Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
59
Down 46%
5 arb excluded
$14.1K
$-13.6K
Smart Money Signal
27 of 59 top traders (46%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.5K | 58% 160-118 (278) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.3K | 34% 17-33 (50) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | -$44.14 | 46% 455-541 (996) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.9K | $3.7K | +$1.9K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$12.62 | 99% 532-3 (535) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 49.2¢ | $818.89 | $997.62 | +$178.74 | 42% 451-624 (1075) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 56.4¢ | $849.61 | $970.04 | +$125.08 | 60% 653-441 (1094) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$919.25 | 51% 2178-2103 (4281) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 66.2¢ | $770.67 | $757.48 | -$13.19 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 56.5¢ | $536.94 | $597.72 | +$60.78 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 58.4¢ | $480.01 | $552.9 | +$72.9 | 44% 486-629 (1115) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 23.6¢ | $394.64 | — | -$394.64 | 46% 636-736 (1372) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $590.45 | $494.91 | -$5.64 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 50.1¢ | $405.5 | $457.1 | +$51.6 | 55% 3928-3274 (7202) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 68¢ | $299.77 | $345.7 | +$45.93 | 60% 605-408 (1013) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 70.2¢ | $278.33 | $329.06 | +$66.96 | 58% 593-432 (1025) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 63.6¢ | $276.99 | $306.47 | +$29.48 | 50% 512-520 (1032) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 62.3¢ | $302.31 | $307.69 | +$5.38 | 56% 566-450 (1016) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 75¢ | $262.09 | $261.99 | -$0.1 | 53% 4236-3699 (7935) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 41.6¢ | $237.24 | — | -$237.24 | 36% 490-866 (1356) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR | Downavg 28.1¢ | $165.27 | — | -$165.27 | 48% 468-499 (967) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 35.7¢ | $343.9 | $195 | +$63.75 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.4¢ | $80.72 | $195 | +$129.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.7¢ | $92.28 | — | -$66.03 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 63.1¢ | $233.24 | $227.12 | +$65.69 | 59% 614-422 (1036) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 52.7¢ | $202.31 | $198.83 | -$3.48 | 52% 590-538 (1128) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 88¢ | $345.5 | $200 | -$133.5 | 51% 1376-1320 (2696) |
Invested
$8,600
Value
—
PnL
$-7.5K
Record
58%
160-118 (278)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.3K
Record
34%
17-33 (50)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$44.14
Record
46%
455-541 (996)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,249.77
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$12.62
Record
99%
532-3 (535)
Invested
$818.89
Value
$997.62
PnL
+$178.74
Record
42%
451-624 (1075)
Invested
$849.61
Value
$970.04
PnL
+$125.08
Record
60%
653-441 (1094)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$919.25
Record
51%
2178-2103 (4281)
Invested
$770.67
Value
$757.48
PnL
-$13.19
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$536.94
Value
$597.72
PnL
+$60.78
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$480.01
Value
$552.9
PnL
+$72.9
Record
44%
486-629 (1115)
Invested
$394.64
Value
—
PnL
-$394.64
Record
46%
636-736 (1372)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$590.45
Value
$494.91
PnL
-$5.64
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Invested
$405.5
Value
$457.1
PnL
+$51.6
Record
55%
3928-3274 (7202)
Invested
$299.77
Value
$345.7
PnL
+$45.93
Record
60%
605-408 (1013)
Invested
$278.33
Value
$329.06
PnL
+$66.96
Record
58%
593-432 (1025)
Invested
$276.99
Value
$306.47
PnL
+$29.48
Record
50%
512-520 (1032)
Invested
$302.31
Value
$307.69
PnL
+$5.38
Record
56%
566-450 (1016)
FairValueMachineInvested
$262.09
Value
$261.99
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
4236-3699 (7935)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$237.24
Value
—
PnL
-$237.24
Record
36%
490-866 (1356)
Invested
$165.27
Value
—
PnL
-$165.27
Record
48%
468-499 (967)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$343.9
Value
$195
PnL
+$63.75
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
Both legs:
Invested
$233.24
Value
$227.12
PnL
+$65.69
Record
59%
614-422 (1036)
Invested
$202.31
Value
$198.83
PnL
-$3.48
Record
52%
590-538 (1128)
Invested
$345.5
Value
$200
PnL
-$133.5
Record
51%
1376-1320 (2696)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
THG.
Up — $1.3K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $997.62
Bonereaper
Up — $970.04
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $757.48
blue.birds
Up — $597.72
GoodFallen
Up — $552.9