	$665.64	$796.56	+$130.92	42% 451-624 (1075)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 58¢	$626.13	$593.17	-$32.96	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$263.78	$593.17	+$329.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$362.35	—	-$362.35
BO bosona	Upavg 84.4¢	$446.4	$515.91	+$69.5	50% 4072-4027 (8099)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$593.15	$489.98	-$4.87	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$239.18	$489.98	+$245.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$256.58	—	-$250.56
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 58.9¢	$492.95	—	-$467.03	52% 4097-3832 (7929)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$297.55	$350.1	+$52.55	44% 486-629 (1115)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.1¢	$147.3	$350.1	+$202.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$150.25	—	-$150.25
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$312.84	$316	+$3.16	98% 2299-45 (2344)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 54.3¢	$263.07	$313.77	+$72.71	53% 4236-3699 (7935)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 25.3¢	$302.92	—	-$302.92	46% 636-736 (1372)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Upavg 39¢	$141.74	$282.98	+$141.24	50% 485-481 (966)
ST stepahead	Upavg 58.8¢	$296.94	$266.6	-$30.34	55% 3928-3274 (7202)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 64.1¢	$266.58	$261.89	+$91.17	60% 605-408 (1013)
AL almach	Upavg 78.5¢	$208.32	$256.84	+$48.52	48% 838-895 (1733)
SP spartacray	Upavg 59¢	$376.87	$255.16	+$94.64	58% 593-432 (1025)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 45.5¢	$224.13	$271.74	+$47.61	36% 490-866 (1356)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.4¢	$100.38	—	-$100.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.5¢	$123.75	$271.74	+$147.99
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$204.07	$224.07	+$20	49% 474-488 (962)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$92.38	$224.07	+$131.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$111.69	—	-$111.69
PB PBot-6	Upavg 46.8¢	$187.08	$399.37	+$212.3	50% 450-448 (898)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 42.6¢	$142.68	—	-$142.68	53% 1399-1261 (2660)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,690

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$30.87

Record

58%

160-118 (278)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

34%

17-33 (50)

0x50f7

Invested

$4,678.29

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$4.68

Record

49%

903-945 (1848)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$3.14

Record

46%

455-541 (996)

Both legs:

Up$1,910.6650¢+$1.9K

Down$1,925.450¢$-1.9K

BoneOhio

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

74%

1071-381 (1452)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,477.97

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$122.29

Record

60%

653-441 (1094)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$665.64

Value

$796.56

PnL

+$130.92

Record

42%

451-624 (1075)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$626.13

Value

$593.17

PnL

-$32.96

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

Both legs:

Up$263.7844.5¢+$329.39

Down$362.3558¢-$362.35

bosona

Invested

$446.4

Value

$515.91

PnL

+$69.5

Record

50%

4072-4027 (8099)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$593.15

Value

$489.98

PnL

-$4.87

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

Both legs:

Up$239.1848.8¢+$245.69

Down$256.5850¢-$250.56

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$492.95

Value

—

PnL

-$467.03

Record

52%

4097-3832 (7929)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$297.55

Value

$350.1

PnL

+$52.55

Record

44%

486-629 (1115)

Both legs:

Up$147.342.1¢+$202.8

Down$150.2550¢-$150.25

hoodquant

Invested

$312.84

Value

$316

PnL

+$3.16

Record

98%

2299-45 (2344)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$263.07

Value

$313.77

PnL

+$72.71

Record

53%

4236-3699 (7935)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$302.92

Value

—

PnL

-$302.92

Record

46%

636-736 (1372)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Invested

$141.74

Value

$282.98

PnL

+$141.24

Record

50%

485-481 (966)

stepahead

Invested

$296.94

Value

$266.6

PnL

-$30.34

Record

55%

3928-3274 (7202)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$266.58

Value

$261.89

PnL

+$91.17

Record

60%

605-408 (1013)

almach

Invested

$208.32

Value

$256.84

PnL

+$48.52

Record

48%

838-895 (1733)

spartacray

Invested

$376.87

Value

$255.16

PnL

+$94.64

Record

58%

593-432 (1025)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$224.13

Value

$271.74

PnL

+$47.61

Record

36%

490-866 (1356)

Both legs:

Down$100.3847.4¢-$100.38

Up$123.7545.5¢+$147.99

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$204.07

Value

$224.07

PnL

+$20

Record

49%

474-488 (962)

Both legs:

Up$92.3841.2¢+$131.69

Down$111.6951.1¢-$111.69

PBot-6

Invested

$187.08

Value

$399.37

PnL

+$212.3

Record

50%

450-448 (898)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$142.68

Value

—

PnL

-$142.68

Record

53%

1399-1261 (2660)

Smart Money Signal

31 of 53 top traders (58%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x11ba9452...af5d92

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794508200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.6K

-$30.87

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Down — $0

$-5.0K

0x50f7

Up — $4.7K

+$4.68

machine-earning

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$3.14

BoneOhio

Up — $3.5K

+$35

Bonereaper

Up — $1.6K

+$122.29

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $796.56

+$130.92

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$32.96

bosona

Up — $515.91

+$69.5

QuantumPebble673

Up — $500

+$0

Trade on Polymarket