Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
66
Down 70%
3 arb excluded
$22.7K
$-12.2K
Smart Money Signal
46 of 66 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.1K | 56% 129-102 (231) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.3K | — 0-2 (2) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.1K | -$221.87 | 46% 432-516 (948) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.6K | $3.1K | +$1.7K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.08 | 49% 860-907 (1767) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 55.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.9K | +$820.33 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 70.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$87.2 | 60% 623-421 (1044) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$17.46 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 58.4¢ | $967.71 | $1.0K | +$64.29 | 42% 429-598 (1027) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 58.6¢ | $823.14 | $984.54 | +$161.4 | 46% 610-705 (1315) |
BO bosona | Downavg 48¢ | $437.92 | $816.52 | +$378.61 | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 65.1¢ | $684.16 | $676.27 | -$7.88 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.1¢ | $440.49 | $676.27 | +$235.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.2¢ | $243.67 | — | -$243.67 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 61.7¢ | $673.69 | $712.51 | +$38.81 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 52.1¢ | $583.29 | — | -$583.29 | 51% 422-410 (832) |
AL almach | Downavg 46.4¢ | $325.7 | $680.15 | +$354.45 | 48% 784-859 (1643) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 46.9¢ | $852.86 | $524.32 | +$507.38 | 47% 787-874 (1661) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$501.67 | 51% 2068-2013 (4081) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 45.3¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 58¢ | $402.97 | $446.48 | +$44.41 | 43% 458-609 (1067) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 63.7¢ | $431.27 | $413.34 | -$7.93 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 74.7¢ | $325.97 | $379.72 | +$53.75 | 58% 568-409 (977) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 75.9¢ | $427.96 | $372.45 | -$55.51 | 56% 543-425 (968) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 59.9¢ | $292.72 | $351.03 | +$58.31 | 42% 672-911 (1583) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 64.5¢ | $267.43 | $341.85 | +$77.7 | 53% 509-456 (965) |
Invested
$8,577
Value
—
PnL
$-7.1K
Record
56%
129-102 (231)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.3K
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$221.87
Record
46%
432-516 (948)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,977.93
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.08
Record
49%
860-907 (1767)
Invested
$1,031.33
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$820.33
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$1,579.48
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$87.2
Record
60%
623-421 (1044)
Invested
$1,303.02
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$17.46
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$967.71
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$64.29
Record
42%
429-598 (1027)
Invested
$823.14
Value
$984.54
PnL
+$161.4
Record
46%
610-705 (1315)
Invested
$437.92
Value
$816.52
PnL
+$378.61
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
Invested
$684.16
Value
$676.27
PnL
-$7.88
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Both legs:
Invested
$673.69
Value
$712.51
PnL
+$38.81
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
Invested
$583.29
Value
—
PnL
-$583.29
Record
51%
422-410 (832)
Invested
$325.7
Value
$680.15
PnL
+$354.45
Record
48%
784-859 (1643)
Invested
$852.86
Value
$524.32
PnL
+$507.38
Record
47%
787-874 (1661)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$501.67
Record
51%
2068-2013 (4081)
Invested
$1,197.58
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$402.97
Value
$446.48
PnL
+$44.41
Record
43%
458-609 (1067)
Invested
$431.27
Value
$413.34
PnL
-$7.93
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Invested
$325.97
Value
$379.72
PnL
+$53.75
Record
58%
568-409 (977)
Invested
$427.96
Value
$372.45
PnL
-$55.51
Record
56%
543-425 (968)
machinelearnedInvested
$292.72
Value
$351.03
PnL
+$58.31
Record
42%
672-911 (1583)
Invested
$267.43
Value
$341.85
PnL
+$77.7
Record
53%
509-456 (965)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.9K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.7K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $1.0K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $984.54
bosona
Down — $816.52