Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
58
Up 62%
1 arb excluded
$22.1K
$-4.6K
Smart Money Signal
36 of 58 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.9K | +$88.77 | 58% 160-118 (278) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | -$0.52 | 34% 17-33 (50) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.8K | 46% 455-541 (996) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 90.6¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$4.8 | 60% 653-441 (1094) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 79.4¢ | $635.86 | $658.6 | +$22.74 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 75.2¢ | $582.86 | $536.97 | -$45.88 | 42% 451-624 (1075) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 48.3¢ | $560.81 | — | -$500.15 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 70.4¢ | $377.58 | $421.28 | +$43.69 | 55% 3928-3274 (7202) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 52¢ | $296.89 | $570.53 | +$273.64 | 48% 1191-1298 (2489) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 74.3¢ | $250.82 | $312.39 | +$61.58 | 44% 1316-1666 (2982) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 80.1¢ | $298.91 | $283.91 | -$15 | 53% 533-480 (1013) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 76.3¢ | $252.35 | $217.02 | -$35.33 | 44% 486-629 (1115) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 75.1¢ | $214.05 | $210.46 | -$3.59 | 52% 590-538 (1128) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 69.8¢ | $308.91 | $205 | -$23.91 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 76¢ | $241.53 | $195.11 | -$25.43 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 85.2¢ | $188.97 | $196.98 | +$8.01 | 59% 614-422 (1036) |
RA rabadabadoo | Upavg 67.5¢ | $164.26 | $189.74 | +$29.22 | 47% 943-1084 (2027) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 89.4¢ | $183.92 | $186.31 | +$2.38 | 50% 512-520 (1032) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 75.9¢ | $164.99 | $174.12 | +$23.24 | 66% 2271-1160 (3431) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 73.3¢ | $160.79 | $175.92 | +$15.13 | 36% 490-866 (1356) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 22.1¢ | $240.73 | — | -$222.88 | 46% 636-736 (1372) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 85¢ | $160.11 | $188.36 | +$28.25 | 43% 706-932 (1638) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 93.7¢ | $117.41 | $96.83 | -$20.57 | 56% 566-450 (1016) |
SP spartacrayARB<$100 | Downavg 23.8¢ | $96.38 | $80.22 | -$16.17 | 58% 593-432 (1025) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.6¢ | $46.18 | $80.22 | +$34.04 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23.8¢ | $50.2 | — | -$50.2 |
Invested
$8,566
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$88.77
Record
58%
160-118 (278)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$0.52
Record
34%
17-33 (50)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
46%
455-541 (996)
Invested
$3,163.4
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$4.8
Record
60%
653-441 (1094)
Invested
$635.86
Value
$658.6
PnL
+$22.74
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$582.86
Value
$536.97
PnL
-$45.88
Record
42%
451-624 (1075)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$560.81
Value
—
PnL
-$500.15
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Invested
$377.58
Value
$421.28
PnL
+$43.69
Record
55%
3928-3274 (7202)
Invested
$296.89
Value
$570.53
PnL
+$273.64
Record
48%
1191-1298 (2489)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$250.82
Value
$312.39
PnL
+$61.58
Record
44%
1316-1666 (2982)
Invested
$298.91
Value
$283.91
PnL
-$15
Record
53%
533-480 (1013)
Invested
$252.35
Value
$217.02
PnL
-$35.33
Record
44%
486-629 (1115)
Invested
$214.05
Value
$210.46
PnL
-$3.59
Record
52%
590-538 (1128)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$308.91
Value
$205
PnL
-$23.91
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
Invested
$241.53
Value
$195.11
PnL
-$25.43
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$188.97
Value
$196.98
PnL
+$8.01
Record
59%
614-422 (1036)
Invested
$164.26
Value
$189.74
PnL
+$29.22
Record
47%
943-1084 (2027)
Invested
$183.92
Value
$186.31
PnL
+$2.38
Record
50%
512-520 (1032)
Invested
$164.99
Value
$174.12
PnL
+$23.24
Record
66%
2271-1160 (3431)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$160.79
Value
$175.92
PnL
+$15.13
Record
36%
490-866 (1356)
Invested
$240.73
Value
—
PnL
-$222.88
Record
46%
636-736 (1372)
machinelearnedInvested
$160.11
Value
$188.36
PnL
+$28.25
Record
43%
706-932 (1638)
Invested
$117.41
Value
$96.83
PnL
-$20.57
Record
56%
566-450 (1016)
Invested
$96.38
Value
$80.22
PnL
-$16.17
Record
58%
593-432 (1025)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.9K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $3.2K
blue.birds
Up — $658.6
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $536.97
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $421.28
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $570.53