Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
62
Down 71%
1 arb excluded
$26.2K
$-10.4K
Smart Money Signal
44 of 62 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.2K | +$171.16 | 56% 129-102 (231) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | — 0-2 (2) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 46% 432-516 (948) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 507-3 (510) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.08 | 49% 860-907 (1767) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 91.1¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$118.11 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 80.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.9K | +$381.04 | 60% 623-421 (1044) |
BO bosona | Downavg 97.3¢ | $971.69 | $978.41 | +$6.73 | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | $550 | +$5 | 51% 2068-2013 (4081) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 57.6¢ | $614.42 | $531.67 | -$72.89 | 46% 610-705 (1315) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 65.1¢ | $442.12 | $414.56 | -$27.56 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 65.7¢ | $319.48 | $413.31 | +$93.83 | 49% 727-769 (1496) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 67.5¢ | $430.44 | $379.92 | -$31.72 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
AL almach | Downavg 98.1¢ | $322.83 | $303.75 | -$19.08 | 48% 784-859 (1643) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 58.4¢ | $194.4 | $295.76 | +$109.65 | 52% 563-518 (1081) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 39.4¢ | $375.25 | — | -$365.95 | 42% 429-598 (1027) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 53.5¢ | $275.61 | $272.18 | +$3.62 | 43% 458-609 (1067) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 59.8¢ | $307.64 | $259.65 | -$47.98 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 62.8¢ | $305.41 | $247.28 | -$58.13 | 50% 459-460 (919) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 62.3¢ | $215.76 | $197.51 | -$18.25 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 58.7¢ | $142.93 | $193.13 | +$68.43 | 53% 4211-3679 (7890) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 49.5¢ | $186.44 | $186.01 | +$1.7 | 56% 543-425 (968) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 73.2¢ | $130.98 | $179 | +$48.02 | 45% 416-512 (928) |
Invested
$8,807
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$171.16
Record
56%
129-102 (231)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
46%
432-516 (948)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
507-3 (510)
Invested
$2,977.93
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.08
Record
49%
860-907 (1767)
Invested
$2,253.72
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$118.11
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$1,545.15
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$381.04
Record
60%
623-421 (1044)
Invested
$971.69
Value
$978.41
PnL
+$6.73
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
Invested
$550
Value
$550
PnL
+$5
Record
51%
2068-2013 (4081)
Invested
$614.42
Value
$531.67
PnL
-$72.89
Record
46%
610-705 (1315)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$442.12
Value
$414.56
PnL
-$27.56
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Invested
$319.48
Value
$413.31
PnL
+$93.83
Record
49%
727-769 (1496)
Invested
$430.44
Value
$379.92
PnL
-$31.72
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$322.83
Value
$303.75
PnL
-$19.08
Record
48%
784-859 (1643)
Invested
$194.4
Value
$295.76
PnL
+$109.65
Record
52%
563-518 (1081)
Invested
$375.25
Value
—
PnL
-$365.95
Record
42%
429-598 (1027)
Invested
$275.61
Value
$272.18
PnL
+$3.62
Record
43%
458-609 (1067)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$307.64
Value
$259.65
PnL
-$47.98
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$305.41
Value
$247.28
PnL
-$58.13
Record
50%
459-460 (919)
Invested
$215.76
Value
$197.51
PnL
-$18.25
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
FairValueMachineInvested
$142.93
Value
$193.13
PnL
+$68.43
Record
53%
4211-3679 (7890)
Invested
$186.44
Value
$186.01
PnL
+$1.7
Record
56%
543-425 (968)
Invested
$130.98
Value
$179
PnL
+$48.02
Record
45%
416-512 (928)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.2K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.4K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.9K
bosona
Down — $978.41
soswald1
Down — $550
CrouchPredictions
Down — $531.67