Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Up 62%
8 arb excluded
$15.4K
$-9.8K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 52 top traders (62%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $7.2K | -$24.73 | 58% 160-118 (278) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 34% 17-33 (50) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.8K | 46% 455-541 (996) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 90.1¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$67.27 | 60% 653-441 (1094) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$914 | 51% 2178-2103 (4281) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 74.7¢ | $643.62 | $668.87 | +$25.25 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $537.48 | $492.77 | +$1.97 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 74.5¢ | $579.17 | $450.45 | -$120.52 | 42% 451-624 (1075) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 63.7¢ | $398.55 | $394.36 | -$4.19 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 71.7¢ | $358.63 | $387.86 | +$29.23 | 55% 3928-3274 (7202) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 68¢ | $306.76 | $301.18 | +$52.81 | 54% 233-200 (433) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 73.9¢ | $303.54 | $272.27 | -$31.26 | 44% 486-629 (1115) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 26.1¢ | $257.78 | $184.19 | -$73.6 | 46% 636-736 (1372) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.4¢ | $113.15 | $184.19 | +$71.04 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.1¢ | $144.64 | — | -$144.64 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 66.3¢ | $207.1 | $263.12 | +$90.09 | 59% 614-422 (1036) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 75.3¢ | $177.74 | $199.99 | +$22.25 | 50% 512-520 (1032) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 96.9¢ | $179.97 | $185.72 | +$5.75 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 35.8¢ | $193.04 | $164.23 | -$28.82 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.7¢ | $88.18 | $164.23 | +$76.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.8¢ | $104.87 | — | -$104.87 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 66.3¢ | $166.29 | $170.94 | +$4.64 | 36% 490-866 (1356) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 67.3¢ | $163.49 | $176.9 | +$64.14 | 60% 605-408 (1013) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $164.01 | $157.89 | -$6.12 | 43% 706-932 (1638) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64¢ | $101.05 | $157.89 | +$56.84 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.5¢ | $62.96 | — | -$62.96 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 62.4¢ | $152.79 | $150.12 | -$2.67 | 48% 468-499 (967) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 82¢ | $143.45 | $138.24 | -$3.68 | 56% 566-450 (1016) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 63.8¢ | $121.86 | $135.13 | +$13.27 | 52% 590-538 (1128) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.8¢ | $86.24 | $135.13 | +$48.89 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39¢ | $35.62 | — | -$35.62 | |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $91.2 | $84.5 | -$6.7 | 45% 435-541 (976) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64¢ | $54.08 | $84.5 | +$30.42 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.2¢ | $37.12 | — | -$37.12 |
Invested
$8,759
Value
$7.2K
PnL
-$24.73
Record
58%
160-118 (278)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
34%
17-33 (50)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
46%
455-541 (996)
Invested
$1,879
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$67.27
Record
60%
653-441 (1094)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$914
Record
51%
2178-2103 (4281)
Invested
$643.62
Value
$668.87
PnL
+$25.25
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$537.48
Value
$492.77
PnL
+$1.97
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Invested
$579.17
Value
$450.45
PnL
-$120.52
Record
42%
451-624 (1075)
Invested
$398.55
Value
$394.36
PnL
-$4.19
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$358.63
Value
$387.86
PnL
+$29.23
Record
55%
3928-3274 (7202)
Invested
$306.76
Value
$301.18
PnL
+$52.81
Record
54%
233-200 (433)
Invested
$303.54
Value
$272.27
PnL
-$31.26
Record
44%
486-629 (1115)
Invested
$257.78
Value
$184.19
PnL
-$73.6
Record
46%
636-736 (1372)
Both legs:
Invested
$207.1
Value
$263.12
PnL
+$90.09
Record
59%
614-422 (1036)
Invested
$177.74
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$22.25
Record
50%
512-520 (1032)
Invested
$179.97
Value
$185.72
PnL
+$5.75
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$193.04
Value
$164.23
PnL
-$28.82
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$166.29
Value
$170.94
PnL
+$4.64
Record
36%
490-866 (1356)
Invested
$163.49
Value
$176.9
PnL
+$64.14
Record
60%
605-408 (1013)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$164.01
Value
$157.89
PnL
-$6.12
Record
43%
706-932 (1638)
Both legs:
Invested
$152.79
Value
$150.12
PnL
-$2.67
Record
48%
468-499 (967)
Invested
$143.45
Value
$138.24
PnL
-$3.68
Record
56%
566-450 (1016)
Invested
$121.86
Value
$135.13
PnL
+$13.27
Record
52%
590-538 (1128)
Both legs:
Invested
$91.2
Value
$84.5
PnL
-$6.7
Record
45%
435-541 (976)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.2K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $1.8K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $668.87
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
Up — $492.77
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $450.45
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $394.36