Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Up 65%
10 arb excluded
$24.6K
$-10.4K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 53 top traders (66%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.1K | 58% 160-118 (278) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$230.66 | 34% 17-33 (50) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | +$296.76 | 46% 455-541 (996) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.8K | $3.7K | +$1.9K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.6K | |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.7K | $3.5K | -$153.23 | 74% 1071-381 (1452) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 44.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$212.97 | 42% 451-624 (1075) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 45.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$277.64 | 60% 653-441 (1094) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.38 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 64.8¢ | $826.69 | — | -$821.65 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 33.5¢ | $587.05 | — | -$587.05 | 46% 636-736 (1372) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 40.2¢ | $758.56 | — | -$756.02 | 44% 486-629 (1115) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 67.2¢ | $827.43 | $752.79 | -$74.64 | 55% 3928-3274 (7202) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 51.1¢ | $542.7 | — | -$542.7 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 67.4¢ | $415.33 | $517.61 | +$143.06 | 48% 840-911 (1751) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 53.2¢ | $605.75 | — | -$505.34 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 69.7¢ | $322.53 | $462.7 | +$140.17 | 19% 237-1022 (1259) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 48.5¢ | $304.16 | $416.3 | +$112.14 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 62.1¢ | $377.09 | $411.59 | +$36.25 | 56% 566-450 (1016) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 74.7¢ | $368.07 | $402.85 | +$34.78 | 48% 468-499 (967) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 35.2¢ | $365.11 | — | -$365.11 | 53% 4236-3699 (7935) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 39.9¢ | $252.06 | $399.73 | +$147.67 | 36% 490-866 (1356) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $352.75 | $265.17 | -$87.58 | 49% 474-488 (962) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.4¢ | $263.57 | — | -$263.57 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.6¢ | $89.19 | $265.17 | +$175.99 | |
PB PBot-6CTR | Downavg 49¢ | $343.16 | — | -$343.16 | 50% 450-448 (898) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 76.8¢ | $350.51 | $316.82 | -$30.19 | 50% 512-520 (1032) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 51.7¢ | $318.65 | — | -$318.65 | 52% 590-538 (1128) |
Invested
$8,562
Value
—
PnL
$-7.1K
Record
58%
160-118 (278)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$230.66
Record
34%
17-33 (50)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$296.76
Record
46%
455-541 (996)
Both legs:
BoneOhioInvested
$3,654.98
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$153.23
Record
74%
1071-381 (1452)
Invested
$1,451.15
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$212.97
Record
42%
451-624 (1075)
Invested
$1,267.15
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$277.64
Record
60%
653-441 (1094)
Invested
$1,126.62
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.38
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
Invested
$826.69
Value
—
PnL
-$821.65
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$587.05
Value
—
PnL
-$587.05
Record
46%
636-736 (1372)
Invested
$758.56
Value
—
PnL
-$756.02
Record
44%
486-629 (1115)
Invested
$827.43
Value
$752.79
PnL
-$74.64
Record
55%
3928-3274 (7202)
Invested
$542.7
Value
—
PnL
-$542.7
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$415.33
Value
$517.61
PnL
+$143.06
Record
48%
840-911 (1751)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$605.75
Value
—
PnL
-$505.34
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
NIULAI4Invested
$322.53
Value
$462.7
PnL
+$140.17
Record
19%
237-1022 (1259)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$304.16
Value
$416.3
PnL
+$112.14
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
Invested
$377.09
Value
$411.59
PnL
+$36.25
Record
56%
566-450 (1016)
Invested
$368.07
Value
$402.85
PnL
+$34.78
Record
48%
468-499 (967)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$365.11
Value
—
PnL
-$365.11
Record
53%
4236-3699 (7935)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$252.06
Value
$399.73
PnL
+$147.67
Record
36%
490-866 (1356)
Invested
$352.75
Value
$265.17
PnL
-$87.58
Record
49%
474-488 (962)
Both legs:
Invested
$343.16
Value
—
PnL
-$343.16
Record
50%
450-448 (898)
Invested
$350.51
Value
$316.82
PnL
-$30.19
Record
50%
512-520 (1032)
Invested
$318.65
Value
—
PnL
-$318.65
Record
52%
590-538 (1128)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
BoneOhio
Up — $3.5K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.7K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.5K
hoodquant
Up — $1.1K
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
GoodFallen
CTRDown — $0