Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
64
Down 73%
2 arb excluded
$14.8K
$-14.9K
Smart Money Signal
47 of 64 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-7.5K | 56% 129-102 (231) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.3K | — 0-2 (2) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 88.5¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | -$2.29 | 60% 623-421 (1044) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.0K | 46% 432-516 (948) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.91 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 79.1¢ | $890.75 | $893.97 | +$3.22 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 49.1¢ | $315.91 | $643.66 | +$327.75 | 49% 727-769 (1496) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 71¢ | $636.98 | $622.43 | -$14.55 | 42% 429-598 (1027) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 74.3¢ | $2.4K | $650.42 | +$16.54 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
AL almach | Downavg 47¢ | $312.66 | $535.12 | +$222.46 | 48% 784-859 (1643) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 68.4¢ | $493.3 | $518.43 | +$25.12 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 47.8¢ | $398.75 | $834.19 | +$435.43 | 51% 422-410 (832) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 86.5¢ | $469.69 | $404.28 | -$65.41 | 42% 672-911 (1583) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 70.9¢ | $394.16 | $371.82 | -$17.64 | 52% 563-518 (1081) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 81.7¢ | $284.8 | $344.59 | +$59.79 | 46% 1227-1428 (2655) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 36.2¢ | $823.67 | — | -$823.67 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 52.1¢ | $229.85 | $408.09 | +$178.25 | 46% 610-705 (1315) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 81.4¢ | $235.02 | $258.31 | +$23.29 | 50% 464-455 (919) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 83.2¢ | $235.82 | $247.21 | +$11.39 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
BO bosona | Downavg 62.6¢ | $179.02 | $224.34 | +$45.32 | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 96.5¢ | $297.53 | $229 | -$58.44 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 58¢ | $166.69 | $239.99 | +$73.3 | 47% 1280-1435 (2715) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 61.7¢ | $143.57 | $225.61 | +$82.05 | 58% 568-409 (977) |
Invested
$8,934
Value
—
PnL
$-7.5K
Record
56%
129-102 (231)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.3K
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$3,127.41
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$2.29
Record
60%
623-421 (1044)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.0K
Record
46%
432-516 (948)
Invested
$1,158.09
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.91
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$890.75
Value
$893.97
PnL
+$3.22
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$315.91
Value
$643.66
PnL
+$327.75
Record
49%
727-769 (1496)
Invested
$636.98
Value
$622.43
PnL
-$14.55
Record
42%
429-598 (1027)
Invested
$2,406.99
Value
$650.42
PnL
+$16.54
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$312.66
Value
$535.12
PnL
+$222.46
Record
48%
784-859 (1643)
Invested
$493.3
Value
$518.43
PnL
+$25.12
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$398.75
Value
$834.19
PnL
+$435.43
Record
51%
422-410 (832)
machinelearnedInvested
$469.69
Value
$404.28
PnL
-$65.41
Record
42%
672-911 (1583)
Invested
$394.16
Value
$371.82
PnL
-$17.64
Record
52%
563-518 (1081)
Invested
$284.8
Value
$344.59
PnL
+$59.79
Record
46%
1227-1428 (2655)
Invested
$823.67
Value
—
PnL
-$823.67
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$229.85
Value
$408.09
PnL
+$178.25
Record
46%
610-705 (1315)
Invested
$235.02
Value
$258.31
PnL
+$23.29
Record
50%
464-455 (919)
Invested
$235.82
Value
$247.21
PnL
+$11.39
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
Invested
$179.02
Value
$224.34
PnL
+$45.32
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$297.53
Value
$229
PnL
-$58.44
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$166.69
Value
$239.99
PnL
+$73.3
Record
47%
1280-1435 (2715)
Invested
$143.57
Value
$225.61
PnL
+$82.05
Record
58%
568-409 (977)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $3.1K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
blue.birds
Down — $893.97
PBot-5
Down — $643.66
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $622.43
uninformedfloww
Down — $650.42
almach
Down — $535.12