Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
58
Up 64%
10 arb excluded
$26.9K
$-10.1K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 58 top traders (64%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 51.1¢ | $9.1K | $8.2K | -$127.73 | 57% 146-109 (255) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 33% 9-18 (27) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 46% 443-530 (973) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 79.4¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$27.93 | 60% 641-430 (1071) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$23.5 | 99% 522-3 (525) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 69.5¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$67.91 | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 57.1¢ | $994.57 | $980.13 | -$12.29 | 42% 441-611 (1052) |
NO NotJumpCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.0K | — | -$944.2 | 54% 439-373 (812) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Upavg 58.4¢ | $837.41 | $805.92 | -$31.48 | 56% 557-436 (993) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.4¢ | $470.78 | $805.92 | +$335.14 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.4¢ | $366.63 | — | -$366.63 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 85.2¢ | $659.94 | $649.34 | -$10.6 | 50% 501-508 (1009) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 67.1¢ | $595.66 | $609.66 | +$14 | 54% 3908-3264 (7172) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 53.2¢ | $583.34 | $579.28 | -$4.06 | 47% 626-720 (1346) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 61.7¢ | $646.38 | $590.85 | -$55.53 | 53% 522-468 (990) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.7¢ | $364.63 | $590.85 | +$226.22 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.6¢ | $281.76 | — | -$281.76 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 59.8¢ | $617.78 | $541.97 | +$14.58 | 43% 474-618 (1092) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 48.2¢ | $286.01 | $544.49 | +$258.48 | 48% 822-890 (1712) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | $516.23 | -$11.07 | 51% 2130-2057 (4187) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $272.5 | — | -$272.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $258.11 | $516.23 | +$261.38 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 86.2¢ | $411.67 | $461.12 | +$49.45 | 50% 480-475 (955) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 65.3¢ | $482.2 | $394.31 | -$78.99 | 53% 4224-3689 (7913) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 56.5¢ | $399.16 | $194.38 | -$204.78 | 54% 229-192 (421) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.5¢ | $338.99 | — | -$338.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31¢ | $60.17 | $194.38 | +$134.21 | |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 69.7¢ | $374.73 | $372.58 | -$2.15 | 18% 229-1011 (1240) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 60.9¢ | $326.8 | $345.31 | +$18.52 | 36% 477-856 (1333) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $352.44 | $356 | +$3.56 | 98% 2252-45 (2297) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 79.2¢ | $409.27 | $300.34 | -$108.94 | 51% 481-463 (944) |
Invested
$9,071.13
Value
$8.2K
PnL
-$127.73
Record
57%
146-109 (255)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
33%
9-18 (27)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
46%
443-530 (973)
Invested
$2,458.78
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$27.93
Record
60%
641-430 (1071)
Invested
$2,326.51
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$23.5
Record
99%
522-3 (525)
Invested
$1,768.1
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$67.91
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
Invested
$994.57
Value
$980.13
PnL
-$12.29
Record
42%
441-611 (1052)
Invested
$1,000
Value
—
PnL
-$944.2
Record
54%
439-373 (812)
Invested
$837.41
Value
$805.92
PnL
-$31.48
Record
56%
557-436 (993)
Both legs:
Invested
$659.94
Value
$649.34
PnL
-$10.6
Record
50%
501-508 (1009)
Invested
$595.66
Value
$609.66
PnL
+$14
Record
54%
3908-3264 (7172)
Invested
$583.34
Value
$579.28
PnL
-$4.06
Record
47%
626-720 (1346)
Invested
$646.38
Value
$590.85
PnL
-$55.53
Record
53%
522-468 (990)
Both legs:
Invested
$617.78
Value
$541.97
PnL
+$14.58
Record
43%
474-618 (1092)
Invested
$286.01
Value
$544.49
PnL
+$258.48
Record
48%
822-890 (1712)
Invested
$550
Value
$516.23
PnL
-$11.07
Record
51%
2130-2057 (4187)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$411.67
Value
$461.12
PnL
+$49.45
Record
50%
480-475 (955)
FairValueMachineInvested
$482.2
Value
$394.31
PnL
-$78.99
Record
53%
4224-3689 (7913)
Invested
$399.16
Value
$194.38
PnL
-$204.78
Record
54%
229-192 (421)
Both legs:
NIULAI4Invested
$374.73
Value
$372.58
PnL
-$2.15
Record
18%
229-1011 (1240)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$326.8
Value
$345.31
PnL
+$18.52
Record
36%
477-856 (1333)
Invested
$352.44
Value
$356
PnL
+$3.56
Record
98%
2252-45 (2297)
Invested
$409.27
Value
$300.34
PnL
-$108.94
Record
51%
481-463 (944)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.2K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $2.4K
THG.
Up — $2.4K
blue.birds
Up — $1.7K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $980.13
NotJump
CTRDown — $0
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
Up — $649.34