Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Up 72%
6 arb excluded
$19.5K
$-15.1K
Smart Money Signal
43 of 59 top traders (73%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.6K | 56% 129-102 (231) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | — 0-2 (2) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 507-3 (510) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.5K | 46% 432-516 (948) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 79.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$183.75 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 83.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$42.34 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 77.8¢ | $996.77 | $1.0K | +$29.16 | 42% 429-598 (1027) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $645.89 | $1.0K | +$363.51 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 91.7¢ | $740.55 | $745.07 | +$6.25 | 49% 486-498 (984) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 73¢ | $637.53 | $654.73 | +$22.86 | 60% 623-421 (1044) |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $611.54 | $1.0K | +$435.64 | 51% 422-410 (832) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Upavg 61.3¢ | $502.6 | $619.5 | +$116.9 | 49% 446-468 (914) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.3¢ | $379.95 | $619.5 | +$239.55 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.4¢ | $122.65 | — | -$122.65 | |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 89.8¢ | $498.35 | $542.1 | +$43.75 | 50% 459-460 (919) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 77.7¢ | $442.99 | $450.45 | +$7.46 | 45% 416-512 (928) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 71.3¢ | $486.49 | $474.93 | -$3.86 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 71.6¢ | $441.92 | $575.44 | +$133.52 | 50% 464-455 (919) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 76.5¢ | $432 | $429.39 | -$2.61 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 74.4¢ | $465.84 | $441.57 | -$24.28 | 42% 672-911 (1583) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 73.2¢ | $418.47 | $315 | -$103.47 | 46% 610-705 (1315) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73.2¢ | $230.43 | $315 | +$84.57 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27¢ | $188.04 | — | -$188.04 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 74.3¢ | $415.72 | $506.98 | +$91.25 | 51% 481-466 (947) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 76.5¢ | $303.48 | $285.85 | +$16.27 | 43% 458-609 (1067) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 37.4¢ | $302.17 | $209.43 | -$92.74 | 50% 467-464 (931) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.1¢ | $140.5 | $209.43 | +$68.92 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.4¢ | $161.66 | — | -$161.66 | |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 63.8¢ | $189.85 | $276.17 | +$98.22 | 49% 727-769 (1496) |
Invested
$8,799.37
Value
—
PnL
$-7.6K
Record
56%
129-102 (231)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
507-3 (510)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.5K
Record
46%
432-516 (948)
Invested
$1,710.46
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$183.75
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$1,066.94
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$42.34
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$996.77
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$29.16
Record
42%
429-598 (1027)
Invested
$645.89
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$363.51
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$740.55
Value
$745.07
PnL
+$6.25
Record
49%
486-498 (984)
Invested
$637.53
Value
$654.73
PnL
+$22.86
Record
60%
623-421 (1044)
Invested
$611.54
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$435.64
Record
51%
422-410 (832)
Invested
$502.6
Value
$619.5
PnL
+$116.9
Record
49%
446-468 (914)
Both legs:
Invested
$498.35
Value
$542.1
PnL
+$43.75
Record
50%
459-460 (919)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$442.99
Value
$450.45
PnL
+$7.46
Record
45%
416-512 (928)
Invested
$486.49
Value
$474.93
PnL
-$3.86
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
Invested
$441.92
Value
$575.44
PnL
+$133.52
Record
50%
464-455 (919)
Invested
$432
Value
$429.39
PnL
-$2.61
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
machinelearnedInvested
$465.84
Value
$441.57
PnL
-$24.28
Record
42%
672-911 (1583)
Invested
$418.47
Value
$315
PnL
-$103.47
Record
46%
610-705 (1315)
Both legs:
Invested
$415.72
Value
$506.98
PnL
+$91.25
Record
51%
481-466 (947)
Invested
$303.48
Value
$285.85
PnL
+$16.27
Record
43%
458-609 (1067)
Invested
$302.17
Value
$209.43
PnL
-$92.74
Record
50%
467-464 (931)
Both legs:
Invested
$189.85
Value
$276.17
PnL
+$98.22
Record
49%
727-769 (1496)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.5K
blue.birds
Up — $1.1K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.0K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $1.0K
EZTRADENL2
Up — $745.07
Bonereaper
Up — $654.73