Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 81%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.2K

Combined PnL

$-8.6K

Smart Money Signal

50 of 62 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares12,529

Combined PnL$-8.6K

Up50 traders

Total Value$22.1K

Total Shares22,093

Combined PnL+$80.12

Down — 19%Up — 81%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	—	$-8.0K	56% 129-102 (231)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$16.66	— 0-2 (2)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$7.47	46% 432-516 (948)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 507-3 (510)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 93.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$83.47	60% 623-421 (1044)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$972.18	$982	+$9.82	98% 2209-44 (2253)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 95.8¢	$917.58	$892.15	-$25.43	51% 1741-1694 (3435)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 93.6¢	$679.63	$694.58	+$14.95	49% 486-498 (984)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 90.4¢	$705.12	$640.9	+$0.99	52% 4022-3759 (7781)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 96.2¢	$530.87	$434.1	-$96.77	46% 610-705 (1315)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 95.9¢	$333.02	$328.72	-$4.04	67% 2180-1089 (3269)
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 48¢	$265.62	—	-$265.62	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 82.7¢	$298.27	$264.43	-$33.84	42% 429-598 (1027)
PB PBot-5	Upavg 65.7¢	$161	$245	+$84	49% 727-769 (1496)
BO bosona	Upavg 84¢	$223.06	$219.7	-$3.36	50% 4018-3992 (8010)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 94.4¢	$224.07	$237.34	+$13.27	49% 446-468 (914)
ST stepahead	Upavg 80.8¢	$215.78	$209.54	-$6.24	55% 3891-3247 (7138)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 79.6¢	$192.54	$163.42	-$29.11	53% 509-456 (965)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 44.6¢	$163.47	—	-$163.47	48% 1139-1229 (2368)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 77.9¢	$253.07	$140	-$26.79	53% 1336-1195 (2531)
AL almach	Upavg 93¢	$431.51	$123.07	-$1.59	48% 784-859 (1643)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100	Upavg 59¢	$136.46	$149.93	+$13.47	50% 459-460 (919)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$88.46	$149.93	+$61.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 48¢	$48	—	-$48
MO mo-money	Upavg 87.3¢	$126.44	$115.99	-$10.45	47% 787-874 (1661)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,699

Value

—

PnL

$-8.0K

Record

56%

129-102 (231)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$16.66

Record

—

0-2 (2)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$7.47

Record

46%

432-516 (948)

THG.

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

507-3 (510)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,751.1

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$83.47

Record

60%

623-421 (1044)

hoodquant

Invested

$972.18

Value

$982

PnL

+$9.82

Record

98%

2209-44 (2253)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$917.58

Value

$892.15

PnL

-$25.43

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$679.63

Value

$694.58

PnL

+$14.95

Record

49%

486-498 (984)

blue.birds

Invested

$705.12

Value

$640.9

PnL

+$0.99

Record

52%

4022-3759 (7781)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$530.87

Value

$434.1

PnL

-$96.77

Record

46%

610-705 (1315)

asdaefef

Invested

$333.02

Value

$328.72

PnL

-$4.04

Record

67%

2180-1089 (3269)

38791873984189CTR

Down

Invested

$265.62

Value

—

PnL

-$265.62

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$298.27

Value

$264.43

PnL

-$33.84

Record

42%

429-598 (1027)

PBot-5

Invested

$161

Value

$245

PnL

+$84

Record

49%

727-769 (1496)

bosona

Invested

$223.06

Value

$219.7

PnL

-$3.36

Record

50%

4018-3992 (8010)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$224.07

Value

$237.34

PnL

+$13.27

Record

49%

446-468 (914)

stepahead

Invested

$215.78

Value

$209.54

PnL

-$6.24

Record

55%

3891-3247 (7138)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$192.54

Value

$163.42

PnL

-$29.11

Record

53%

509-456 (965)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$163.47

Value

—

PnL

-$163.47

Record

48%

1139-1229 (2368)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$253.07

Value

$140

PnL

-$26.79

Record

53%

1336-1195 (2531)

almach

Invested

$431.51

Value

$123.07

PnL

-$1.59

Record

48%

784-859 (1643)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100

Invested

$136.46

Value

$149.93

PnL

+$13.47

Record

50%

459-460 (919)

Both legs:

Up$88.4659¢+$61.47

Down$4848¢-$48

mo-money

Invested

$126.44

Value

$115.99

PnL

-$10.45

Record

47%

787-874 (1661)

Smart Money Signal

50 of 62 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8d040f56...e334f5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794494100

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-8.0K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$16.66

machine-earning

Up — $3.9K

-$7.47

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$35

Bonereaper

Up — $1.8K

+$83.47

hoodquant

Up — $982

+$9.82

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $892.15

-$25.43

EZTRADENL2

Up — $694.58

+$14.95

blue.birds

Up — $640.9

+$0.99

ByteBadger92

Up — $500

+$0

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