Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Down 77%
3 arb excluded
$17.5K
$-17.5K
Smart Money Signal
46 of 60 top traders (77%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-7.9K | 58% 160-118 (278) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $5.3K | $5.3K | +$5.27 | 49% 903-945 (1848) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.1K | 34% 17-33 (50) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 532-3 (535) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 46% 455-541 (996) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$8.4 | 47% 935-1043 (1978) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 82.2¢ | $1.0K | $993.26 | -$21.89 | 60% 653-441 (1094) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$900.4 | 51% 2178-2103 (4281) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 48.4¢ | $816.39 | — | -$816.39 | 50% 450-448 (898) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $543.72 | $495.15 | +$9.21 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 83.7¢ | $425.45 | $473.89 | +$48.44 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 92.6¢ | $432.09 | $432.32 | +$0.23 | 50% 512-520 (1032) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 74.5¢ | $371.2 | $409.86 | +$38.67 | 55% 3928-3274 (7202) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 73.8¢ | $385.29 | $380.84 | -$0.37 | 42% 451-624 (1075) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Downavg 93.3¢ | $264.23 | $277.77 | +$13.54 | 50% 4072-4027 (8099) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 93.3¢ | $259.16 | $277.77 | +$18.61 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 1¢ | $5.08 | — | -$5.08 | |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 48¢ | $172.44 | $300 | +$127.56 | 54% 233-200 (433) |
SU suntori | Downavg 96.2¢ | $396.39 | $279.99 | -$79.28 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 84.3¢ | $296.79 | $259.33 | +$9.6 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 78.6¢ | $246.07 | $221.35 | -$24.73 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 81¢ | $185.2 | $218.1 | +$32.9 | 60% 605-408 (1013) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 80¢ | $194.96 | $199.58 | +$4.62 | 36% 490-866 (1356) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $222.83 | $160.6 | -$62.23 | 44% 486-629 (1115) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 86.6¢ | $139.15 | $160.6 | +$21.44 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.1¢ | $83.67 | — | -$83.67 | |
SP spartacray | Downavg 84.4¢ | $187.73 | $181.68 | +$17.79 | 58% 593-432 (1025) |
AL almach | Downavg 96.7¢ | $182.16 | $147.2 | -$34.96 | 48% 838-895 (1733) |
Invested
$8,930
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
58%
160-118 (278)
Invested
$5,262.74
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$5.27
Record
49%
903-945 (1848)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.1K
Record
34%
17-33 (50)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
532-3 (535)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
46%
455-541 (996)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$1,391.6
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$8.4
Record
47%
935-1043 (1978)
Invested
$1,017.17
Value
$993.26
PnL
-$21.89
Record
60%
653-441 (1094)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$900.4
Record
51%
2178-2103 (4281)
Invested
$816.39
Value
—
PnL
-$816.39
Record
50%
450-448 (898)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$543.72
Value
$495.15
PnL
+$9.21
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Invested
$425.45
Value
$473.89
PnL
+$48.44
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$432.09
Value
$432.32
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
512-520 (1032)
Invested
$371.2
Value
$409.86
PnL
+$38.67
Record
55%
3928-3274 (7202)
Invested
$385.29
Value
$380.84
PnL
-$0.37
Record
42%
451-624 (1075)
Invested
$264.23
Value
$277.77
PnL
+$13.54
Record
50%
4072-4027 (8099)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.44
Value
$300
PnL
+$127.56
Record
54%
233-200 (433)
Invested
$396.39
Value
$279.99
PnL
-$79.28
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$296.79
Value
$259.33
PnL
+$9.6
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
Invested
$246.07
Value
$221.35
PnL
-$24.73
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$185.2
Value
$218.1
PnL
+$32.9
Record
60%
605-408 (1013)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$194.96
Value
$199.58
PnL
+$4.62
Record
36%
490-866 (1356)
Invested
$222.83
Value
$160.6
PnL
-$62.23
Record
44%
486-629 (1115)
Both legs:
Invested
$187.73
Value
$181.68
PnL
+$17.79
Record
58%
593-432 (1025)
Invested
$182.16
Value
$147.2
PnL
-$34.96
Record
48%
838-895 (1733)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $5.3K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $1.4K
Bonereaper
Down — $993.26
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
PBot-6
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0