Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.6K

Combined PnL

$-7.2K

Smart Money Signal

52 of 61 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,717

Combined PnL$-8.8K

Up52 traders

Total Value$25.6K

Total Shares25,571

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Down — 15%Up — 85%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	—	$-7.5K	57% 146-109 (255)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$12.6	33% 9-18 (27)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	+$97.88	46% 443-530 (973)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$3.01	49% 883-924 (1807)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$20.58	74% 1049-366 (1415)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 93.4¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$24.72	60% 641-430 (1071)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.7¢	$965.33	$978.29	+$12.96	98% 2252-45 (2297)
NO NotJumpCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.0K	—	-$961.6	54% 439-373 (812)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 49¢	$587.97	$1.2K	+$611.96	50% 437-429 (866)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 61.3¢	$402.07	$576.43	+$192.76	51% 1347-1269 (2616)
09 0x0970...e369	Upavg 50¢	$550	$550	+$0	51% 2130-2057 (4187)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 61.8¢	$361.55	$458.7	+$97.15	48% 456-489 (945)
AL almach	Upavg 98¢	$425.48	$430	+$4.52	48% 818-877 (1695)
ST stepahead	Upavg 67.5¢	$354.3	$390.11	+$35.81	54% 3908-3264 (7172)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 67.8¢	$278	$342.22	+$64.23	47% 626-720 (1346)
BO bosona	Upavg 94.2¢	$335.15	$355.11	+$19.96	50% 4052-4009 (8061)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 96.5¢	$295.59	$283.1	-$12.48	50% 501-508 (1009)
MO mo-money	Upavg 99¢	$263.86	$259.84	-$4.02	48% 822-890 (1712)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 87.2¢	$235.95	$250.61	+$14.65	51% 1806-1756 (3562)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 74.3¢	$230.39	$245.75	+$15.36	52% 4060-3799 (7859)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 82.2¢	$249.61	$219.76	-$29.85	42% 441-611 (1052)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 79.6¢	$163.35	$202.5	+$39.15	36% 477-856 (1333)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 93.3¢	$181.13	$188.22	+$7.09	66% 2224-1129 (3353)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,670

Value

—

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

57%

146-109 (255)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$12.6

Record

33%

9-18 (27)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$97.88

Record

46%

443-530 (973)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,005

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$3.01

Record

49%

883-924 (1807)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,037.08

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20.58

Record

74%

1049-366 (1415)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,443.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$24.72

Record

60%

641-430 (1071)

hoodquant

Invested

$965.33

Value

$978.29

PnL

+$12.96

Record

98%

2252-45 (2297)

NotJumpCTR

Down

Invested

$1,000

Value

—

PnL

-$961.6

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

PBot-6

Invested

$587.97

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$611.96

Record

50%

437-429 (866)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$402.07

Value

$576.43

PnL

+$192.76

Record

51%

1347-1269 (2616)

0x0970...e369

Invested

$550

Value

$550

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2130-2057 (4187)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$361.55

Value

$458.7

PnL

+$97.15

Record

48%

456-489 (945)

almach

Invested

$425.48

Value

$430

PnL

+$4.52

Record

48%

818-877 (1695)

stepahead

Invested

$354.3

Value

$390.11

PnL

+$35.81

Record

54%

3908-3264 (7172)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$278

Value

$342.22

PnL

+$64.23

Record

47%

626-720 (1346)

bosona

Invested

$335.15

Value

$355.11

PnL

+$19.96

Record

50%

4052-4009 (8061)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$295.59

Value

$283.1

PnL

-$12.48

Record

50%

501-508 (1009)

mo-money

Invested

$263.86

Value

$259.84

PnL

-$4.02

Record

48%

822-890 (1712)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$235.95

Value

$250.61

PnL

+$14.65

Record

51%

1806-1756 (3562)

blue.birds

Invested

$230.39

Value

$245.75

PnL

+$15.36

Record

52%

4060-3799 (7859)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$249.61

Value

$219.76

PnL

-$29.85

Record

42%

441-611 (1052)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$163.35

Value

$202.5

PnL

+$39.15

Record

36%

477-856 (1333)

asdaefef

Invested

$181.13

Value

$188.22

PnL

+$7.09

Record

66%

2224-1129 (3353)

Smart Money Signal

52 of 61 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x83069956...609ac7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794499500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-7.5K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$12.6

machine-earning

Up — $3.9K

+$97.88

0x50f7

Up — $3.0K

+$3.01

BoneOhio

Up — $2.1K

+$20.58

Bonereaper

Up — $1.5K

+$24.72

hoodquant

Up — $978.29

+$12.96

NotJump

CTR

Down — $0

-$961.6

PBot-6

Up — $1.2K

+$611.96

uninformedfloww

Up — $576.43

+$192.76

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