Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
66
Down 58%
$14.2K
$-11.9K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 66 top traders (56%)29 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.4K | -$77.63 | 58% 160-118 (278) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 34% 17-33 (50) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 46% 455-541 (996) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 89.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$9.47 | 60% 653-441 (1094) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$931.7 | 51% 2178-2103 (4281) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $543.51 | $549 | +$5.49 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 48.4¢ | $534.86 | — | -$497.49 | 56% 2372-1839 (4211) |
BO bosona | Downavg 74.6¢ | $411.54 | $463.07 | +$51.53 | 50% 4072-4027 (8099) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 65.3¢ | $499.51 | $453.9 | -$45.6 | 42% 451-624 (1075) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 69.9¢ | $361.09 | $401.01 | +$39.92 | 53% 533-480 (1013) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 61.8¢ | $247.88 | $398.64 | +$150.76 | 45% 435-541 (976) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 71.4¢ | $304.04 | $305.2 | +$1.16 | 55% 3928-3274 (7202) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 66.7¢ | $294.29 | $267.58 | -$26.71 | 56% 566-450 (1016) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 82.3¢ | $278.41 | $246.76 | -$31.65 | 52% 4097-3832 (7929) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 66.3¢ | $217.33 | $226.81 | +$9.48 | 44% 486-629 (1115) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 65.5¢ | $189.4 | $205.74 | +$23.73 | 52% 590-538 (1128) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $224.01 | $200 | -$24.01 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 81.6¢ | $191.7 | $180.62 | -$11.08 | 50% 512-520 (1032) |
DE devonpollCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $180 | — | -$180 | 53% 314-279 (593) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 89.6¢ | $150.33 | $129.5 | -$17.88 | 62% 2642-1602 (4244) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 68¢ | $139.7 | $120 | -$19.7 | 36% 490-866 (1356) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 56.9¢ | $75.65 | $115 | +$39.35 | 44% 1316-1666 (2982) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 86.2¢ | $176.11 | $109.46 | -$66.66 | 53% 1399-1261 (2660) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Upavg 44.4¢ | $215.51 | — | -$215.51 | 51% 493-474 (967) |
Invested
$8,643
Value
$7.4K
PnL
-$77.63
Record
58%
160-118 (278)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
34%
17-33 (50)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
46%
455-541 (996)
Invested
$1,655.3
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$9.47
Record
60%
653-441 (1094)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$931.7
Record
51%
2178-2103 (4281)
Invested
$543.51
Value
$549
PnL
+$5.49
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$534.86
Value
—
PnL
-$497.49
Record
56%
2372-1839 (4211)
Invested
$411.54
Value
$463.07
PnL
+$51.53
Record
50%
4072-4027 (8099)
Invested
$499.51
Value
$453.9
PnL
-$45.6
Record
42%
451-624 (1075)
Invested
$361.09
Value
$401.01
PnL
+$39.92
Record
53%
533-480 (1013)
Invested
$247.88
Value
$398.64
PnL
+$150.76
Record
45%
435-541 (976)
Invested
$304.04
Value
$305.2
PnL
+$1.16
Record
55%
3928-3274 (7202)
Invested
$294.29
Value
$267.58
PnL
-$26.71
Record
56%
566-450 (1016)
Invested
$278.41
Value
$246.76
PnL
-$31.65
Record
52%
4097-3832 (7929)
Invested
$217.33
Value
$226.81
PnL
+$9.48
Record
44%
486-629 (1115)
Invested
$189.4
Value
$205.74
PnL
+$23.73
Record
52%
590-538 (1128)
Invested
$224.01
Value
$200
PnL
-$24.01
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
Invested
$191.7
Value
$180.62
PnL
-$11.08
Record
50%
512-520 (1032)
Invested
$180
Value
—
PnL
-$180
Record
53%
314-279 (593)
Invested
$150.33
Value
$129.5
PnL
-$17.88
Record
62%
2642-1602 (4244)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$139.7
Value
$120
PnL
-$19.7
Record
36%
490-866 (1356)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$75.65
Value
$115
PnL
+$39.35
Record
44%
1316-1666 (2982)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$176.11
Value
$109.46
PnL
-$66.66
Record
53%
1399-1261 (2660)
Invested
$215.51
Value
—
PnL
-$215.51
Record
51%
493-474 (967)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.4K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $1.7K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $549
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
bosona
Down — $463.07
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $453.9