Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Up 59%
1 arb excluded
$17.2K
$-12.8K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 59 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-6.9K | 58% 160-118 (278) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 34% 17-33 (50) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | -$20.08 | 46% 455-541 (996) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.9K | $3.8K | +$1.9K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 532-3 (535) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 50.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$61.33 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 65.2¢ | $822.27 | — | -$822.27 | 60% 653-441 (1094) |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $775.97 | $1.6K | +$823.97 | 50% 450-448 (898) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 47.9¢ | $690.6 | — | -$690.6 | 42% 451-624 (1075) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $755.17 | $763 | +$7.83 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 73.3¢ | $683.72 | $641.98 | -$41.74 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 67.9¢ | $415.24 | $499.97 | +$84.73 | 50% 512-520 (1032) |
AL almach | Upavg 9¢ | $45.24 | $500 | +$454.76 | 48% 838-895 (1733) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 9¢ | $58.27 | $500 | +$441.73 | 48% 840-911 (1751) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 51.8¢ | $549.15 | — | -$500.67 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 52.6¢ | $450.18 | $440.68 | -$8.9 | 44% 486-629 (1115) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 24.5¢ | $287.67 | — | -$267.72 | 46% 636-736 (1372) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 57.1¢ | $336.98 | $387.3 | +$54.3 | 56% 566-450 (1016) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 46.1¢ | $332.36 | — | -$292.59 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 55.2¢ | $293.06 | $349.87 | +$57.7 | 36% 490-866 (1356) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 60.4¢ | $283.86 | — | -$283.86 | 55% 3928-3274 (7202) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 35.3¢ | $116.29 | $326.35 | +$210.05 | 51% 493-474 (967) |
BO bosona | Upavg 82.4¢ | $242.38 | $287.07 | +$44.69 | 50% 4072-4027 (8099) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 51.6¢ | $209.47 | $279.34 | +$69.87 | 53% 4236-3699 (7935) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 78.4¢ | $215.94 | $194.23 | -$21.71 | 53% 533-480 (1013) |
Invested
$8,588
Value
—
PnL
$-6.9K
Record
58%
160-118 (278)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
34%
17-33 (50)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$20.08
Record
46%
455-541 (996)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
532-3 (535)
Invested
$1,059.19
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$61.33
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$822.27
Value
—
PnL
-$822.27
Record
60%
653-441 (1094)
Invested
$775.97
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$823.97
Record
50%
450-448 (898)
Invested
$690.6
Value
—
PnL
-$690.6
Record
42%
451-624 (1075)
Invested
$755.17
Value
$763
PnL
+$7.83
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
Invested
$683.72
Value
$641.98
PnL
-$41.74
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$415.24
Value
$499.97
PnL
+$84.73
Record
50%
512-520 (1032)
Invested
$45.24
Value
$500
PnL
+$454.76
Record
48%
838-895 (1733)
Invested
$58.27
Value
$500
PnL
+$441.73
Record
48%
840-911 (1751)
Invested
$549.15
Value
—
PnL
-$500.67
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Invested
$450.18
Value
$440.68
PnL
-$8.9
Record
44%
486-629 (1115)
Invested
$287.67
Value
—
PnL
-$267.72
Record
46%
636-736 (1372)
Invested
$336.98
Value
$387.3
PnL
+$54.3
Record
56%
566-450 (1016)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$332.36
Value
—
PnL
-$292.59
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$293.06
Value
$349.87
PnL
+$57.7
Record
36%
490-866 (1356)
Invested
$283.86
Value
—
PnL
-$283.86
Record
55%
3928-3274 (7202)
Invested
$116.29
Value
$326.35
PnL
+$210.05
Record
51%
493-474 (967)
Invested
$242.38
Value
$287.07
PnL
+$44.69
Record
50%
4072-4027 (8099)
FairValueMachineInvested
$209.47
Value
$279.34
PnL
+$69.87
Record
53%
4236-3699 (7935)
Invested
$215.94
Value
$194.23
PnL
-$21.71
Record
53%
533-480 (1013)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
THG.
Up — $3.5K
blue.birds
Up — $1.1K
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
PBot-6
Up — $1.6K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $763
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $641.98