Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
45 of 61 top Polymarket traders hold Down (74%) · Down at 100¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Down
61
Down 74%
$30.5K
$596.68
65.4¢ → 99.5¢
+52% since entry · 45 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
45 of 61 top traders (74%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $8.0K | +$108.14 | 57% 146-109 (255) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$12.88 | 33% 9-18 (27) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | +$27 | 46% 443-530 (973) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 93¢ | $3.6K | $3.9K | +$255.45 | 60% 641-430 (1071) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$13.49 | 98% 2252-45 (2297) |
AL almach | Downavg 88.1¢ | $951.99 | $999.66 | +$47.67 | 48% 818-877 (1695) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 85.8¢ | $670.79 | $679.73 | +$8.94 | 48% 822-890 (1712) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 84¢ | $590.76 | $622.19 | +$31.43 | 43% 690-922 (1612) |
BO bosona | Downavg 86.3¢ | $471.25 | $505.29 | +$34.04 | 50% 4052-4009 (8061) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 90.1¢ | $548.05 | $493.14 | -$54.91 | 47% 626-720 (1346) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 75.3¢ | $472.32 | $476.08 | +$3.75 | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 49¢ | $348.89 | $352.49 | +$3.6 | 48% 1171-1273 (2444) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 81¢ | $271.08 | $332.81 | +$61.73 | 60% 603-410 (1013) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 85.7¢ | $209.83 | $221.97 | +$12.14 | 58% 581-421 (1002) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 73.9¢ | $187.2 | $208.99 | +$21.79 | 54% 3908-3264 (7172) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 80.6¢ | $162.84 | $194.34 | +$31.5 | 36% 477-856 (1333) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 87¢ | $182.84 | $186.22 | +$8.38 | 50% 501-508 (1009) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 83.3¢ | $150 | $166.5 | +$16.5 | 60% 592-398 (990) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 85.7¢ | $248.95 | $166.08 | -$82.87 | 42% 441-611 (1052) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 94¢ | $164.77 | $166.04 | +$1.27 | 48% 456-489 (945) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 56.8¢ | $121.11 | $137.56 | +$16.45 | 53% 634-559 (1193) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 89¢ | $122.32 | $136.75 | +$14.43 | 54% 229-192 (421) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 75.3¢ | $90.84 | $106.76 | +$15.91 | 53% 522-468 (990) |
Invested
$8,595
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$108.14
Record
57%
146-109 (255)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$12.88
Record
33%
9-18 (27)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$27
Record
46%
443-530 (973)
Invested
$3,641.43
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$255.45
Record
60%
641-430 (1071)
Invested
$1,482.99
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$13.49
Record
98%
2252-45 (2297)
Invested
$951.99
Value
$999.66
PnL
+$47.67
Record
48%
818-877 (1695)
Invested
$670.79
Value
$679.73
PnL
+$8.94
Record
48%
822-890 (1712)
machinelearnedInvested
$590.76
Value
$622.19
PnL
+$31.43
Record
43%
690-922 (1612)
Invested
$471.25
Value
$505.29
PnL
+$34.04
Record
50%
4052-4009 (8061)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$548.05
Value
$493.14
PnL
-$54.91
Record
47%
626-720 (1346)
Invested
$472.32
Value
$476.08
PnL
+$3.75
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
Invested
$348.89
Value
$352.49
PnL
+$3.6
Record
48%
1171-1273 (2444)
Invested
$271.08
Value
$332.81
PnL
+$61.73
Record
60%
603-410 (1013)
Invested
$209.83
Value
$221.97
PnL
+$12.14
Record
58%
581-421 (1002)
Invested
$187.2
Value
$208.99
PnL
+$21.79
Record
54%
3908-3264 (7172)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$162.84
Value
$194.34
PnL
+$31.5
Record
36%
477-856 (1333)
Invested
$182.84
Value
$186.22
PnL
+$8.38
Record
50%
501-508 (1009)
Invested
$150
Value
$166.5
PnL
+$16.5
Record
60%
592-398 (990)
Invested
$248.95
Value
$166.08
PnL
-$82.87
Record
42%
441-611 (1052)
Invested
$164.77
Value
$166.04
PnL
+$1.27
Record
48%
456-489 (945)
Invested
$121.11
Value
$137.56
PnL
+$16.45
Record
53%
634-559 (1193)
Invested
$122.32
Value
$136.75
PnL
+$14.43
Record
54%
229-192 (421)
Invested
$90.84
Value
$106.76
PnL
+$15.91
Record
53%
522-468 (990)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.0K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
machine-earning
Down — $4.0K
Bonereaper
Down — $3.9K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
almach
Down — $999.66
mo-money
Down — $679.73
machinelearned
Down — $622.19
bosona
Down — $505.29
ByteBadger92
Down — $500