Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 69%
2 arb excluded
$21.7K
$-7.7K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 55 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $9.1K | $8.3K | +$69.67 | 56% 129-102 (231) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | — 0-2 (2) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35.89 | 99% 507-3 (510) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.1K | 46% 432-516 (948) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 55.3¢ | $643.6 | $1.2K | +$521.02 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
AL almach | Downavg 89.8¢ | $593.77 | $653.76 | +$59.99 | 48% 784-859 (1643) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 57.2¢ | $514.87 | $543.93 | +$29.06 | 42% 429-598 (1027) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 83.5¢ | $491.11 | $525.76 | +$34.65 | 49% 486-498 (984) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$519.36 | 51% 2068-2013 (4081) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 63.6¢ | $466.57 | $488.79 | +$22.22 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 54.7¢ | $449.56 | $436.5 | -$13.06 | 46% 610-705 (1315) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 57¢ | $445.61 | $437.46 | -$8.15 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 47¢ | $438.17 | $932.02 | +$493.85 | 48% 2153-2339 (4492) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 56.9¢ | $434.97 | $426.59 | -$8.38 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 72.8¢ | $374.62 | $382.76 | +$8.14 | 47% 787-874 (1661) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 54.9¢ | $376.53 | $379.78 | +$6.74 | 60% 623-421 (1044) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 65.4¢ | $315.13 | $367.07 | +$53.04 | 43% 458-609 (1067) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 81.2¢ | $365.3 | $365 | -$0.3 | 60% 595-393 (988) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 68.9¢ | $253.31 | $306.56 | +$53.25 | 58% 568-409 (977) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 55.1¢ | $282.36 | $300.65 | +$18.29 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 56.2¢ | $267.26 | $249.11 | +$115.68 | 60% 577-388 (965) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $199.35 | $205.95 | +$6.6 | 49% 446-468 (914) |
BO bosona | Downavg 79.5¢ | $163.53 | $203.09 | +$39.56 | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
Invested
$9,116.1
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$69.67
Record
56%
129-102 (231)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$3,464.11
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35.89
Record
99%
507-3 (510)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
46%
432-516 (948)
Invested
$643.6
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$521.02
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$593.77
Value
$653.76
PnL
+$59.99
Record
48%
784-859 (1643)
Invested
$514.87
Value
$543.93
PnL
+$29.06
Record
42%
429-598 (1027)
Invested
$491.11
Value
$525.76
PnL
+$34.65
Record
49%
486-498 (984)
Invested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$519.36
Record
51%
2068-2013 (4081)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$466.57
Value
$488.79
PnL
+$22.22
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$449.56
Value
$436.5
PnL
-$13.06
Record
46%
610-705 (1315)
Invested
$445.61
Value
$437.46
PnL
-$8.15
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
Invested
$438.17
Value
$932.02
PnL
+$493.85
Record
48%
2153-2339 (4492)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$434.97
Value
$426.59
PnL
-$8.38
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$374.62
Value
$382.76
PnL
+$8.14
Record
47%
787-874 (1661)
Invested
$376.53
Value
$379.78
PnL
+$6.74
Record
60%
623-421 (1044)
Invested
$315.13
Value
$367.07
PnL
+$53.04
Record
43%
458-609 (1067)
Invested
$365.3
Value
$365
PnL
-$0.3
Record
60%
595-393 (988)
Invested
$253.31
Value
$306.56
PnL
+$53.25
Record
58%
568-409 (977)
Invested
$282.36
Value
$300.65
PnL
+$18.29
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
Invested
$267.26
Value
$249.11
PnL
+$115.68
Record
60%
577-388 (965)
Invested
$199.35
Value
$205.95
PnL
+$6.6
Record
49%
446-468 (914)
Invested
$163.53
Value
$203.09
PnL
+$39.56
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.3K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.2K
almach
Down — $653.76
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $543.93
EZTRADENL2
Down — $525.76
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0