Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
64
Down 39%
4 arb excluded
$29.4K
$-10.1K
Smart Money Signal
25 of 64 top traders (39%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed39 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $7.0K | +$286.99 | 57% 146-109 (255) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$329.78 | 33% 9-18 (27) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | +$39.73 | 46% 443-530 (973) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 522-3 (525) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 66.5¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$105.53 | 60% 641-430 (1071) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 69.7¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 42% 441-611 (1052) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 81.5¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 60.6¢ | $776.73 | — | -$752.68 | 47% 626-720 (1346) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.14 | 98% 2252-45 (2297) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99¢ | $990 | $1.0K | +$10 | 47% 912-1024 (1936) |
NO NotJumpCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.0K | — | -$913.41 | 54% 439-373 (812) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 60.7¢ | $469.93 | — | -$445.33 | 43% 474-618 (1092) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 72.2¢ | $557.45 | $662.77 | +$106.74 | 53% 522-468 (990) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.3¢ | $194.01 | $662.77 | +$468.71 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.2¢ | $361.97 | — | -$361.97 | |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 17.2¢ | $117.32 | $560.2 | +$442.88 | 54% 229-192 (421) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Upavg 80.9¢ | $602.75 | — | -$602.75 | 50% 501-508 (1009) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 69.4¢ | $587.76 | — | -$555.41 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | $550 | +$34.55 | 51% 2130-2057 (4187) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $252.5 | — | -$240.45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $275 | $550 | +$275 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 33.3¢ | $161.07 | $483.7 | +$322.63 | 74% 1049-366 (1415) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359CTR | Upavg 73.2¢ | $354.82 | — | -$354.82 | 50% 473-470 (943) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 82.5¢ | $710.51 | — | -$363.26 | 48% 822-890 (1712) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR | Upavg 79.6¢ | $314.66 | — | -$314.66 | 48% 456-489 (945) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 84.3¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.2K | 51% 1347-1269 (2616) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 73¢ | $427.61 | — | -$427.61 | 54% 3908-3264 (7172) |
Invested
$8,809
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$286.99
Record
57%
146-109 (255)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$329.78
Record
33%
9-18 (27)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$39.73
Record
46%
443-530 (973)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
522-3 (525)
Invested
$2,591.81
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$105.53
Record
60%
641-430 (1071)
Invested
$1,189.21
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
42%
441-611 (1052)
Invested
$1,149.68
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
Invested
$776.73
Value
—
PnL
-$752.68
Record
47%
626-720 (1346)
Invested
$1,103.09
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.14
Record
98%
2252-45 (2297)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$990
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10
Record
47%
912-1024 (1936)
Invested
$1,000
Value
—
PnL
-$913.41
Record
54%
439-373 (812)
Invested
$469.93
Value
—
PnL
-$445.33
Record
43%
474-618 (1092)
Invested
$557.45
Value
$662.77
PnL
+$106.74
Record
53%
522-468 (990)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.32
Value
$560.2
PnL
+$442.88
Record
54%
229-192 (421)
Invested
$602.75
Value
—
PnL
-$602.75
Record
50%
501-508 (1009)
Invested
$587.76
Value
—
PnL
-$555.41
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Invested
$550
Value
$550
PnL
+$34.55
Record
51%
2130-2057 (4187)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
BoneOhioInvested
$161.07
Value
$483.7
PnL
+$322.63
Record
74%
1049-366 (1415)
Invested
$354.82
Value
—
PnL
-$354.82
Record
50%
473-470 (943)
Invested
$710.51
Value
—
PnL
-$363.26
Record
48%
822-890 (1712)
Invested
$314.66
Value
—
PnL
-$314.66
Record
48%
456-489 (945)
Invested
$1,286.14
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
51%
1347-1269 (2616)
Invested
$427.61
Value
—
PnL
-$427.61
Record
54%
3908-3264 (7172)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.0K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
machine-earning
Down — $3.7K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.7K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $1.0K