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PolyConsensus
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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET

37 of 57 top Polymarket traders hold Down (65%) · Down at 100¢ · $30K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket
SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

57

Down 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.9K

Combined PnL

$13.07

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 100¢

+27% since entry · 37 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

  • Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
  • Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 57 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders
Total Value$16.3K
Total Shares19,399
Combined PnL-$757.1
Down37 traders
Total Value$13.4K
Total Shares13,851
Combined PnL+$770.17
Up — 35%Down — 65%
0X
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR
Up

Invested

$8,718

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$67.91

Record

57%

146-109 (255)

arcsine-barristerCTR
Up

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$6.42

Record

33%

9-18 (27)

MA
machine-earningCTR
Up

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$17.65

Record

46%

443-530 (973)

TH
THG.
Down

Invested

$2,263.87

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$11.43

Record

99%

522-3 (525)

BO
Bonereaper
Down

Invested

$2,117.03

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$141.62

Record

60%

641-430 (1071)

HO
hoodquant
Down

Invested

$832.59

Value

$846.58

PnL

+$13.99

Record

98%

2252-45 (2297)

BL
blue.birds
Down

Invested

$781.09

Value

$751.43

PnL

-$29.66

Record

52%

4060-3799 (7859)

MO
mo-money
Down

Invested

$536.11

Value

$573.23

PnL

+$37.12

Record

48%

822-890 (1712)

BO
bosona
Down

Invested

$548.33

Value

$564.69

PnL

+$16.35

Record

50%

4052-4009 (8061)

DA
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down

Invested

$479.84

Value

$555.12

PnL

+$75.28

Record

42%

441-611 (1052)

ST
stepahead
Down

Invested

$421.68

Value

$510.3

PnL

+$88.62

Record

54%

3908-3264 (7172)

BY
ByteBadger92
Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

QU
QuantumPebble673
Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

AL
almach
Down

Invested

$421.35

Value

$433.56

PnL

+$12.21

Record

48%

818-877 (1695)

HC
Hcrystallash
Down

Invested

$342.75

Value

$388.62

PnL

+$46.2

Record

58%

4542-3345 (7887)

0X
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down

Invested

$299.99

Value

$325.2

PnL

+$29

Record

56%

557-436 (993)

machinelearned
Down

Invested

$255.86

Value

$312.58

PnL

+$56.72

Record

43%

690-922 (1612)

CR
CrouchPredictionsCTR
Up

Invested

$364.54

Value

$305.47

PnL

-$59.07

Record

47%

626-720 (1346)

RE
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down

Invested

$297.57

Value

$299.06

PnL

+$1.48

Record

53%

522-468 (990)

EZ
EZTRADENL2
Down

Invested

$245.62

Value

$256.76

PnL

+$11.14

Record

50%

501-508 (1009)

WZ
wzbbb
Down

Invested

$173.08

Value

$223.25

PnL

+$50.17

Record

52%

577-528 (1105)

0X
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
Down

Invested

$200.03

Value

$222.46

PnL

+$22.43

Record

51%

481-463 (944)

38
38791873984189
Down

Invested

$208.89

Value

$209.04

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR
Up

Invested

$878

Value

$205.04

PnL

-$596.67

Record

51%

1347-1269 (2616)

Polkadot-Frog
Down

Invested

$229.19

Value

$194.01

PnL

-$35.18

Record

53%

1367-1231 (2598)

Chat

EV Calculator

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$0.09
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.

Market Info

Condition ID
0x8bf5dc29...c6bc20
Slug
btc-updown-5m-1794501300

Traders in this Market

0X

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Up — $7.1K

+$67.91

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Up — $4.7K

-$6.42
MA

machine-earning

CTR

Up — $3.7K

+$17.65
TH

THG.

Down — $2.3K

+$11.43
BO

Bonereaper

Down — $2.3K

+$141.62
HO

hoodquant

Down — $846.58

+$13.99
BL

blue.birds

Down — $751.43

-$29.66
MO

mo-money

Down — $573.23

+$37.12
BO

bosona

Down — $564.69

+$16.35
DA

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $555.12

+$75.28
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