Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Down 59%
3 arb excluded
$15.1K
$-8.2K
Smart Money Signal
30 of 52 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-7.0K | 58% 160-118 (278) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$0.5 | 34% 17-33 (50) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$80.63 | 46% 455-541 (996) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 86.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$65.42 | 60% 653-441 (1094) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 70.5¢ | $587.25 | $514.64 | -$72.61 | 42% 451-624 (1075) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.2¢ | $508.53 | — | -$493.95 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
BO bosona | Downavg 88¢ | $462.37 | $522.84 | +$60.46 | 50% 4072-4027 (8099) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 75.5¢ | $340.41 | $338.04 | -$2.37 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 65.2¢ | $300.36 | $312.96 | +$12.59 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 65.2¢ | $316.84 | $286.5 | -$30.34 | 55% 3928-3274 (7202) |
AL almach | Downavg 90¢ | $255.11 | $283.45 | +$28.34 | 48% 838-895 (1733) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 59¢ | $189.09 | $320.49 | +$131.4 | 48% 840-911 (1751) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $239.34 | $180.63 | -$58.71 | 51% 493-474 (967) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 34.4¢ | $228.09 | — | -$228.09 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 72.1¢ | $180.08 | $190 | +$9.92 | 36% 490-866 (1356) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 56¢ | $89.6 | $160 | +$70.4 | 51% 1376-1320 (2696) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 93.1¢ | $148.07 | $149.33 | +$1.26 | 50% 512-520 (1032) |
RA rabadabadooARB<$100 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $110.6 | $99.1 | -$11.51 | 47% 943-1084 (2027) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.2¢ | $56.72 | $99.1 | +$42.38 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.1¢ | $53.89 | — | -$53.89 | |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $98 | — | -$98 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 73.4¢ | $84.43 | $98.76 | +$14.7 | 62% 2642-1602 (4244) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 44.5¢ | $42.5 | $95.54 | +$53.04 | 53% 649-572 (1221) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 50¢ | $70.28 | $100 | +$29.72 | 49% 474-488 (962) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 36.9¢ | $132.27 | $73.03 | -$59.24 | 44% 486-629 (1115) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.2¢ | $44.72 | $73.03 | +$28.31 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.9¢ | $87.55 | — | -$87.55 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 88.4¢ | $82.25 | $93 | +$10.75 | 53% 533-480 (1013) |
Invested
$8,923
Value
—
PnL
$-7.0K
Record
58%
160-118 (278)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$0.5
Record
34%
17-33 (50)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$80.63
Record
46%
455-541 (996)
Invested
$1,784.3
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$65.42
Record
60%
653-441 (1094)
Invested
$587.25
Value
$514.64
PnL
-$72.61
Record
42%
451-624 (1075)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$508.53
Value
—
PnL
-$493.95
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Invested
$462.37
Value
$522.84
PnL
+$60.46
Record
50%
4072-4027 (8099)
Invested
$340.41
Value
$338.04
PnL
-$2.37
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$300.36
Value
$312.96
PnL
+$12.59
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$316.84
Value
$286.5
PnL
-$30.34
Record
55%
3928-3274 (7202)
Invested
$255.11
Value
$283.45
PnL
+$28.34
Record
48%
838-895 (1733)
Invested
$189.09
Value
$320.49
PnL
+$131.4
Record
48%
840-911 (1751)
Invested
$239.34
Value
$180.63
PnL
-$58.71
Record
51%
493-474 (967)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$228.09
Value
—
PnL
-$228.09
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$180.08
Value
$190
PnL
+$9.92
Record
36%
490-866 (1356)
Invested
$89.6
Value
$160
PnL
+$70.4
Record
51%
1376-1320 (2696)
Invested
$148.07
Value
$149.33
PnL
+$1.26
Record
50%
512-520 (1032)
Invested
$110.6
Value
$99.1
PnL
-$11.51
Record
47%
943-1084 (2027)
Both legs:
Invested
$98
Value
—
PnL
-$98
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$84.43
Value
$98.76
PnL
+$14.7
Record
62%
2642-1602 (4244)
Invested
$42.5
Value
$95.54
PnL
+$53.04
Record
53%
649-572 (1221)
Invested
$70.28
Value
$100
PnL
+$29.72
Record
49%
474-488 (962)
Invested
$132.27
Value
$73.03
PnL
-$59.24
Record
44%
486-629 (1115)
Both legs:
Invested
$82.25
Value
$93
PnL
+$10.75
Record
53%
533-480 (1013)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.8K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $514.64
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
bosona
Down — $522.84
blue.birds
Down — $338.04
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $312.96