Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

19 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.2K

Combined PnL

$-13.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 46 top traders (59%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down27 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares17,399

Combined PnL$-15.0K

Up19 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,214

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 49.8¢	$9.0K	—	$-7.5K	57% 146-109 (255)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$8.38	33% 9-18 (27)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$0.71	46% 443-530 (973)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.9K	$3.8K	+$1.9K
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 57.7¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.1K	52% 4060-3799 (7859)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 37.6¢	$911.49	—	-$911.49	47% 626-720 (1346)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 66.6¢	$929.77	—	-$928.17	60% 641-430 (1071)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 30.4¢	$774.45	—	-$370.93	51% 1347-1269 (2616)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 65¢	$835.46	—	-$830.96	42% 441-611 (1052)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$790.48	$819.32	+$28.84	51% 1806-1756 (3562)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.2¢	$542.72	—	-$542.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$247.76	$819.32	+$571.55
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Downavg 64.2¢	$598.46	—	-$598.46	50% 501-508 (1009)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Downavg 69¢	$748.85	—	-$748.85	53% 522-468 (990)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 58.6¢	$590.2	—	-$545.17	43% 474-618 (1092)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 85.4¢	$668	$330.51	-$337.49	48% 822-890 (1712)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.4¢	$549.51	—	-$549.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.9¢	$118.49	$330.51	+$212.02
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 57¢	$438.13	$557.61	+$119.48	53% 4224-3689 (7913)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.2¢	$207.34	$557.61	+$350.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$230.8	—	-$230.8
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 39.3¢	$347.55	$457.62	+$113.39	56% 557-436 (993)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 54.9¢	$205.8	$359.61	+$153.81	45% 426-527 (953)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$340.76	$329.89	-$10.87	36% 477-856 (1333)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.9¢	$131.62	$329.89	+$198.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.8¢	$209.14	—	-$209.14
GA gansinimenCTR	Downavg 52.4¢	$334.94	—	-$281.74	54% 229-192 (421)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Upavg 70.2¢	$381.01	$365.51	-$15.5	48% 456-489 (945)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.2¢	$256.71	$365.51	+$108.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.8¢	$124.3	—	-$124.3
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 62.3¢	$276.36	$278.44	+$2.08	49% 464-475 (939)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$341.65	$256.05	-$85.6	48% 818-877 (1695)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.5¢	$98.63	$256.05	+$157.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$243.02	—	-$243.02
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$292.95	$288.55	-$4.4	54% 3908-3264 (7172)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.5¢	$108.29	$288.55	+$180.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.1¢	$184.66	—	-$184.66
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 87.5¢	$390.63	$295.6	-$95.04	43% 690-922 (1612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.5¢	$224.51	—	-$224.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.2¢	$166.12	$295.6	+$129.47

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,979.23

Value

—

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

57%

146-109 (255)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$8.38

Record

33%

9-18 (27)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$0.71

Record

46%

443-530 (973)

Both legs:

Down$1,902.9550¢$-1.9K

Up$1,901.1150¢+$1.9K

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,169.75

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

4060-3799 (7859)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$911.49

Value

—

PnL

-$911.49

Record

47%

626-720 (1346)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$929.77

Value

—

PnL

-$928.17

Record

60%

641-430 (1071)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$774.45

Value

—

PnL

-$370.93

Record

51%

1347-1269 (2616)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$835.46

Value

—

PnL

-$830.96

Record

42%

441-611 (1052)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$790.48

Value

$819.32

PnL

+$28.84

Record

51%

1806-1756 (3562)

Both legs:

Down$542.7269.2¢-$542.72

Up$247.7630.2¢+$571.55

EZTRADENL2CTR

Down

Invested

$598.46

Value

—

PnL

-$598.46

Record

50%

501-508 (1009)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Down

Invested

$748.85

Value

—

PnL

-$748.85

Record

53%

522-468 (990)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$590.2

Value

—

PnL

-$545.17

Record

43%

474-618 (1092)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$668

Value

$330.51

PnL

-$337.49

Record

48%

822-890 (1712)

Both legs:

Down$549.5185.4¢-$549.51

Up$118.4935.9¢+$212.02

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$438.13

Value

$557.61

PnL

+$119.48

Record

53%

4224-3689 (7913)

Both legs:

Up$207.3437.2¢+$350.28

Down$230.857¢-$230.8

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$347.55

Value

$457.62

PnL

+$113.39

Record

56%

557-436 (993)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$205.8

Value

$359.61

PnL

+$153.81

Record

45%

426-527 (953)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$340.76

Value

$329.89

PnL

-$10.87

Record

36%

477-856 (1333)

Both legs:

Up$131.6239.9¢+$198.28

Down$209.1453.8¢-$209.14

gansinimenCTR

Down

Invested

$334.94

Value

—

PnL

-$281.74

Record

54%

229-192 (421)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Invested

$381.01

Value

$365.51

PnL

-$15.5

Record

48%

456-489 (945)

Both legs:

Up$256.7170.2¢+$108.8

Down$124.376.8¢-$124.3

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$276.36

Value

$278.44

PnL

+$2.08

Record

49%

464-475 (939)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$341.65

Value

$256.05

PnL

-$85.6

Record

48%

818-877 (1695)

Both legs:

Up$98.6338.5¢+$157.42

Down$243.0276.3¢-$243.02

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$292.95

Value

$288.55

PnL

-$4.4

Record

54%

3908-3264 (7172)

Both legs:

Up$108.2937.5¢+$180.26

Down$184.6672.1¢-$184.66

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$390.63

Value

$295.6

PnL

-$95.04

Record

43%

690-922 (1612)

Both legs:

Down$224.5187.5¢-$224.51

Up$166.1256.2¢+$129.47

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 46 top traders (59%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcae24973...08f6ad

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794499200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-7.5K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.9K

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Down — $0

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

Bonereaper

Down — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Down — $0

-$830.96

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Down — $0