Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
71
Down 58%
$26.2K
$-2.9K
Smart Money Signal
41 of 71 top traders (58%)30 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.4K | +$69.62 | 57% 146-109 (255) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$1.65 | 33% 9-18 (27) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.6K | +$96.55 | 46% 443-530 (973) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 59¢ | $1.0K | $980.82 | -$54.97 | 60% 641-430 (1071) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 69.7¢ | $836.63 | $812.56 | -$24.06 | 52% 4060-3799 (7859) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $722.22 | $731.99 | +$9.77 | 98% 2252-45 (2297) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $671.1 | $677.88 | +$6.78 | 48% 1171-1273 (2444) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | $550 | +$1.95 | 51% 2130-2057 (4187) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 39.2¢ | $611.26 | — | -$611.26 | 42% 441-611 (1052) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 77.3¢ | $463.04 | $479.9 | +$16.86 | 54% 3908-3264 (7172) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 72.9¢ | $525.64 | $444.73 | -$80.91 | 47% 626-720 (1346) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 88.6¢ | $450.91 | $436.89 | -$14.02 | 50% 501-508 (1009) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 49¢ | $205.43 | $419.36 | +$213.93 | 50% 437-429 (866) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $215.4 | $362.21 | +$146.81 | 48% 748-800 (1548) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 52.6¢ | $323.3 | $333.79 | +$10.49 | 43% 474-618 (1092) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 40.2¢ | $345.06 | — | -$345.06 | 52% 577-528 (1105) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 64.6¢ | $276.18 | $258.59 | -$17.59 | 53% 4224-3689 (7913) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 52.8¢ | $198.11 | $227.31 | +$29.19 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $122.33 | $223.35 | +$101.02 | 50% 473-470 (943) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 65.1¢ | $216.71 | $207.15 | -$9.57 | 36% 477-856 (1333) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 73.4¢ | $240.64 | $198.73 | -$41.91 | 56% 557-436 (993) |
BO bosona | Downavg 81.4¢ | $157.11 | $192.28 | +$35.17 | 50% 4052-4009 (8061) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 65.7¢ | $138.29 | $187.47 | +$49.17 | 43% 690-922 (1612) |
Invested
$8,869
Value
$8.4K
PnL
+$69.62
Record
57%
146-109 (255)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$1.65
Record
33%
9-18 (27)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$96.55
Record
46%
443-530 (973)
Invested
$1,035.8
Value
$980.82
PnL
-$54.97
Record
60%
641-430 (1071)
Invested
$836.63
Value
$812.56
PnL
-$24.06
Record
52%
4060-3799 (7859)
Invested
$722.22
Value
$731.99
PnL
+$9.77
Record
98%
2252-45 (2297)
Invested
$671.1
Value
$677.88
PnL
+$6.78
Record
48%
1171-1273 (2444)
Invested
$550
Value
$550
PnL
+$1.95
Record
51%
2130-2057 (4187)
Invested
$611.26
Value
—
PnL
-$611.26
Record
42%
441-611 (1052)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$463.04
Value
$479.9
PnL
+$16.86
Record
54%
3908-3264 (7172)
Invested
$525.64
Value
$444.73
PnL
-$80.91
Record
47%
626-720 (1346)
Invested
$450.91
Value
$436.89
PnL
-$14.02
Record
50%
501-508 (1009)
Invested
$205.43
Value
$419.36
PnL
+$213.93
Record
50%
437-429 (866)
Invested
$215.4
Value
$362.21
PnL
+$146.81
Record
48%
748-800 (1548)
Invested
$323.3
Value
$333.79
PnL
+$10.49
Record
43%
474-618 (1092)
Invested
$345.06
Value
—
PnL
-$345.06
Record
52%
577-528 (1105)
FairValueMachineInvested
$276.18
Value
$258.59
PnL
-$17.59
Record
53%
4224-3689 (7913)
Invested
$198.11
Value
$227.31
PnL
+$29.19
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
Invested
$122.33
Value
$223.35
PnL
+$101.02
Record
50%
473-470 (943)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$216.71
Value
$207.15
PnL
-$9.57
Record
36%
477-856 (1333)
Invested
$240.64
Value
$198.73
PnL
-$41.91
Record
56%
557-436 (993)
Invested
$157.11
Value
$192.28
PnL
+$35.17
Record
50%
4052-4009 (8061)
machinelearnedInvested
$138.29
Value
$187.47
PnL
+$49.17
Record
43%
690-922 (1612)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.4K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.6K
Bonereaper
Down — $980.82
blue.birds
Down — $812.56
hoodquant
Down — $731.99
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $677.88
soswald1
Down — $550
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0