Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 64%
7 arb excluded
$20.5K
$-10.6K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 55 top traders (64%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $7.9K | +$154.76 | 56% 129-102 (231) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | — 0-2 (2) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 46% 432-516 (948) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 87.1¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$64.88 | 60% 623-421 (1044) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 53.2¢ | $940.43 | $963.69 | +$49.35 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 44.4¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.1K | 42% 429-598 (1027) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 54.6¢ | $496.65 | $909.82 | +$413.18 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 54.5¢ | $555.04 | $645.76 | +$90.72 | 43% 458-609 (1067) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 81.6¢ | $519.54 | $605.49 | +$85.96 | 52% 563-518 (1081) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 63.7¢ | $704.29 | $578.48 | -$125.82 | 46% 610-705 (1315) |
BO bosona | Downavg 90.9¢ | $547.24 | $591.41 | +$44.16 | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
ST stepahead | Downavg 54¢ | $409.72 | $407.04 | -$2.68 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 63.7¢ | $378.73 | $404.27 | +$25.54 | 56% 543-425 (968) |
RA rabadabadoo | Downavg 55.9¢ | $356.98 | $384.46 | +$27.48 | 47% 908-1031 (1939) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 55.4¢ | $305.32 | $337.85 | +$32.54 | 53% 4211-3679 (7890) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 46.7¢ | $349.3 | $302.92 | +$4.45 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.5¢ | $137.95 | $302.92 | +$170.02 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.7¢ | $165.19 | — | -$165.57 | |
 ohioism | Downavg 56.9¢ | $224.31 | $259.19 | +$34.88 | 48% 1250-1346 (2596) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $353.41 | $268.51 | +$54.89 | 60% 595-393 (988) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.5¢ | $149.05 | $268.51 | +$116.83 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.6¢ | $68.62 | — | -$61.93 | |
 machinelearned | Downavg 60.4¢ | $164.24 | $225 | +$60.76 | 42% 672-911 (1583) |
SP spartacrayARB<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $213.61 | $290.09 | +$102.09 | 58% 568-409 (977) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51¢ | $147.91 | $290.09 | +$142.89 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33¢ | $38.94 | — | -$40.79 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $218.79 | $221 | +$2.21 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 70.9¢ | $197.73 | $206.29 | +$8.57 | 49% 486-498 (984) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 54.7¢ | $199.38 | $292.26 | +$109.75 | 60% 577-388 (965) |
Invested
$8,782
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$154.76
Record
56%
129-102 (231)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
46%
432-516 (948)
Invested
$2,482.34
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$64.88
Record
60%
623-421 (1044)
Invested
$940.43
Value
$963.69
PnL
+$49.35
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$1,156.81
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
42%
429-598 (1027)
Invested
$496.65
Value
$909.82
PnL
+$413.18
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$555.04
Value
$645.76
PnL
+$90.72
Record
43%
458-609 (1067)
Invested
$519.54
Value
$605.49
PnL
+$85.96
Record
52%
563-518 (1081)
Invested
$704.29
Value
$578.48
PnL
-$125.82
Record
46%
610-705 (1315)
Invested
$547.24
Value
$591.41
PnL
+$44.16
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$409.72
Value
$407.04
PnL
-$2.68
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
Invested
$378.73
Value
$404.27
PnL
+$25.54
Record
56%
543-425 (968)
Invested
$356.98
Value
$384.46
PnL
+$27.48
Record
47%
908-1031 (1939)
FairValueMachineInvested
$305.32
Value
$337.85
PnL
+$32.54
Record
53%
4211-3679 (7890)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$349.3
Value
$302.92
PnL
+$4.45
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Both legs:
ohioismInvested
$224.31
Value
$259.19
PnL
+$34.88
Record
48%
1250-1346 (2596)
Invested
$353.41
Value
$268.51
PnL
+$54.89
Record
60%
595-393 (988)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$164.24
Value
$225
PnL
+$60.76
Record
42%
672-911 (1583)
Invested
$213.61
Value
$290.09
PnL
+$102.09
Record
58%
568-409 (977)
Both legs:
Invested
$218.79
Value
$221
PnL
+$2.21
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$197.73
Value
$206.29
PnL
+$8.57
Record
49%
486-498 (984)
Invested
$199.38
Value
$292.26
PnL
+$109.75
Record
60%
577-388 (965)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.9K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $2.4K
blue.birds
Down — $963.69
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $909.82
GoodFallen
Down — $645.76
wzbbb
Down — $605.49
CrouchPredictions
Down — $578.48