Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Down 80%
7 arb excluded
$35.3K
$-11.7K
Smart Money Signal
47 of 59 top traders (80%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-7.1K | 56% 129-102 (231) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $6.5K | $6.5K | +$6.94 | 49% 860-907 (1767) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.7K | +$49.71 | — 0-2 (2) |
TH THG. | Downavg 98.2¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$63.08 | 99% 507-3 (510) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 46% 432-516 (948) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 82¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$34.56 | 60% 623-421 (1044) |
BO bosona | Downavg 83.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$167.25 | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$13.68 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 74.5¢ | $849.71 | $1.1K | +$248.13 | 47% 787-874 (1661) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$5.65 | 47% 870-993 (1863) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 89.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$35.26 | 42% 672-911 (1583) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 83.6¢ | $973.3 | $871.29 | -$91.41 | 52% 1296-1214 (2510) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $712.92 | $827.79 | +$114.86 | 49% 486-498 (984) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 78.1¢ | $954.26 | $766.92 | -$187.33 | 49% 446-468 (914) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.5¢ | $668.7 | $727.54 | +$58.83 | 46% 610-705 (1315) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 79.7¢ | $784.05 | $715.58 | -$68.47 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 76.3¢ | $696.54 | $634.54 | -$62 | 42% 429-598 (1027) |
AL almach | Downavg 80.1¢ | $930.45 | $610.53 | +$28.96 | 48% 784-859 (1643) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 81.6¢ | $754.24 | $606.35 | -$147.9 | 50% 464-455 (919) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 79.4¢ | $491.88 | $601.3 | +$109.42 | 50% 459-460 (919) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $406.68 | $471.12 | +$64.44 | 50% 467-464 (931) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 71.3¢ | $471.04 | $457.36 | -$13.68 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 19.5¢ | $761.66 | — | -$761.66 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
Invested
$8,514
Value
—
PnL
$-7.1K
Record
56%
129-102 (231)
Invested
$6,465.34
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$6.94
Record
49%
860-907 (1767)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$49.71
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$3,436.92
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$63.08
Record
99%
507-3 (510)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
46%
432-516 (948)
Invested
$2,908.6
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$34.56
Record
60%
623-421 (1044)
Invested
$1,216.36
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$167.25
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
Invested
$1,157.32
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$13.68
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$849.71
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$248.13
Record
47%
787-874 (1661)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$1,028.97
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$5.65
Record
47%
870-993 (1863)
machinelearnedInvested
$1,006.21
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$35.26
Record
42%
672-911 (1583)
Invested
$973.3
Value
$871.29
PnL
-$91.41
Record
52%
1296-1214 (2510)
Invested
$712.92
Value
$827.79
PnL
+$114.86
Record
49%
486-498 (984)
Invested
$954.26
Value
$766.92
PnL
-$187.33
Record
49%
446-468 (914)
Invested
$668.7
Value
$727.54
PnL
+$58.83
Record
46%
610-705 (1315)
Invested
$784.05
Value
$715.58
PnL
-$68.47
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$696.54
Value
$634.54
PnL
-$62
Record
42%
429-598 (1027)
Invested
$930.45
Value
$610.53
PnL
+$28.96
Record
48%
784-859 (1643)
Invested
$754.24
Value
$606.35
PnL
-$147.9
Record
50%
464-455 (919)
Invested
$491.88
Value
$601.3
PnL
+$109.42
Record
50%
459-460 (919)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$406.68
Value
$471.12
PnL
+$64.44
Record
50%
467-464 (931)
Invested
$471.04
Value
$457.36
PnL
-$13.68
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
Invested
$761.66
Value
—
PnL
-$761.66
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $6.5K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.7K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $2.9K
bosona
Down — $1.4K
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
mo-money
Down — $1.1K
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $1.0K