Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
57
Down 53%
6 arb excluded
$13.9K
$-15.9K
Smart Money Signal
30 of 57 top traders (53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-6.3K | 57% 146-109 (255) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 33% 9-18 (27) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.6K | +$155.02 | 46% 443-530 (973) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 63.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$32.16 | 60% 641-430 (1071) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 62.5¢ | $932.21 | — | -$909.56 | 42% 441-611 (1052) |
NO NotJumpCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.0K | — | -$950.15 | 54% 439-373 (812) |
BO bosona | Upavg 74.4¢ | $1.1K | $957.67 | -$142.4 | 50% 4052-4009 (8061) |
AL almach | Upavg 73.1¢ | $891.85 | $975.1 | +$83.25 | 48% 818-877 (1695) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 73.3¢ | $845.34 | — | -$845.34 | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 75.2¢ | $635.45 | $836.47 | +$205.62 | 48% 822-890 (1712) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 30.1¢ | $242 | $803.39 | +$561.39 | 51% 1347-1269 (2616) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 24.7¢ | $433.9 | — | -$433.9 | 47% 626-720 (1346) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 54.7¢ | $575.39 | $550.59 | -$24.8 | 54% 3908-3264 (7172) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | $550 | +$24.34 | 51% 2130-2057 (4187) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $275 | $550 | +$275 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $255.63 | — | -$250.66 | |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 57.2¢ | $525.15 | — | -$525.15 | 43% 474-618 (1092) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 80.7¢ | $322.44 | — | -$322.44 | 56% 557-436 (993) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $440.4 | $444.85 | +$4.45 | 99% 522-3 (525) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 73.1¢ | $500.22 | $443.39 | -$56.83 | 45% 426-527 (953) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 16.9¢ | $202.77 | $1.1K | +$881.95 | 43% 690-922 (1612) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Downavg 65.6¢ | $332.3 | — | -$332.3 | 50% 501-508 (1009) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Downavg 67.5¢ | $386.58 | — | -$386.58 | 53% 522-468 (990) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $237.16 | $240 | +$2.84 | 98% 2252-45 (2297) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 67.2¢ | $260.7 | — | -$260.7 | 36% 477-856 (1333) |
Invested
$8,621
Value
—
PnL
$-6.3K
Record
57%
146-109 (255)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
33%
9-18 (27)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$155.02
Record
46%
443-530 (973)
Invested
$1,293.39
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$32.16
Record
60%
641-430 (1071)
Invested
$932.21
Value
—
PnL
-$909.56
Record
42%
441-611 (1052)
Invested
$1,002.75
Value
—
PnL
-$950.15
Record
54%
439-373 (812)
Invested
$1,100.07
Value
$957.67
PnL
-$142.4
Record
50%
4052-4009 (8061)
Invested
$891.85
Value
$975.1
PnL
+$83.25
Record
48%
818-877 (1695)
Invested
$845.34
Value
—
PnL
-$845.34
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
Invested
$635.45
Value
$836.47
PnL
+$205.62
Record
48%
822-890 (1712)
Invested
$242
Value
$803.39
PnL
+$561.39
Record
51%
1347-1269 (2616)
Invested
$433.9
Value
—
PnL
-$433.9
Record
47%
626-720 (1346)
Invested
$575.39
Value
$550.59
PnL
-$24.8
Record
54%
3908-3264 (7172)
Invested
$550
Value
$550
PnL
+$24.34
Record
51%
2130-2057 (4187)
Both legs:
Invested
$525.15
Value
—
PnL
-$525.15
Record
43%
474-618 (1092)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$322.44
Value
—
PnL
-$322.44
Record
56%
557-436 (993)
Invested
$440.4
Value
$444.85
PnL
+$4.45
Record
99%
522-3 (525)
Invested
$500.22
Value
$443.39
PnL
-$56.83
Record
45%
426-527 (953)
machinelearnedInvested
$202.77
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$881.95
Record
43%
690-922 (1612)
Invested
$332.3
Value
—
PnL
-$332.3
Record
50%
501-508 (1009)
Invested
$386.58
Value
—
PnL
-$386.58
Record
53%
522-468 (990)
Invested
$237.16
Value
$240
PnL
+$2.84
Record
98%
2252-45 (2297)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$260.7
Value
—
PnL
-$260.7
Record
36%
477-856 (1333)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
Up — $3.6K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.3K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
NotJump
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $957.67
almach
Up — $975.1
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
Up — $836.47