Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
55
Up 45%
4 arb excluded
$8.3K
$-16.3K
Smart Money Signal
25 of 55 top traders (45%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.5K | 57% 146-109 (255) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 33% 9-18 (27) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 46% 443-530 (973) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 48.8¢ | $469.9 | $963.38 | +$493.48 | 51% 1347-1269 (2616) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 66.2¢ | $821.26 | $858.12 | +$55.67 | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 69.4¢ | $913.37 | $775.22 | -$136.88 | 60% 641-430 (1071) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 75.9¢ | $592.27 | $529.53 | -$62.74 | 54% 3908-3264 (7172) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 33.7¢ | $653.42 | — | -$653.42 | 42% 441-611 (1052) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 67.6¢ | $342.7 | $339.01 | -$3.69 | 43% 474-618 (1092) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 72.7¢ | $339.71 | $308.51 | -$31.2 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 69.3¢ | $294.13 | $301.87 | +$7.75 | 52% 577-528 (1105) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 72.6¢ | $251.28 | $304.4 | +$53.12 | 36% 477-856 (1333) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 76.5¢ | $236.15 | $296.23 | +$60.08 | 53% 4224-3689 (7913) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 92.3¢ | $262.41 | $270.99 | +$8.57 | 50% 501-508 (1009) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 74.7¢ | $269.53 | $266.66 | -$2.87 | 53% 522-468 (990) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 84.8¢ | $251.81 | $213.56 | -$37.25 | 53% 1367-1231 (2598) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 78.7¢ | $153.67 | $195 | +$41.33 | 43% 690-922 (1612) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 94.8¢ | $172.07 | $174 | +$1.93 | 50% 473-470 (943) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 68.8¢ | $178.44 | $161.23 | -$17.21 | 56% 557-436 (993) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 70.2¢ | $183.53 | $187.84 | +$46.28 | 60% 603-410 (1013) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $124.53 | $149.34 | +$36.17 | 48% 748-800 (1548) |
RA rabadabadoo | Downavg 62.1¢ | $151.98 | $145.01 | -$6.97 | 47% 926-1058 (1984) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $93.87 | $160.37 | +$66.5 | 48% 456-489 (945) |
Invested
$8,779
Value
—
PnL
$-7.5K
Record
57%
146-109 (255)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
33%
9-18 (27)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
46%
443-530 (973)
Invested
$469.9
Value
$963.38
PnL
+$493.48
Record
51%
1347-1269 (2616)
Invested
$821.26
Value
$858.12
PnL
+$55.67
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
Invested
$913.37
Value
$775.22
PnL
-$136.88
Record
60%
641-430 (1071)
Invested
$592.27
Value
$529.53
PnL
-$62.74
Record
54%
3908-3264 (7172)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$653.42
Value
—
PnL
-$653.42
Record
42%
441-611 (1052)
Invested
$342.7
Value
$339.01
PnL
-$3.69
Record
43%
474-618 (1092)
Invested
$339.71
Value
$308.51
PnL
-$31.2
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Invested
$294.13
Value
$301.87
PnL
+$7.75
Record
52%
577-528 (1105)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$251.28
Value
$304.4
PnL
+$53.12
Record
36%
477-856 (1333)
FairValueMachineInvested
$236.15
Value
$296.23
PnL
+$60.08
Record
53%
4224-3689 (7913)
Invested
$262.41
Value
$270.99
PnL
+$8.57
Record
50%
501-508 (1009)
Invested
$269.53
Value
$266.66
PnL
-$2.87
Record
53%
522-468 (990)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$251.81
Value
$213.56
PnL
-$37.25
Record
53%
1367-1231 (2598)
machinelearnedInvested
$153.67
Value
$195
PnL
+$41.33
Record
43%
690-922 (1612)
Invested
$172.07
Value
$174
PnL
+$1.93
Record
50%
473-470 (943)
Invested
$178.44
Value
$161.23
PnL
-$17.21
Record
56%
557-436 (993)
Invested
$183.53
Value
$187.84
PnL
+$46.28
Record
60%
603-410 (1013)
Invested
$124.53
Value
$149.34
PnL
+$36.17
Record
48%
748-800 (1548)
Invested
$151.98
Value
$145.01
PnL
-$6.97
Record
47%
926-1058 (1984)
Invested
$93.87
Value
$160.37
PnL
+$66.5
Record
48%
456-489 (945)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $963.38
blue.birds
Down — $858.12
Bonereaper
Down — $775.22
stepahead
Down — $529.53
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
QuantumPebble673
Down — $500
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0