Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
66
Down 66%
$30.4K
$-7.2K
Smart Money Signal
43 of 66 top traders (65%)23 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-6.6K | 56% 129-102 (231) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$23.36 | — 0-2 (2) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$32.99 | 46% 432-516 (948) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 507-3 (510) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.1K | +$28.62 | 49% 860-907 (1767) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 87.3¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$138.59 | 60% 623-421 (1044) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$24.92 | 98% 2209-44 (2253) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 95.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$33.25 | 46% 610-705 (1315) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99¢ | $990 | $1.0K | +$10 | 47% 870-993 (1863) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 45.9¢ | $555.14 | $774.07 | +$218.93 | 42% 429-598 (1027) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 80.9¢ | $651.31 | $747.36 | +$96.05 | 50% 467-464 (931) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 62.3¢ | $549.93 | $603.82 | +$79.06 | 53% 1336-1195 (2531) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 55.7¢ | $524.96 | $608.82 | +$83.86 | 55% 3891-3247 (7138) |
AL almach | Downavg 89.3¢ | $504.63 | $538 | +$33.38 | 48% 784-859 (1643) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 61.3¢ | $499.2 | $526.29 | +$27.09 | 52% 4022-3759 (7781) |
BO bosona | Downavg 72.9¢ | $432.32 | $510.08 | +$77.76 | 50% 4018-3992 (8010) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 85.9¢ | $469.22 | $501.74 | +$32.52 | 49% 486-498 (984) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
MO mo-money | Downavg 79.5¢ | $380.68 | $478.69 | +$98.02 | 47% 787-874 (1661) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 67.6¢ | $313.57 | $336.73 | +$23.16 | 53% 509-456 (965) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 49.6¢ | $361.68 | — | -$361.68 | 48% 1139-1229 (2368) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 48.1¢ | $255.96 | $300.94 | +$44.98 | 58% 568-409 (977) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 88.9¢ | $323.16 | $285.45 | -$37.71 | 42% 672-911 (1583) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 49¢ | $136.81 | $267 | +$130.19 | 49% 446-468 (914) |
Invested
$8,550
Value
—
PnL
$-6.6K
Record
56%
129-102 (231)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$23.36
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$32.99
Record
46%
432-516 (948)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
507-3 (510)
Invested
$3,027.78
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$28.62
Record
49%
860-907 (1767)
Invested
$2,588.21
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$138.59
Record
60%
623-421 (1044)
Invested
$1,749.08
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$24.92
Record
98%
2209-44 (2253)
Invested
$1,158.76
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$33.25
Record
46%
610-705 (1315)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$990
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10
Record
47%
870-993 (1863)
Invested
$555.14
Value
$774.07
PnL
+$218.93
Record
42%
429-598 (1027)
Invested
$651.31
Value
$747.36
PnL
+$96.05
Record
50%
467-464 (931)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$549.93
Value
$603.82
PnL
+$79.06
Record
53%
1336-1195 (2531)
Invested
$524.96
Value
$608.82
PnL
+$83.86
Record
55%
3891-3247 (7138)
Invested
$504.63
Value
$538
PnL
+$33.38
Record
48%
784-859 (1643)
Invested
$499.2
Value
$526.29
PnL
+$27.09
Record
52%
4022-3759 (7781)
Invested
$432.32
Value
$510.08
PnL
+$77.76
Record
50%
4018-3992 (8010)
Invested
$469.22
Value
$501.74
PnL
+$32.52
Record
49%
486-498 (984)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$380.68
Value
$478.69
PnL
+$98.02
Record
47%
787-874 (1661)
Invested
$313.57
Value
$336.73
PnL
+$23.16
Record
53%
509-456 (965)
Invested
$361.68
Value
—
PnL
-$361.68
Record
48%
1139-1229 (2368)
Invested
$255.96
Value
$300.94
PnL
+$44.98
Record
58%
568-409 (977)
machinelearnedInvested
$323.16
Value
$285.45
PnL
-$37.71
Record
42%
672-911 (1583)
Invested
$136.81
Value
$267
PnL
+$130.19
Record
49%
446-468 (914)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
machine-earning
Down — $3.8K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
0x50f7
Down — $3.1K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.7K
hoodquant
Down — $1.8K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.2K
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $1.0K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $774.07