Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Down 63%
7 arb excluded
$20.5K
$-12.7K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 57 top traders (61%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.5K | 56% 129-102 (231) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | — 0-2 (2) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.6K | +$37.99 | 46% 432-516 (948) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.8K | $3.6K | +$1.8K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.8K | |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 507-3 (510) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98.9¢ | $2.8K | $2.4K | -$337.48 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 48.9¢ | $957.81 | $1.1K | +$207 | 60% 623-421 (1044) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 47.7¢ | $880.89 | $913.72 | +$85.82 | 42% 429-598 (1027) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 52.2¢ | $599.78 | $688.8 | +$89.03 | 46% 610-705 (1315) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 52.8¢ | $579 | $586.52 | +$7.52 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $528.11 | $538.89 | +$10.78 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 49.1¢ | $259.93 | $518.91 | +$258.97 | 47% 787-874 (1661) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 53.6¢ | $477.82 | $508.55 | +$58.21 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 55.3¢ | $465.99 | $503.23 | +$37.24 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BO bosona | Downavg 57.7¢ | $286.96 | $491.94 | +$204.98 | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 76¢ | $447.47 | $486.53 | +$39.05 | 49% 486-498 (984) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 61.8¢ | $301.51 | $478.36 | +$176.85 | 50% 459-460 (919) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 42.5¢ | $384.58 | $440.1 | +$79.79 | 43% 458-609 (1067) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 64.6¢ | $314.63 | $384.93 | +$106.21 | 60% 595-393 (988) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 59.5¢ | $319.63 | $375.94 | +$56.31 | 52% 563-518 (1081) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.8¢ | $149.48 | $375.94 | +$226.46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.5¢ | $170.15 | — | -$170.15 | |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 58¢ | $293.38 | $355.23 | +$61.85 | 60% 577-388 (965) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 55.3¢ | $265.08 | $267.33 | +$2.24 | 49% 446-468 (914) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 55.7¢ | $244.04 | $287.93 | +$119.04 | 58% 568-409 (977) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $262.5 | $215.93 | -$46.57 | 53% 509-456 (965) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.2¢ | $114.79 | $215.93 | +$101.13 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.6¢ | $147.71 | — | -$147.71 |
Invested
$8,642
Value
—
PnL
$-7.5K
Record
56%
129-102 (231)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$37.99
Record
46%
432-516 (948)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
507-3 (510)
Invested
$2,770.04
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$337.48
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$957.81
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$207
Record
60%
623-421 (1044)
Invested
$880.89
Value
$913.72
PnL
+$85.82
Record
42%
429-598 (1027)
Invested
$599.78
Value
$688.8
PnL
+$89.03
Record
46%
610-705 (1315)
Invested
$579
Value
$586.52
PnL
+$7.52
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$528.11
Value
$538.89
PnL
+$10.78
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$259.93
Value
$518.91
PnL
+$258.97
Record
47%
787-874 (1661)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$477.82
Value
$508.55
PnL
+$58.21
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$465.99
Value
$503.23
PnL
+$37.24
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$286.96
Value
$491.94
PnL
+$204.98
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
Invested
$447.47
Value
$486.53
PnL
+$39.05
Record
49%
486-498 (984)
Invested
$301.51
Value
$478.36
PnL
+$176.85
Record
50%
459-460 (919)
Invested
$384.58
Value
$440.1
PnL
+$79.79
Record
43%
458-609 (1067)
Invested
$314.63
Value
$384.93
PnL
+$106.21
Record
60%
595-393 (988)
Invested
$319.63
Value
$375.94
PnL
+$56.31
Record
52%
563-518 (1081)
Both legs:
Invested
$293.38
Value
$355.23
PnL
+$61.85
Record
60%
577-388 (965)
Invested
$265.08
Value
$267.33
PnL
+$2.24
Record
49%
446-468 (914)
Invested
$244.04
Value
$287.93
PnL
+$119.04
Record
58%
568-409 (977)
Invested
$262.5
Value
$215.93
PnL
-$46.57
Record
53%
509-456 (965)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $0
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
THG.
Down — $3.5K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.4K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.1K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $913.72
CrouchPredictions
Down — $688.8
blue.birds
Down — $586.52
hoodquant
Down — $538.89