Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$18.3K
$-17.9K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 57 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.8K | 58% 160-118 (278) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 34% 17-33 (50) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.8K | 46% 455-541 (996) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 532-3 (535) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.08 | 49% 903-945 (1848) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30 | 74% 1071-381 (1452) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$8 | 48% 1191-1298 (2489) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 87.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$27.1 | 60% 653-441 (1094) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 49¢ | $587.98 | — | -$587.98 | 50% 450-448 (898) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
MO mo-money | Downavg 99¢ | $588.04 | $500 | -$88.04 | 48% 840-911 (1751) |
AL almach | Downavg 99¢ | $524.98 | $500 | -$24.98 | 48% 838-895 (1733) |
BO bosona | Downavg 99¢ | $495 | $500 | +$5 | 50% 4072-4027 (8099) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $529.24 | $500.07 | +$6.22 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 86.5¢ | $392.58 | $438 | +$45.42 | 48% 468-499 (967) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 76.9¢ | $341.4 | $316.01 | -$25.39 | 42% 451-624 (1075) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 84¢ | $255 | $300 | +$45 | 54% 233-200 (433) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 91.7¢ | $260.39 | $283.84 | +$23.44 | 43% 706-932 (1638) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 91.6¢ | $272.9 | $275 | +$2.1 | 50% 512-520 (1032) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.4¢ | $232.13 | $236 | +$3.87 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 76.1¢ | $194.33 | $201.43 | +$7.1 | 55% 3928-3274 (7202) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 80.4¢ | $129.59 | $134.56 | +$4.97 | 36% 490-866 (1356) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 86.3¢ | $141.29 | $124.91 | -$16.38 | 56% 566-450 (1016) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 84.2¢ | $126.18 | $134.43 | +$8.25 | 44% 486-629 (1115) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 85.6¢ | $89.66 | $104.35 | +$14.69 | 60% 605-408 (1013) |
Invested
$8,611
Value
—
PnL
$-7.8K
Record
58%
160-118 (278)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
34%
17-33 (50)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
46%
455-541 (996)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
532-3 (535)
Invested
$2,977.93
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.08
Record
49%
903-945 (1848)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
74%
1071-381 (1452)
Invested
$1,992
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$8
Record
48%
1191-1298 (2489)
Invested
$1,419.06
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$27.1
Record
60%
653-441 (1094)
Invested
$587.98
Value
—
PnL
-$587.98
Record
50%
450-448 (898)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$588.04
Value
$500
PnL
-$88.04
Record
48%
840-911 (1751)
Invested
$524.98
Value
$500
PnL
-$24.98
Record
48%
838-895 (1733)
Invested
$495
Value
$500
PnL
+$5
Record
50%
4072-4027 (8099)
Invested
$529.24
Value
$500.07
PnL
+$6.22
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Invested
$392.58
Value
$438
PnL
+$45.42
Record
48%
468-499 (967)
Invested
$341.4
Value
$316.01
PnL
-$25.39
Record
42%
451-624 (1075)
Invested
$255
Value
$300
PnL
+$45
Record
54%
233-200 (433)
machinelearnedInvested
$260.39
Value
$283.84
PnL
+$23.44
Record
43%
706-932 (1638)
Invested
$272.9
Value
$275
PnL
+$2.1
Record
50%
512-520 (1032)
Invested
$232.13
Value
$236
PnL
+$3.87
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
Invested
$194.33
Value
$201.43
PnL
+$7.1
Record
55%
3928-3274 (7202)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$129.59
Value
$134.56
PnL
+$4.97
Record
36%
490-866 (1356)
Invested
$141.29
Value
$124.91
PnL
-$16.38
Record
56%
566-450 (1016)
Invested
$126.18
Value
$134.43
PnL
+$8.25
Record
44%
486-629 (1115)
Invested
$89.66
Value
$104.35
PnL
+$14.69
Record
60%
605-408 (1013)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.0K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.4K
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0