Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
62
Down 65%
3 arb excluded
$21.4K
$-10.9K
Smart Money Signal
39 of 62 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-7.1K | 58% 160-118 (278) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$8.4 | 34% 17-33 (50) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$26.33 | 46% 455-541 (996) |
TH THG. | Downavg 98.9¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$39.8 | 99% 532-3 (535) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 49.1¢ | $990.32 | — | -$990.09 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 45.6¢ | $897.72 | — | -$869.82 | 42% 451-624 (1075) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $910 | -$2.91 | 51% 2178-2103 (4281) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 41.7¢ | $569.93 | $690.04 | +$120.11 | 46% 636-736 (1372) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 56.8¢ | $614.35 | — | -$590.2 | 60% 653-441 (1094) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 73.1¢ | $485.18 | — | -$485.18 | 55% 3928-3274 (7202) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $596.77 | $502.17 | -$94.61 | 45% 435-541 (976) |
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 51.1¢ | $584.84 | — | -$492.96 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 36.6¢ | $457.68 | — | -$452.16 | 44% 486-629 (1115) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 92.5¢ | $496.33 | $438.57 | -$57.77 | 48% 840-911 (1751) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 67.5¢ | $525.23 | — | -$519.26 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 46.3¢ | $370 | $800 | +$430 | 50% 450-448 (898) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 69.4¢ | $338.63 | $371.75 | +$33.12 | 50% 512-520 (1032) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Upavg 44.5¢ | $405.52 | — | -$405.52 | 56% 566-450 (1016) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Upavg 51.5¢ | $302.42 | — | -$302.42 | 36% 490-866 (1356) |
AL almach | Downavg 87.7¢ | $293.52 | $310.65 | +$25.01 | 48% 838-895 (1733) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 50.8¢ | $284.76 | $291.77 | +$7.01 | 53% 4236-3699 (7935) |
RA rabadabadooCTR | Upavg 51.4¢ | $288.92 | — | -$288.92 | 47% 943-1084 (2027) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 46.6¢ | $387.51 | $249.86 | +$53.82 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 36.8¢ | $215.11 | $584.96 | +$369.85 | 43% 706-932 (1638) |
Invested
$8,963
Value
—
PnL
$-7.1K
Record
58%
160-118 (278)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$8.4
Record
34%
17-33 (50)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$26.33
Record
46%
455-541 (996)
Invested
$3,460.2
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$39.8
Record
99%
532-3 (535)
Invested
$990.32
Value
—
PnL
-$990.09
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$897.72
Value
—
PnL
-$869.82
Record
42%
451-624 (1075)
Invested
$950
Value
$910
PnL
-$2.91
Record
51%
2178-2103 (4281)
Invested
$569.93
Value
$690.04
PnL
+$120.11
Record
46%
636-736 (1372)
Invested
$614.35
Value
—
PnL
-$590.2
Record
60%
653-441 (1094)
Invested
$485.18
Value
—
PnL
-$485.18
Record
55%
3928-3274 (7202)
Invested
$596.77
Value
$502.17
PnL
-$94.61
Record
45%
435-541 (976)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$584.84
Value
—
PnL
-$492.96
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Invested
$457.68
Value
—
PnL
-$452.16
Record
44%
486-629 (1115)
Invested
$496.33
Value
$438.57
PnL
-$57.77
Record
48%
840-911 (1751)
Invested
$525.23
Value
—
PnL
-$519.26
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$370
Value
$800
PnL
+$430
Record
50%
450-448 (898)
Invested
$338.63
Value
$371.75
PnL
+$33.12
Record
50%
512-520 (1032)
Invested
$405.52
Value
—
PnL
-$405.52
Record
56%
566-450 (1016)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$302.42
Value
—
PnL
-$302.42
Record
36%
490-866 (1356)
Invested
$293.52
Value
$310.65
PnL
+$25.01
Record
48%
838-895 (1733)
FairValueMachineInvested
$284.76
Value
$291.77
PnL
+$7.01
Record
53%
4236-3699 (7935)
Invested
$288.92
Value
—
PnL
-$288.92
Record
47%
943-1084 (2027)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$387.51
Value
$249.86
PnL
+$53.82
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
machinelearnedInvested
$215.11
Value
$584.96
PnL
+$369.85
Record
43%
706-932 (1638)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.8K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $910
CrouchPredictions
Down — $690.04
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
CTRUp — $0