Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
63
Down 76%
1 arb excluded
$16.3K
$-16.2K
Smart Money Signal
48 of 63 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.6K | 57% 146-109 (255) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $5.8K | $5.8K | +$6.15 | 49% 883-924 (1807) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 33% 9-18 (27) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 46% 443-530 (973) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$7.83 | 47% 912-1024 (1936) |
NO NotJump | Downavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $945.83 | -$1.78 | 54% 439-373 (812) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 76¢ | $456 | $600 | +$144 | 51% 1347-1269 (2616) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 78¢ | $496.35 | $532.44 | +$36.09 | 60% 641-430 (1071) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 84.2¢ | $482.2 | $419.44 | -$62.77 | 47% 626-720 (1346) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $418.95 | $428.49 | +$9.53 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 91.7¢ | $428.3 | $421.99 | -$6.31 | 50% 501-508 (1009) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 78¢ | $412.13 | $383.55 | -$28.59 | 42% 441-611 (1052) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 79.5¢ | $411.19 | $388.94 | -$22.25 | 54% 3908-3264 (7172) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 81¢ | $279.09 | $304.52 | +$25.44 | 53% 522-468 (990) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 99.2¢ | $1.3K | $278.08 | +$52.31 | 48% 822-890 (1712) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 83.7¢ | $383.6 | $277.92 | -$9.86 | 53% 1367-1231 (2598) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 75¢ | $271.47 | $259.99 | -$11.48 | 56% 557-436 (993) |
BO bosona | Downavg 97.5¢ | $683.55 | $231.77 | -$5.36 | 50% 4052-4009 (8061) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 44.7¢ | $234.86 | — | -$234.86 | 50% 437-429 (866) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 90.3¢ | $255.83 | $195.85 | -$59.98 | 48% 456-489 (945) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 78.9¢ | $161.03 | $184.91 | +$29.38 | 52% 577-528 (1105) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 86.2¢ | $180.41 | $197.87 | +$17.46 | 50% 473-470 (943) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 76.8¢ | $165.6 | $186.93 | +$21.34 | 43% 474-618 (1092) |
Invested
$8,824
Value
—
PnL
$-7.6K
Record
57%
146-109 (255)
Invested
$5,777.51
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$6.15
Record
49%
883-924 (1807)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
33%
9-18 (27)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
46%
443-530 (973)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$1,202.53
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$7.83
Record
47%
912-1024 (1936)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$945.83
PnL
-$1.78
Record
54%
439-373 (812)
Invested
$456
Value
$600
PnL
+$144
Record
51%
1347-1269 (2616)
Invested
$496.35
Value
$532.44
PnL
+$36.09
Record
60%
641-430 (1071)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$482.2
Value
$419.44
PnL
-$62.77
Record
47%
626-720 (1346)
Invested
$418.95
Value
$428.49
PnL
+$9.53
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Invested
$428.3
Value
$421.99
PnL
-$6.31
Record
50%
501-508 (1009)
Invested
$412.13
Value
$383.55
PnL
-$28.59
Record
42%
441-611 (1052)
Invested
$411.19
Value
$388.94
PnL
-$22.25
Record
54%
3908-3264 (7172)
Invested
$279.09
Value
$304.52
PnL
+$25.44
Record
53%
522-468 (990)
Invested
$1,250.31
Value
$278.08
PnL
+$52.31
Record
48%
822-890 (1712)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$383.6
Value
$277.92
PnL
-$9.86
Record
53%
1367-1231 (2598)
Invested
$271.47
Value
$259.99
PnL
-$11.48
Record
56%
557-436 (993)
Invested
$683.55
Value
$231.77
PnL
-$5.36
Record
50%
4052-4009 (8061)
Invested
$234.86
Value
—
PnL
-$234.86
Record
50%
437-429 (866)
Invested
$255.83
Value
$195.85
PnL
-$59.98
Record
48%
456-489 (945)
Invested
$161.03
Value
$184.91
PnL
+$29.38
Record
52%
577-528 (1105)
Invested
$180.41
Value
$197.87
PnL
+$17.46
Record
50%
473-470 (943)
Invested
$165.6
Value
$186.93
PnL
+$21.34
Record
43%
474-618 (1092)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $5.8K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $1.2K
NotJump
Down — $945.83
uninformedfloww
Down — $600
Bonereaper
Down — $532.44
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
QuantumPebble673
Down — $500